Local Process Models (LPM) describe structured fragments of process behavior occurring in the context of less structured business processes. Traditional LPM discovery aims to generate a collection of process models that describe highly frequent behavior, but these models do not always provide useful answers for questions posed by process analysts aiming at business process improvement. We propose a framework for goal-driven LPM discovery, based on utility functions and constraints. We describe four scopes on which these utility functions and constrains can be defined, and show that utility functions and constraints on different scopes can be combined to form composite utility functions/constraints. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our approach by presenting several actionable business insights discovered with LPM discovery on two real life data sets.

Multivariate binary distributions can be decomposed into products of univariate conditional distributions. Recently popular approaches have modeled these conditionals through neural networks with sophisticated weight-sharing structures. It is shown that state-of-the-art performance on several standard benchmark datasets can actually be achieved by training separate probability estimators for each dimension. In that case, model training can be trivially parallelized over data dimensions. On the other hand, complexity control has to be performed for each learned conditional distribution. Three possible methods are considered and experimentally compared. The estimator that is employed for each conditional is LogitBoost. Similarities and differences between the proposed approach and autoregressive models based on neural networks are discussed in detail.

Syntactical antiunification reflects these abstraction techniques in the theoretically elegant domain of term algebras. In this article, we propose an extension, called E-anti-unification or E-generalization, which also provides a way of coping with the well-known problem of representation change [O'H92,DIS97]. It allows us to perform abstraction while modeling equivalent representations using appropriate equations between terms. This means that all equivalent representations are considered simultaneously in the abstraction process. Abstraction becomes insensitive to representation changes. In 1970, Plotkin and Reynolds [Plo70,Plo71,Rey70] introduced the notion of (syntactical) anti-unification of terms as the dual operation to unification: while the latter computes the most general common specialization of the given 1 1. x 0 x 2. x s(y) s(x y) 3. x 0 0 4. x s(y) x y x 0

We propose a technique for producing "visual explanations" for decisions from a large class of CNN-based models, making them more transparent. Our approach - Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM), uses the gradients of any target concept, flowing into the final convolutional layer to produce a coarse localization map highlighting the important regions in the image for predicting the concept. Unlike previous approaches, GradCAM is applicable to a wide variety of CNN model-families: (1) CNNs with fully-connected layers (e.g. VGG), (2) CNNs used for structured outputs (e.g. captioning), (3) CNNs used in tasks with multimodal inputs (e.g. VQA) or reinforcement learning, without any architectural changes or re-training. We combine GradCAM with fine-grained visualizations to create a high-resolution class-discriminative visualization and apply it to off-the-shelf image classification, captioning, and visual question answering (VQA) models, including ResNet-based architectures. In the context of image classification models, our visualizations (a) lend insights into their failure modes (showing that seemingly unreasonable predictions have reasonable explanations), (b) are robust to adversarial images, (c) outperform previous methods on weakly-supervised localization, (d) are more faithful to the underlying model and (e) help achieve generalization by identifying dataset bias. For captioning and VQA, our visualizations show that even non-attention based models can localize inputs. Finally, we conduct human studies to measure if GradCAM explanations help users establish trust in predictions from deep networks and show that GradCAM helps untrained users successfully discern a "stronger" deep network from a "weaker" one. Our code is available at https://github.com/ramprs/grad-cam. A demo and a video of the demo can be found at http://gradcam.cloudcv.org and youtu.be/COjUB9Izk6E.

We investigate different strategies for active learning with Bayesian deep neural networks. We focus our analysis on scenarios where new, unlabeled data is obtained episodically, such as commonly encountered in mobile robotics applications. An evaluation of different strategies for acquisition, updating, and final training on the CIFAR-10 dataset shows that incremental network updates with final training on the accumulated acquisition set are essential for best performance, while limiting the amount of required human labeling labor.

However, some users may create multiple identities, or sockpuppets, and engage in undesired behavior by deceiving others or manipulating discussions. In this work, we study sockpuppetry across nine discussion communities, and show that sockpuppets differ from ordinary users in terms of their posting behavior, linguistic traits, as well as social network structure. Sockpuppets tend to start fewer discussions, write shorter posts, use more personal pronouns such as "I", and have more clustered ego-networks. Further, pairs of sockpuppets controlled by the same individual are more likely to interact on the same discussion at the same time than pairs of ordinary users. Our analysis suggests a taxonomy of deceptive behavior in discussion communities. Pairs of sockpuppets can vary in their deceptiveness, i.e., whether they pretend to be different users, or their supportiveness, i.e., if they support arguments of other sockpuppets controlled by the same user. We apply these findings to a series of prediction tasks, notably, to identify whether a pair of accounts belongs to the same underlying user or not. Altogether, this work presents a data-driven view of deception in online discussion communities and paves the way towards the automatic detection of sockpuppets.

Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a comparatively small number of parameters, intrinsic errors from sampling fluctuations may outweigh the differences in the log marginal likelihood estimates. In the present article, we propose a thermodynamic integration scheme that directly targets the log Bayes factor. The method is based on a modified annealing path between the posterior distributions of the two models compared, which systematically avoids the high variance prior regime. We combine this scheme with the concept of non-equilibrium TI to minimise discretisation errors from numerical integration. Results obtained on Bayesian regression models applied to standard benchmark data, and a complex hierarchical model applied to biopathway inference, demonstrate a significant reduction in estimator variance over state-of-the-art TI methods.

It is generally accepted that all models are wrong -- the difficulty is determining which are useful. Here, a useful model is considered as one that is capable of combining data and expert knowledge, through an inversion or calibration process, to adequately characterize the uncertainty in predictions of interest. This paper derives conditions that specify which simplified models are useful and how they should be calibrated. To start, the notion of an optimal simplification is defined. This relates the model simplifications to the nature of the data and predictions, and determines when a standard probabilistic calibration scheme is capable of accurately characterizing uncertainty. Furthermore, two additional conditions are defined for suboptimal models that determine when the simplifications can be safely ignored. The first allows a suboptimally simplified model to be used in a way that replicates the performance of an optimal model. This is achieved through the judicial selection of a prior term for the calibration process that explicitly includes the nature of the data, predictions and modelling simplifications. The second considers the dependency structure between the predictions and the available data to gain insights into when the simplifications can be overcome by using the right calibration data. Furthermore, the derived conditions are related to the commonly used calibration schemes based on Tikhonov and subspace regularization. To allow concrete insights to be obtained, the analysis is performed under a linear expansion of the model equations and where the predictive uncertainty is characterized via second order moments only.

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear whether the fixed point identified by the variational inference algorithm is a local or a global optimum. Here, we propose a method for constructing iterative optimization algorithms for variational inference problems that are guaranteed to converge to the $\epsilon$-global variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. We derive inference algorithms for two variational approximations to a standard Bayesian Gaussian mixture model (BGMM). We present a minimal data set for empirically testing convergence and show that a variational inference algorithm frequently converges to a local optimum while our algorithm always converges to the globally optimal variational lower bound. We characterize the loss incurred by choosing a non-optimal variational approximation distribution suggesting that selection of the approximating variational distribution deserves as much attention as the selection of the original statistical model for a given data set.

Current approaches for Knowledge Distillation (KD) either directly use training data or sample from the training data distribution. In this paper, we demonstrate effectiveness of 'mismatched' unlabeled stimulus to perform KD for image classification networks. For illustration, we consider scenarios where this is a complete absence of training data, or mismatched stimulus has to be used for augmenting a small amount of training data. We demonstrate that stimulus complexity is a key factor for distillation's good performance. Our examples include use of various datasets for stimulating MNIST and CIFAR teachers.