This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inference system. The interface can be seen as a stochastic generalization of a standard simulation and density interface for probabilistic primitives. We show that sound approximate inference algorithms can be constructed for networks of probabilistic modules, and we demonstrate that the interface can be implemented using learned stochastic inference networks and MCMC and SMC approximate inference programs.

Adversarial training provides a means of regularizing supervised learning algorithms while virtual adversarial training is able to extend supervised learning algorithms to the semi-supervised setting. However, both methods require making small perturbations to numerous entries of the input vector, which is inappropriate for sparse high-dimensional inputs such as one-hot word representations. We extend adversarial and virtual adversarial training to the text domain by applying perturbations to the word embeddings in a recurrent neural network rather than to the original input itself. The proposed method achieves state of the art results on multiple benchmark semi-supervised and purely supervised tasks. We provide visualizations and analysis showing that the learned word embeddings have improved in quality and that while training, the model is less prone to overfitting.

Online health communities are a valuable source of information for patients and physicians. However, such user-generated resources are often plagued by inaccuracies and misinformation. In this work we propose a method for automatically establishing the credibility of user-generated medical statements and the trustworthiness of their authors by exploiting linguistic cues and distant supervision from expert sources. To this end we introduce a probabilistic graphical model that jointly learns user trustworthiness, statement credibility, and language objectivity. We apply this methodology to the task of extracting rare or unknown side-effects of medical drugs --- this being one of the problems where large scale non-expert data has the potential to complement expert medical knowledge. We show that our method can reliably extract side-effects and filter out false statements, while identifying trustworthy users that are likely to contribute valuable medical information.

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging since the learner interacts with the environment and possibly changes the future observations in the process. We devise a learning algorithm running through epochs, in each epoch we employ spectral techniques to learn the POMDP parameters from a trajectory generated by a fixed policy. At the end of the epoch, an optimization oracle returns the optimal memoryless planning policy which maximizes the expected reward based on the estimated POMDP model. We prove an order-optimal regret bound with respect to the optimal memoryless policy and efficient scaling with respect to the dimensionality of observation and action spaces.

We analyze the necessary number of samples for sparse vector recovery in a noisy linear prediction setup. This model includes problems such as linear regression and classification. We focus on structured graph models. In particular, we prove that sufficient number of samples for the weighted graph model proposed by Hegde and others is also necessary. We use the Fano's inequality on well constructed ensembles as our main tool in establishing information theoretic lower bounds.

A key limitation of sampling algorithms for approximate inference is that it is difficult to quantify their approximation error. Widely used sampling schemes, such as sequential importance sampling with resampling and Metropolis-Hastings, produce output samples drawn from a distribution that may be far from the target posterior distribution. This paper shows how to upper-bound the symmetric KL divergence between the output distribution of a broad class of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers and their target posterior distributions, subject to assumptions about the accuracy of a separate gold-standard sampler. The proposed method applies to samplers that combine multiple particles, multinomial resampling, and rejuvenation kernels. The experiments show the technique being used to estimate bounds on the divergence of SMC samplers for posterior inference in a Bayesian linear regression model and a Dirichlet process mixture model.

Online reviews provided by consumers are a valuable asset for e-Commerce platforms, influencing potential consumers in making purchasing decisions. However, these reviews are of varying quality, with the useful ones buried deep within a heap of non-informative reviews. In this work, we attempt to automatically identify review quality in terms of its helpfulness to the end consumers. In contrast to previous works in this domain exploiting a variety of syntactic and community-level features, we delve deep into the semantics of reviews as to what makes them useful, providing interpretable explanation for the same. We identify a set of consistency and semantic factors, all from the text, ratings, and timestamps of user-generated reviews, making our approach generalizable across all communities and domains. We explore review semantics in terms of several latent factors like the expertise of its author, his judgment about the fine-grained facets of the underlying product, and his writing style. These are cast into a Hidden Markov Model -- Latent Dirichlet Allocation (HMM-LDA) based model to jointly infer: (i) reviewer expertise, (ii) item facets, and (iii) review helpfulness. Large-scale experiments on five real-world datasets from Amazon show significant improvement over state-of-the-art baselines in predicting and ranking useful reviews.

Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidden patterns. We design two different classes of models suitable for large-scale analysis of mortality data, a Hadoop-based ensemble of random forests trained over N-grams, and the DeepDeath, a deep classifier based on the recurrent neural network (RNN). We apply both classes to the mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and show that while both perform significantly better than the random classifier, the deep model that utilizes long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), surpasses the N-gram based models and is capable of learning the temporal aspect of the data without a need for building ad-hoc, expert-driven features.

Current recommender systems exploit user and item similarities by collaborative filtering. Some advanced methods also consider the temporal evolution of item ratings as a global background process. However, all prior methods disregard the individual evolution of a user's experience level and how this is expressed in the user's writing in a review community. In this paper, we model the joint evolution of user experience, interest in specific item facets, writing style, and rating behavior. This way we can generate individual recommendations that take into account the user's maturity level (e.g., recommending art movies rather than blockbusters for a cinematography expert). As only item ratings and review texts are observables, we capture the user's experience and interests in a latent model learned from her reviews, vocabulary and writing style. We develop a generative HMM-LDA model to trace user evolution, where the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) traces her latent experience progressing over time -- with solely user reviews and ratings as observables over time. The facets of a user's interest are drawn from a Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model derived from her reviews, as a function of her (again latent) experience level. In experiments with five real-world datasets, we show that our model improves the rating prediction over state-of-the-art baselines, by a substantial margin. We also show, in a use-case study, that our model performs well in the assessment of user experience levels.

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