Discovering causal relations is fundamental to reasoning and intelligence. In particular, observational causal discovery algorithms estimate the cause-effect relation between two random entities $X$ and $Y$, given $n$ samples from $P(X,Y)$. In this paper, we develop a framework to estimate the cause-effect relation between two static entities $x$ and $y$: for instance, an art masterpiece $x$ and its fraudulent copy $y$. To this end, we introduce the notion of proxy variables, which allow the construction of a pair of random entities $(A,B)$ from the pair of static entities $(x,y)$. Then, estimating the cause-effect relation between $A$ and $B$ using an observational causal discovery algorithm leads to an estimation of the cause-effect relation between $x$ and $y$. For example, our framework detects the causal relation between unprocessed photographs and their modifications, and orders in time a set of shuffled frames from a video. As our main case study, we introduce a human-elicited dataset of 10,000 pairs of casually-linked pairs of words from natural language. Our methods discover 75% of these causal relations. Finally, we discuss the role of proxy variables in machine learning, as a general tool to incorporate static knowledge into prediction tasks.

Learning rates for regularized least-squares algorithms are in most cases expressed with respect to the excess risk, or equivalently, the $L_2$-norm. For some applications, however, guarantees with respect to stronger norms such as the $L_\infty$-norm, are desirable. We address this problem by establishing learning rates for a continuous scale of norms between the $L_2$- and the RKHS norm. As a byproduct we derive $L_\infty$-norm learning rates, and in the case of Sobolev RKHSs we actually obtain Sobolev norm learning rates, which may also imply $L_\infty$-norm rates for some derivatives. In all cases, we do not need to assume the target function to be contained in the used RKHS. Finally, we show that in many cases the derived rates are minimax optimal.

In this paper, we propose PCKID, a novel, robust, kernel function for spectral clustering, specifically designed to handle incomplete data. By combining posterior distributions of Gaussian Mixture Models for incomplete data on different scales, we are able to learn a kernel for incomplete data that does not depend on any critical hyperparameters, unlike the commonly used RBF kernel. To evaluate our method, we perform experiments on two real datasets. PCKID outperforms the baseline methods for all fractions of missing values and in some cases outperforms the baseline methods with up to 25 percentage points.

Many modern commercial sites employ recommender systems to propose relevant content to users. While most systems are focused on maximizing the immediate gain (clicks, purchases or ratings), a better notion of success would be the lifetime value (LTV) of the user-system interaction. The LTV approach considers the future implications of the item recommendation, and seeks to maximize the cumulative gain over time. The Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework is the standard formulation for optimizing cumulative successes over time. However, RL is rarely used in practice due to its associated representation, optimization and validation techniques which can be complex. In this paper we propose a new architecture for combining RL with recommendation systems which obviates the need for hand-tuned features, thus automating the state-space representation construction process. We analyze the practical difficulties in this formulation and test our solutions on batch off-line real-world recommendation data.

The problem of on-line off-policy evaluation (OPE) has been actively studied in the last decade due to its importance both as a stand-alone problem and as a module in a policy improvement scheme. However, most Temporal Difference (TD) based solutions ignore the discrepancy between the stationary distribution of the behavior and target policies and its effect on the convergence limit when function approximation is applied. In this paper we propose the Consistent Off-Policy Temporal Difference (COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$)) algorithm that addresses this issue and reduces this bias at some computational expense. We show that COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$) can be designed to converge to the same value that would have been obtained by using on-policy TD($\lambda$) with the target policy. Subsequently, the proposed scheme leads to a related and promising heuristic we call log-COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$). Both algorithms have favorable empirical results to the current state of the art on-line OPE algorithms. Finally, our formulation sheds some new light on the recently proposed Emphatic TD learning.

In application domains such as healthcare, we want accurate predictive models that are also causally interpretable. In pursuit of such models, we propose a causal regularizer to steer predictive models towards causally-interpretable solutions and theoretically study its properties. In a large-scale analysis of Electronic Health Records (EHR), our causally-regularized model outperforms its L1-regularized counterpart in causal accuracy and is competitive in predictive performance. We perform non-linear causality analysis by causally regularizing a special neural network architecture. We also show that the proposed causal regularizer can be used together with neural representation learning algorithms to yield up to 20% improvement over multilayer perceptron in detecting multivariate causation, a situation common in healthcare, where many causal factors should occur simultaneously to have an effect on the target variable.

We introduce a simple permutation equivariant layer for deep learning with set structure.This type of layer, obtained by parameter-sharing, has a simple implementation and linear-time complexity in the size of each set. We use deep permutation-invariant networks to perform point-could classification and MNIST-digit summation, where in both cases the output is invariant to permutations of the input. In a semi-supervised setting, where the goal is make predictions for each instance within a set, we demonstrate the usefulness of this type of layer in set-outlier detection as well as semi-supervised learning with clustering side-information.

By restricting the iterate on a nonlinear manifold, the recently proposed Riemannian optimization methods prove to be both efficient and effective in low rank tensor completion problems. However, existing methods fail to exploit the easily accessible side information, due to their format mismatch. Consequently, there is still room for improvement in such methods. To fill the gap, in this paper, a novel Riemannian model is proposed to organically integrate the original model and the side information by overcoming their inconsistency. For this particular model, an efficient Riemannian conjugate gradient descent solver is devised based on a new metric that captures the curvature of the objective. Numerical experiments suggest that our solver is more accurate than the state-of-the-art without compromising the efficiency.

Modern convolutional networks, incorporating rectifiers and max-pooling, are neither smooth nor convex. Standard guarantees therefore do not apply. Nevertheless, methods from convex optimization such as gradient descent and Adam are widely used as building blocks for deep learning algorithms. This paper provides the first convergence guarantee applicable to modern convnets. The guarantee matches a lower bound for convex nonsmooth functions. The key technical tool is the neural Taylor approximation -- a straightforward application of Taylor expansions to neural networks -- and the associated Taylor loss. Experiments on a range of optimizers, layers, and tasks provide evidence that the analysis accurately captures the dynamics of neural optimization. The second half of the paper applies the Taylor approximation to isolate the main difficulty in training rectifier nets: that gradients are shattered. We investigate the hypothesis that, by exploring the space of activation configurations more thoroughly, adaptive optimizers such as RMSProp and Adam are able to converge to better solutions.

Inside a simple computer simulation, a group of self-driving cars are performing a crazy-looking maneuver on a four-lane virtual highway. Half are trying to move from the right-hand lanes just as the other half try to merge from the left. It seems like just the sort of tricky thing that might flummox a robot vehicle, but they manage it with precision. I'm watching the driving simulation at the biggest artificial-intelligence conference of the year, held in Barcelona this past December. What's most amazing is that the software governing the cars' behavior wasn't programmed in the conventional sense at all.