Machine learning algorithms are often showcased in customer churn study. Applications in fields such as telecommunication or product marketing (gaming, insurance etc..)(see [1],[2] for a recent review) are multiple. The implementation of these methods in Customer Relationship Management is becoming the new norm, as improving customer retention yields superior business results. We argue that this type of techniques can easily be applied to employee turnover. Note that the employee turnover can actually be subdivided in 3 buckets: involuntary turnover (induced by the company), voluntary turnover (employee resignation) and retirements. Retirement and an involuntary turnover are out of the scope of this paper.

Compressing neural nets is an active research problem, given the large size of state-of-the-art nets for tasks such as object recognition, and the computational limits imposed by mobile devices. We give a general formulation of model compression as constrained optimization. This includes many types of compression: quantization, low-rank decomposition, pruning, lossless compression and others. Then, we give a general algorithm to optimize this nonconvex problem based on the augmented Lagrangian and alternating optimization. This results in a "learning-compression" algorithm, which alternates a learning step of the uncompressed model, independent of the compression type, with a compression step of the model parameters, independent of the learning task. This simple, efficient algorithm is guaranteed to find the best compressed model for the task in a local sense under standard assumptions. We present separately in several companion papers the development of this general framework into specific algorithms for model compression based on quantization, pruning and other variations, including experimental results on compressing neural nets and other models.

We propose a generalization of neural network sequence models. Instead of predicting one symbol at a time, our multi-scale model makes predictions over multiple, potentially overlapping multi-symbol tokens. A variation of the byte-pair encoding (BPE) compression algorithm is used to learn the dictionary of tokens that the model is trained with. When applied to language modelling, our model has the flexibility of character-level models while maintaining many of the performance benefits of word-level models. Our experiments show that this model performs better than a regular LSTM on language modeling tasks, especially for smaller models.

In this paper, we introduce a new concept of stability for cross-validation, called the $\left( \beta, \varpi \right)$-stability, and use it as a new perspective to build the general theory for cross-validation. The $\left( \beta, \varpi \right)$-stability mathematically connects the generalization ability and the stability of the cross-validated model via the Rademacher complexity. Our result reveals mathematically the effect of cross-validation from two sides: on one hand, cross-validation picks the model with the best empirical generalization ability by validating all the alternatives on test sets; on the other hand, cross-validation may compromise the stability of the model selection by causing subsampling error. Moreover, the difference between training and test errors in q\textsuperscript{th} round, sometimes referred to as the generalization error, might be autocorrelated on q. Guided by the ideas above, the $\left( \beta, \varpi \right)$-stability help us derivd a new class of Rademacher bounds, referred to as the one-round/convoluted Rademacher bounds, for the stability of cross-validation in both the i.i.d.\ and non-i.i.d.\ cases. For both light-tail and heavy-tail losses, the new bounds quantify the stability of the one-round/average test error of the cross-validated model in terms of its one-round/average training error, the sample sizes $n$, number of folds $K$, the tail property of the loss (encoded as Orlicz-$\Psi_\nu$ norms) and the Rademacher complexity of the model class $\Lambda$. The new class of bounds not only quantitatively reveals the stability of the generalization ability of the cross-validated model, it also shows empirically the optimal choice for number of folds $K$, at which the upper bound of the one-round/average test error is lowest, or, to put it in another way, where the test error is most stable.

Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic forecasts, based on training an auto-regressive recurrent network model on a large number of related time series. We demonstrate how by applying deep learning techniques to forecasting, one can overcome many of the challenges faced by widely-used classical approaches to the problem. We show through extensive empirical evaluation on several real-world forecasting data sets that our methodology produces more accurate forecasts than other state-of-the-art methods, while requiring minimal manual work.

Metric learning methods for dimensionality reduction in combination with k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) have been extensively deployed in many classification, data embedding, and information retrieval applications. However, most of these approaches involve pairwise training data comparisons, and thus have quadratic computational complexity with respect to the size of training set, preventing them from scaling to fairly big datasets. Moreover, during testing, comparing test data against all the training data points is also expensive in terms of both computational cost and resources required. Furthermore, previous metrics are either too constrained or too expressive to be well learned. To effectively solve these issues, we present an exemplar-centered supervised shallow parametric data embedding model, using a Maximally Collapsing Metric Learning (MCML) objective. Our strategy learns a shallow high-order parametric embedding function and compares training/test data only with learned or precomputed exemplars, resulting in a cost function with linear computational complexity for both training and testing. We also empirically demonstrate, using several benchmark datasets, that for classification in two-dimensional embedding space, our approach not only gains speedup of kNN by hundreds of times, but also outperforms state-of-the-art supervised embedding approaches.

RAPHS are generic mathematical structures consisting of sets of vertices and edges, which are used for modeling pairwise relations (edges) between a number of objects (vertices). In practice, this representation is often extended to weighted graphs, for which a set of scalar values (weights) are assigned to edges and potentially to vertices. Thus, weighted graphs offer general and flexible representations for modeling affinity relations between the objects of interest. Many practical problems can be represented using weighted graphs. For example, a broad class of combinatorial problems such as weighted matching, shortest-path and network-flow [2] are defined using weighted graphs. In signal/data-oriented problems, weighted graphs provide concise (sparse) representations for robust modeling of signals/data [3]. Such graphbased models are also useful for analyzing and visualizing the relations between their samples/features. Moreover, weighted graphs naturally emerge in networked data applications, such as learning, signal processing and analysis on computer, social, sensor, energy, transportation and biological networks [4], where the signals/data are inherently related to a graph associated with the underlying network.

High-resolution satellite imagery have been increasingly used on remote sensing classification problems. One of the main factors is the availability of this kind of data. Even though, very little effort has been placed on the zebra crossing classification problem. In this letter, crowdsourcing systems are exploited in order to enable the automatic acquisition and annotation of a large-scale satellite imagery database for crosswalks related tasks. Then, this dataset is used to train deep-learning-based models in order to accurately classify satellite images that contains or not zebra crossings. A novel dataset with more than 240,000 images from 3 continents, 9 countries and more than 20 cities was used in the experiments. Experimental results showed that freely available crowdsourcing data can be used to accurately (97.11%) train robust models to perform crosswalk classification on a global scale.

A core challenge in the analysis of experimental data is that the impact of some intervention is often not entirely captured by a single, well-defined outcome. Instead there may be a large number of outcome variables that are potentially affected and of interest. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach rooted in machine learning to the problem of testing effects on such groups of outcome variables. It is based on two simple observations. First, the 'false-positive' problem that a group of outcomes is similar to the concern of 'over-fitting,' which has been the focus of a large literature in statistics and computer science. We can thus leverage sample-splitting methods from the machine-learning playbook that are designed to control over-fitting to ensure that statistical models express generalizable insights about treatment effects. The second simple observation is that the question whether treatment affects a group of variables is equivalent to the question whether treatment is predictable from these variables better than some trivial benchmark (provided treatment is assigned randomly). This formulation allows us to leverage data-driven predictors from the machine-learning literature to flexibly mine for effects, rather than rely on more rigid approaches like multiple-testing corrections and pre-analysis plans. We formulate a specific methodology and present three kinds of results: first, our test is exactly sized for the null hypothesis of no effect; second, a specific version is asymptotically equivalent to a benchmark joint Wald test in a linear regression; and third, this methodology can guide inference on where an intervention has effects. Finally, we argue that our approach can naturally deal with typical features of real-world experiments, and be adapted to baseline balance checks.

We propose generalized random forests, a method for non-parametric statistical estimation based on random forests (Breiman, 2001) that can be used to fit any quantity of interest identified as the solution to a set of local moment equations. Following the literature on local maximum likelihood estimation, our method operates at a particular point in covariate space by considering a weighted set of nearby training examples; however, instead of using classical kernel weighting functions that are prone to a strong curse of dimensionality, we use an adaptive weighting function derived from a forest designed to express heterogeneity in the specified quantity of interest. We propose a flexible, computationally efficient algorithm for growing generalized random forests, develop a large sample theory for our method showing that our estimates are consistent and asymptotically Gaussian, and provide an estimator for their asymptotic variance that enables valid confidence intervals. We use our approach to develop new methods for three statistical tasks: non-parametric quantile regression, conditional average partial effect estimation, and heterogeneous treatment effect estimation via instrumental variables. A software implementation, grf for R and C++, is available from CRAN.