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Adjusted Wasserstein distances for bridging empirical and true distributions with applications to MDS

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper examines how metric adjustments to Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) can enhance its effectiveness as a visual tool for pattern recognition. The distance under consideration, referred to as Max-D-SW, is an adjustment of the Max-Sliced Wasserstein distance. In contrast to the original formulation, which optimizes over single unit directions, Max-D-SW aggregates contributions over orthonormal bases. This modification provides a clear numerical advantage in MDS outcomes, particularly when applied to heavy-tailed distributions. We also establish sample-complexity bounds showing that Max-D-SW remains statistically tractable, with rates comparable to those of its max-sliced counterpart. Moreover, we show that a better sample complexity for a metric does not necessarily translate into better performance when the metric is used as an input for MDS.


Doubly Robust Adaptive Conformal Inference for Causal Effects Under Temporal Dependence

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose doubly robust adaptive conformal inference (DR-ACI), which constructs prediction intervals for doubly robust pseudo-outcomes under temporal dependence. Calibration targets the pseudo-outcome ψDRt; under estimator consistency, this yields asymptotically conservative CATE containment (Corollary 6). Temporal block cross-fitting preserves switch-coefficient mixing bounds and the DML product-bias rate up to an explicit coupling remainder.


Notes on generative modeling: flow matching, diffusion, optimal transport and Schr{ö}dinger bridge

arXiv.org Machine Learning

These notes recapitulate the high level mathematical principles behind different techniques for generative modeling. I show the connections between optimal transport and standard techniques such as Schr{ö}dinger bridge and flow matching.


ITSPACE: Monotone Gaussian Optimal Transport Updates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Covariance matrices serve as compact descriptors of feature distributions in many machine-learning pipelines, including domain adaptation and Gaussian embeddings. Under a centered Gaussian approximation, the unregularized Wasserstein-2 optimal-transport (OT) discrepancy admits a closed form on covariances given by the Bures-Wasserstein (BW) objective on the symmetric positive definite (SPD) cone. We propose ITSPACE (Iterative Transport for Stable Proximal Alignment of Covariance Embeddings), a proximal majorization-minimization method that directly optimizes this exact BW objective through closed-form updates in a square-root factorization. In exact arithmetic, each iteration satisfies a sufficient-decrease inequality for the BW objective; under inexact polar computations, we provide an explicit certificate-gap bound controlling deviations from exact descent. The resulting iterations preserve PSD structure by construction and naturally support rank-restricted factors, making ITSPACE well-suited as a lightweight inner-loop primitive in settings where adaptation must be performed from unlabeled target batches under strict step and compute budgets. Across real-world covariance-alignment benchmarks, ITSPACE reaches low-BW-gap solutions substantially faster than BW-gradient descent, methods based on other covariance geometries, and entropically regularized sample-OT baselines.


A Sieve-Accelerated Quadrature Method for Exact Privacy Accounting in the 2020 U.S. Decennial Census

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau adopted differential privacy for the Decennial Census by injecting integer-valued Gaussian noise into published census tabulations. Exactly evaluating the privacy guarantees of these data releases would enable the Bureau to determine the absolute minimum noise required to satisfy a given privacy budget, preventing the injection of unnecessary excess noise and thereby substantially enhancing the statistical utility of the data for downstream applications such as federal funding allocation and political redistricting. In this paper, we introduce a computationally efficient and mathematically rigorous quadrature method to evaluate the exact privacy profile of practical, large-scale census releases under the composition of heterogeneous discrete Gaussian mechanisms. Mathematically, this problem reduces to evaluating the tail probabilities of high-dimensional convolutions of integer-valued random variables sampled from heterogeneous discrete Gaussian distributions under exceptionally stringent numerical error tolerances (e.g., $10^{-35}$). By recasting the exact privacy accounting as a numerical integration problem via the discrete Fourier transform, we explicitly exploit the exponential convergence of the trapezoidal rule for complex analytic, periodic characteristic functions. Furthermore, to overcome the computational bottleneck of evaluating highly oscillatory integrands in high dimensions, we develop a sieve algorithm that identifies and prunes negligible quadrature nodes, accelerating the computation by three orders of magnitude. Taken together, these numerical innovations enable the first exact, assumption-free privacy accounting for the 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File, achieving a 1,824-fold speedup over prior methods while maintaining census-mandated error tolerances.


S-GAI: Spectral Geometry-Aware Initialization for Sigmoidal MLPs -- From Dataset Geometry to Network Weights

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Classical universal approximation theorems establish the expressive power of sigmoidal multilayer perceptrons, but they do not prescribe how initial weights should encode the geometry of a data distribution. We propose S-GAI, a spectral geometry-aware initialization framework for one-hidden-layer sigmoidal MLPs. Starting from the constructive idea that sigmoid units can act as smooth half-space gates, we move from hand-specified planar geometry to class-wise spectral geometry estimated from image data. For each class, SVD provides a mean, principal directions, and spectral scales. An energy threshold selects the retained directions, and each retained direction is represented by two sigmoid gates. These class-specific gates form a shared hidden layer initialized directly from the training set. We also formulate a SVD-based subspace classifier as a non-neural geometric reference, which tests whether the estimated spectral class geometry is already discriminative before being embedded into the MLP. Experiments on MNIST, Fashion-MNIST, and a more challenging CIFAR-10 test show that the S-GAI-initialized MLP starts from a substantially more informative hidden state than Xavier initialization and reaches comparable final accuracy under full training. When the hidden layer is frozen, training only the output layer still gives stronger performance than frozen random gates, providing evidence that S-GAI effectively embeds class-wise spectral geometry into the MLP.


Sample Complexity of Scientific Discovery: PAC Learnability of Compositional Function Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Scientific discovery via symbolic regression is often viewed as statistically and computationally intractable because the hypothesis space of expressions grows combinatorially with depth. This paper revisits the statistical side through the lens of PAC learning, focusing on compositional function trees built from a finite vocabulary of smooth operators (e.g., $\{+,\times,\sin,\exp\}$ and affine maps). We prove that the relevant generalization quantity, Rademacher complexity, hence the excess risk, does not necessarily blow up exponentially with the number of distinct symbolic structures, but is controlled by (i) the depth $d$ and (ii) the Lipschitz constants of the base operators along the composed computation graph. Concretely, under mild Lipschitz conditions on operators and bounded affine leaves, a finite-union bound over a vocabulary of size $K=|\mathcal{H}_{\mathrm{base}}|$ together with Maurer-type vector contraction yields $\mathfrak{R}_n(\mathcal{H}_{\mathrm{comp}}^{d}) \leq (Kb\sqrt{2}L)^{d-1}\mathfrak{R}_n(\mathcal{H}_{\mathrm{comp}}^{1})$ with arity bound $b$; corresponding high-probability risk bounds scale as $\mathcal{O}(L^{d}/\sqrt{n})$ when $K,b=O(1)$ and $\mathfrak{R}_n(\mathcal{H}_{\mathrm{comp}}^{1})=O(n^{-1/2})$. We complement the theory with a modular codebase that trains differentiable operator trees (not MLPs) on synthetic "physics-like" targets of controlled depth and shows that the empirical generalization gap correlates positively with the predicted complexity term $(\widehat{L}^{d})/\sqrt{n}$.


Convergence of Continual Learning in Homogeneous Deep Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We characterize weakly regularized continual classification in homogeneous models as sequential projections onto task margin sets. This result generalizes prior analyses restricted to either stationary (single-task) deep models or continual linear models. We show that global convergence generally fails, even for simple models linear in data but nonlinear in parameters. Nevertheless, by leveraging results from nonconvex projection theory, we identify regularity properties of homogeneous deep networks that guarantee local linear convergence under random and cyclic task sequences. Finally, we extend our analysis to continual regression, unifying the framework for homogeneous models.


The Fundamental Limits of Valid Transport Map Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many modern generative modeling methods, including diffusion models, normalizing flows, and flow matching, estimate transport maps or plans between distributions without explicitly targeting an optimal transport (OT) map. In applications like generative modeling, the transport cost itself is irrelevant, and this makes it natural to target maps which are more tractable from either a statistical or computational standpoint. In this short note, we formalize the task of estimating any valid transport map in a rigorous minimax framework. One consequence of this framing is that it yields sample complexity lower bounds for any method whose learned object is evaluated as a transport map or plan, including flow matching and diffusion-based generative models, in settings where direct analysis would be challenging due to the analytic complexity of the methods and their target maps. We observe that, under standard, though strong, stability assumptions from the OT literature, estimating any valid transport map is statistically as hard as estimating the OT map. We complement these results with some examples showing that when these stability assumptions fail, alternative transport maps can be learned substantially more accurately than the OT map. Our minimax framing provides a rigorous foundation for understanding the statistical limits of modern transport-based generative methods and clarifies when targeting sub-optimal maps can provide real statistical advantages.


We've Been Undercounting the Insects. There May Be Three Times as Many Species as We Knew

TIME - Tech

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