British Police Built a Sprawling Crime-Prediction Machine. Some Results Couldn't Be Trusted As UK police embrace the AI revolution, a WIRED investigation reveals the messy inside story of one region's experiment with predictive analytics. The Think Family Database holds records on close to half a million people who live in the city of Bristol, England. For many years, few of them knew anything about it. Launched in 2016 by the Bristol City Council and the regional Avon and Somerset Police, the database has stored all manner of sensitive information--police intelligence reports, housing status, mental health records, teenage pregnancies, enrollment in parenting courses, free school meals. On top of this sensitive data, officials built machine-learning models to assign scores to thousands of adults and children. They hoped to build what they called a "picture of threat, harm, and risk" in the region. At an event in early 2022 to help officials tackle child exploitation crimes, one police data scientist described part of the approach this way: "I essentially dump all that data in a big bucket and stir it with a data-science spatula, and we come out with a lovely risk score for everybody." This risk scoring inside the Think Family Database was just one part of Avon and Somerset Police's sprawling predictive analytics program.

Lost books by ancient philosophers recovered from'unreadable' scrolls Long-lost works of ancient philosophy have been recovered from papyrus scrolls that were scorched by the AD 79 eruption of Mount Vesuvius and thought to be impossible to read. For the first time, researchers have used AI to extract the entire surviving text from super-high-resolution 3D scans of a scroll without unrolling it. The scrolls come from the library of Herculaneum, which was buried along with Pompeii nearly 2000 years ago. Scholars have been trying to read the carbonised scrolls, which resemble lumps of charcoal, since the library was discovered in 1752. Physically unwrapping them risks their destruction and the ink they are written in is mostly indistinguishable from the charred papyri - at least to human eyes.

Anthropic accuses Alibaba of'illicitly' accessing AI models Alibaba's American depositary receipts sank to a session low on the news, falling more than 3% to $99.10 at 3:38 p.m. in New York on Wednesday. Anthropic accused Chinese technology giant Alibaba Group Holding of waging a large-scale effort to "illicitly" access its Claude artificial intelligence model using thousands of fraudulent accounts that undermine the U.S. AI developer's decision to keep its products out of China. Anthropic claimed that a campaign by operators linked to Alibaba's Qwen AI lab targeted Claude's most prized capabilities, including software engineering and agentic reasoning, according to a letter that the AI startup sent to several U.S. senators and White House officials. The company said it was the biggest attempt so far by a Chinese company to piggyback on the work of top U.S. labs. In its letter, Anthropic claimed that the effort involved 28.8 million exchanges with Claude between April and June through almost 25,000 fraudulent accounts, according to people familiar with the document and a copy seen by Bloomberg News. The company said the Alibaba campaign resembled past efforts by other Chinese developers that Anthropic flagged in a blog post earlier this year.

When two or more parameters or labels produce similar data, they are degenerate, or hard to distinguish. Degeneracies render both label prediction and inverse problems difficult, since both machine learning algorithms and probabilistic samplers rely on the distinguishability of data and its gradients with respect to parameters. However, identifying degeneracies in physical models or real-world datasets can be elucidating about the choice of model or the underlying process that produces the data. We present the degeneracy distillery, a method that (1) detects and (2) resolves degenerate parameter combinations (a) automatically and (b) symbolically, from parameter-data (or parameter-simulation) pairs alone, through estimation and flattening of the Fisher information matrix. By exploring the information geometry of the likelihood, we characterize degeneracies as an intrinsic property of the physical model, requiring no realised data observation. We demonstrate our approach on a range of synthetic and real-world problems, discovering symbolic coordinate transformations that identify the combinations of parameters of a model which yield independent effects on the data. The resulting coordinates flatten the Fisher information in expectation globally, in contrast to posterior-based methods that flatten only at a single point, and substantially reduce the simulation budget required for downstream neural posterior estimation. In test cases we require up to $10\times$ fewer simulations for posterior estimation at matched validation calibration whilst simultaneously gaining physical insight on the system.

We study PAC learning in tabular discounted Markov decision processes with exogenous i.i.d. contexts, with discount factor $γ$, finite state space $\mathcal X$, action space $\mathcal A$, and context space $\mathcal Z$. At each time step, a context is drawn independently from an unknown distribution $μ$ and revealed before the agent acts. This context may affect both rewards and transitions, while remaining uncontrolled by the agent. Depending on the regime, the learner has access either to a sampling oracle for $μ$, to a sampling oracle for the transition kernel conditioned on state-context-action tuples, or to both. Oracles can be accessed before and during policy execution. The sample complexity is measured by a couple $(n,m)$, where $n$ is the number of calls to the sampling oracles before execution and $m$ is the number of calls to the sampling oracles during execution. When rewards and transitions are known and only the context distribution $μ$ is sampled, we give a variance-reduced algorithm that solves policy evaluation (PE), best-value estimation (BVE), and best-policy extraction (BPE) with $\left(\widetilde O\left(1/((1-γ)^3\varepsilon^2)\right), 0 \right) $ sample complexity. The rate is independent of $|\mathcal Z|$ and minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. As a corollary, we also obtain tight rates in the case of one-step perfect look-ahead, improving upon the existing guarantees. In the fully unknown regime, where both $μ$ and P must be learned, we show that PE remains $|\mathcal Z|$-free, with matching upper and lower bounds $\bigl(\widetilde O(|\mathcal X|/((1-γ)^3\varepsilon^2)),\, \widetilde O(1/((1-γ)^2\varepsilon^2))\bigr)$.

Classification and Regression Trees (CART) constitute one of the most influential paradigms in statistical learning. Although a variety of impurity measures have been proposed for different statistical models, these criteria are typically introduced on a case-by-case basis and analyzed separately. In this paper, we study CART through the lens of Bregman divergences. This perspective places the classical least-squares criterion, Poisson deviance, Kullback-Leibler-type losses, and other impurity measures associated with exponential-family models within a common framework. As a result, key ingredients of the CART methodology -- including node representatives, impurity measures, and split selection rules -- can be expressed and analyzed through general properties of convex functions rather than through separate model-specific constructions. Beyond the algorithmic formulation, we investigate theoretical properties of Bregman-based CART procedures. In particular, we analyze how geometric properties of the generating convex function influence impurity reductions and stability of recursive partitions. We also establish consistency results within the proposed framework, providing a unified theoretical treatment for a broad family of CART type procedures. Our results provide a geometric interpretation of impurity-based tree construction and show that many classical CART impurity criteria admit a common interpretation within a Bregman framework.

We study linear TD(0) under Markovian sampling, where data are generated along a single trajectory. We provide high-probability guarantees for a plain unprojected TD(0) algorithm with Polyak-Ruppert (PR) averaging, using a single stepsize schedule $η_t \propto \frac{1}{τ_{\mathrm{mix}}\log(t)\sqrt{t}}$ that depends on the mixing time but requires no prior knowledge of the curvature parameter $ω$. Our first result shows that such a choice of the stepsize guarantees that the TD(0) iterates are automatically and uniformly bounded with high probability, without projections and without any stability argument based on $ω$. Building on this result, we establish a simultaneous high-probability convergence guarantee for the PR average: the same stepsize yields both a robust curvature-free $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\!\left(\frac{τ_{\mathrm{mix}}}{\sqrt{T}}\right)$ rate and a fast curvature-dependent $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}\!\left(\frac{τ_{\mathrm{mix}}^2}{ωT}\right)$rate, with the bound taking the minimum of the two. The core technical ingredient is a Poisson-equation toolkit for geometrically mixing Markov chains, which decomposes Markov noise into a martingale term plus a controlled remainder and enables a new self-bounding inductive argument for pathwise stability.

Textual data are often collected alongside structured response variables, but prediction and interpretation are commonly treated as separate tasks. This paper studies rating prediction as an initial case of interpretable text-response modelling, where the aim is to learn textual representations that are both semantically meaningful and aligned with an external response. We propose a joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression model, in which the document-topic representation is learned from both text reconstruction and rating prediction. Simulation experiments and a real-world review dataset show that the model can recover stable response-relevant textual signals and achieve competitive performance against linear and ridge regression baselines. The framework provides a practical step towards interpretable modelling of text-linked outcomes, with potential extensions to other response types beyond bounded ratings.

Building on the large-sample analysis of infinitesimal gradient boosting (Dombry and Duchamps, 2024b), we study the fluctuations of the process around its deterministic limit and establish a functional central limit theorem: the rescaled deviations converge in distribution to a Gaussian process. The analysis is carried out in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) naturally associated with the softmax gradient tree base learner, in which the boosting process is characterized as the solution of an autonomous ordinary differential equation (ODE). The proof rests on a general stochastic perturbation analysis of ODEs in Banach spaces, which is of independent interest: whenever a sequence of vector fields converges and satisfies a central limit theorem, so does the associated ODE solution. We first illustrate this perturbation approach in the simpler setting of kernel gradient flow, where the Gaussian limit admits an explicit characterization, and then consider the more complicated tree-based gradient boosting setting.

Hyperparameter selection is a critical step in the deployment of modern artificial intelligence systems, given the need to tune degrees of freedom such as inference-time parameters, implementation-level settings, and thresholds driving decision rules. Despite its practical importance, hyperparameter selection is typically performed using best-effort empirical methods such as grid search or Bayesian optimization, which provide no formal statistical guarantees on reliability or safety. This monograph presents a unified statistical framework for reliable hyperparameter selection, centered on the learn-then-test (LTT) paradigm, which formulates the problem as multiple hypothesis testing over a candidate set of hyperparameters. The framework enables the selection of hyperparameters that provably satisfy application-specific reliability requirements -- such as bounds on average risk, quantile risk, or information-theoretic constraints -- with explicit, finite-sample control of error probabilities. The supporting statistical machinery, namely p-values, e-values, and concentration inequalities, is developed from first principles in a dedicated appendix.