In this paper, we propose an uncertainty-aware learning from demonstration method by presenting a novel uncertainty estimation method utilizing a mixture density network appropriate for modeling complex and noisy human behaviors. The proposed uncertainty acquisition can be done with a single forward path without Monte Carlo sampling and is suitable for real-time robotics applications. The properties of the proposed uncertainty measure are analyzed through three different synthetic examples, absence of data, heavy measurement noise, and composition of functions scenarios. We show that each case can be distinguished using the proposed uncertainty measure and presented an uncertainty-aware learn- ing from demonstration method of an autonomous driving using this property. The proposed uncertainty-aware learning from demonstration method outperforms other compared methods in terms of safety using a complex real-world driving dataset.

In this paper, we propose: (a) a restart schedule for an adaptive simulated annealer, and (b) parallel simulated annealing, with an adaptive and parameter-free annealing schedule. The foundation of our approach is the Modified Lam annealing schedule, which adaptively controls the temperature parameter to track a theoretically ideal rate of acceptance of neighboring states. A sequential implementation of Modified Lam simulated annealing is almost parameter-free. However, it requires prior knowledge of the annealing length. We eliminate this parameter using restarts, with an exponentially increasing schedule of annealing lengths. We then extend this restart schedule to parallel implementation, executing several Modified Lam simulated annealers in parallel, with varying initial annealing lengths, and our proposed parallel annealing length schedule. To validate our approach, we conduct experiments on an NP-Hard scheduling problem with sequence-dependent setup constraints. We compare our approach to fixed length restarts, both sequentially and in parallel. Our results show that our approach can achieve substantial performance gains, throughout the course of the run, demonstrating our approach to be an effective anytime algorithm.

Social dilemmas have been regarded as the essence of evolution game theory, in which the prisoner's dilemma game is the most famous metaphor for the problem of cooperation. Recent findings revealed people's behavior violated the Sure Thing Principle in such games. Classic probability methodologies have difficulty explaining the underlying mechanisms of people's behavior. In this paper, a novel quantum-like Bayesian Network was proposed to accommodate the paradoxical phenomenon. The special network can take interference into consideration, which is likely to be an efficient way to describe the underlying mechanism. With the assistance of belief entropy, named as Deng entropy, the paper proposes Belief Distance to render the model practical. Tested with empirical data, the proposed model is proved to be predictable and effective.

Explicitly or implicitly, most of dimensionality reduction methods need to determine which samples are neighbors and the similarity between the neighbors in the original highdimensional space. The projection matrix is then learned on the assumption that the neighborhood information (e.g., the similarity) is known and fixed prior to learning. However, it is difficult to precisely measure the intrinsic similarity of samples in high-dimensional space because of the curse of dimensionality. Consequently, the neighbors selected according to such similarity might and the projection matrix obtained according to such similarity and neighbors are not optimal in the sense of classification and generalization. To overcome the drawbacks, in this paper we propose to let the similarity and neighbors be variables and model them in low-dimensional space. Both the optimal similarity and projection matrix are obtained by minimizing a unified objective function. Nonnegative and sum-to-one constraints on the similarity are adopted. Instead of empirically setting the regularization parameter, we treat it as a variable to be optimized. It is interesting that the optimal regularization parameter is adaptive to the neighbors in low-dimensional space and has intuitive meaning. Experimental results on the YALE B, COIL-100, and MNIST datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

We propose a new framework for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) on truncated probability distributions with smooth underlying density functions. Traditional HMC requires computing the gradient of potential function associated with the target distribution, and therefore does not perform its full power on truncated distributions due to lack of continuity and differentiability. In our framework, we introduce a sharp sigmoid factor in the density function to approximate the probability drop at the truncation boundary. The target potential function is approximated by a new potential which smoothly extends to the entire sample space. HMC is then performed on the approximate potential. While our method is easy to implement and applies to a wide range of problems, it also achieves comparable computational efficiency on various sampling tasks compared to other baseline methods. RBHMC also gives rise to a new approach for Bayesian inference on constrained spaces.

Department of Informatics, King's College London; osvaldo.simeone@kcl.ac.uk ABSTRACT This monograph aims at providing an introduction to key concepts, algorithms, and theoretical frameworks in machine learning, including supervised and unsupervised learning, statistical learning theory, probabilistic graphical models and approximate inference. The intended readership consists of electrical engineers with a background in probability and linear algebra. The treatment builds on first principles, and organizes the main ideas according to clearly defined categories, such as discriminative and generative models, frequentist and Bayesian approaches, exact and approximate inference, directed and undirected models, and convex and non-convex optimization. The mathematical framework uses information-theoretic measures as a unifying tool. The text offers simple and reproducible numerical examples providing insights into key motivations and conclusions. Rather than providing exhaustive details on the existing myriad solutions in each specific category, for which the reader is referred to textbooks and papers, this monograph is meant as an entry point for an engineer into the literature on machine learning.

Autonomous vehicles are highly complex systems, required to function reliably in a wide variety of situations. Manually crafting software controllers for these vehicles is difficult, but there has been some success in using deep neural networks generated using machine-learning. However, deep neural networks are opaque to human engineers, rendering their correctness very difficult to prove manually; and existing automated techniques, which were not designed to operate on neural networks, fail to scale to large systems. This paper focuses on proving the adversarial robustness of deep neural networks, i.e. proving that small perturbations to a correctly-classified input to the network cannot cause it to be misclassified. We describe some of our recent and ongoing work on verifying the adversarial robustness of networks, and discuss some of the open questions we have encountered and how they might be addressed.

Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy consumption. In this experiment, the crowd generated hypotheses about factors that make one home different from another in terms of monthly energy usage. To implement this concept, we deployed a web-based system within which 627 residential electricity customers posed 632 questions that they thought predictive of energy usage. While this occurred, the same group provided 110,573 answers to these questions as they accumulated. Thus users both suggested the hypotheses that drive a predictive model and provided the data upon which the model is built. We used the resulting question and answer data to build a predictive model of monthly electric energy consumption, using random forest regression. Because of the sparse nature of the answer data, careful statistical work was needed to ensure that these models are valid. The results indicate that the crowd can generate useful hypotheses, despite the sparse nature of the dataset.

Recently, much work has been done on extending the scope of online learning and incremental stochastic optimization algorithms. In this paper we contribute to this effort in two ways: First, based on a new regret decomposition and a generalization of Bregman divergences, we provide a self-contained, modular analysis of the two workhorses of online learning: (general) adaptive versions of Mirror Descent (MD) and the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) algorithms. The analysis is done with extra care so as not to introduce assumptions not needed in the proofs and allows to combine, in a straightforward way, different algorithmic ideas (e.g., adaptivity, optimism, implicit updates) and learning settings (e.g., strongly convex or composite objectives). This way we are able to reprove, extend and refine a large body of the literature, while keeping the proofs concise. The second contribution is a byproduct of this careful analysis: We present algorithms with improved variational bounds for smooth, composite objectives, including a new family of optimistic MD algorithms with only one projection step per round. Furthermore, we provide a simple extension of adaptive regret bounds to practically relevant non-convex problem settings with essentially no extra effort.

The ability of many powerful machine learning algorithms to deal with large data sets without compromise is often hampered by computationally expensive linear algebra tasks, of which calculating the log determinant is a canonical example. In this paper we demonstrate the optimality of Maximum Entropy methods in approximating such calculations. We prove the equivalence between mean value constraints and sample expectations in the big data limit, that Covariance matrix eigenvalue distributions can be completely defined by moment information and that the reduction of the self entropy of a maximum entropy proposal distribution, achieved by adding more moments reduces the KL divergence between the proposal and true eigenvalue distribution. We empirically verify our results on a variety of SparseSuite matrices and establish best practices.