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Resolution of Simpson's paradox via the common cause principle

Neural Information Processing Systems

Simpson's paradox poses a challenge in probabilistic inference and decisionmaking. Our study revisits the paradox by re-estimating its frequency with an unbiased data generation process and reaffirms that it is not an artifact of deficient data collection. Thus, it can lead to incorrect recommendations in fields as diverse as statistics, psychology, and artificial intelligence. We show that the paradox can be resolved by assuming a minimal -- though not necessarily observed -- common cause (or screening) variable for the involved random variables. In our approach, conditioning on this minimal common cause establishes the correct association between events, which coincides with the conditioning (i.e., fine-grained) option of the original Simpson paradox. This resolution applies to both discrete cases of binary variables and continuous settings modeled by Gaussian variables. For a non-minimal common cause, the resolution of the paradox is possible, but detailed knowledge of the common cause is required. Our findings extend traditional understandings of the paradox and offer practical guidance for resolving apparent contradictions in probabilistic inference, ultimately enhancing decision-making processes. This point is illustrated by several examples.



Neural Mutual Information Estimation with Vector Copulas

Neural Information Processing Systems

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental task in data science and machine learning. Existing estimators mainly rely on either highly flexible models (e.g., neural networks), which require large amounts of data, or overly simplified models (e.g., Gaussian copula), which fail to capture complex distributions. Drawing upon recent vector copula theory, we propose a principled interpolation between these two extremes to achieve a better trade-off between complexity and capacity. Experiments on state-of-the-art synthetic benchmarks and real-world data with diverse modalities demonstrate the advantages of the proposed estimator.


Active Test-time Vision-Language Navigation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) policies trained on offline datasets often exhibit degraded task performance when deployed in unfamiliar navigation environments at test time, where agents are typically evaluated without access to external interaction or feedback. Entropy minimization has emerged as a practical solution for reducing prediction uncertainty at test time; however, it can suffer from accumulated errors, as agents may become overconfident in incorrect actions without sufficient contextual grounding. To tackle these challenges, we introduce ATENA (Active TEst-time Navigation Agent), a test-time active learning framework that enables a practical human-robot interaction via episodic feedback on uncertain navigation outcomes. In particular, ATENA learns to increase certainty in successful episodes and decrease it in failed ones, improving uncertainty calibration. Here, we propose mixture entropy optimization, where entropy is obtained from a combination of the action and pseudo-expert distributions--a hypothetical action distribution assuming the agent's selected action to be optimal--controlling both prediction confidence and action preference. In addition, we propose a selfactive learning strategy that enables an agent to evaluate its navigation outcomes based on confident predictions. As a result, the agent stays actively engaged throughout all iterations, leading to well-grounded and adaptive decision-making. Extensive evaluations on challenging VLN benchmarks--REVERIE, R2R, and R2R-CE--demonstrate that ATENA successfully overcomes distributional shifts at test time, outperforming the compared baseline methods across various settings.


SORTeDRashomon Sets of Sparse Decision Trees: Anytime Enumeration

Neural Information Processing Systems

Sparse decision tree learning provides accurate and interpretable predictive models that are ideal for high-stakes applications by finding the single most accurate tree within a (soft) size limit. Rather than relying on a single "best" tree, Rashomon sets--trees with similar performance but varying structures--can be used to enhance variable importance analysis, enrich explanations, and enable users to choose simpler trees or those that satisfy stakeholder preferences (e.g., fairness) without hard-coding such criteria into the objective function. However, because finding the optimal tree is NP-hard, enumerating the Rashomon set is inherently challenging. Therefore, we introduce SORTD, a novel framework that improves scalability and enumerates trees in the Rashomon set in order of the objective value, thus offering anytime behavior. Our experiments show that SORTD reduces runtime by up to two orders of magnitude compared with the state of the art. Moreover, SORTD can compute Rashomon sets for any separable and totally ordered objective and supports post-evaluating the set using other separable (and partially ordered) objectives. Together, these advances make exploring Rashomon sets more practical in real-world applications.


Embodied Cognition Augmented End2End Autonomous Driving

Neural Information Processing Systems

In recent years, vision-based end-to-end autonomous driving has emerged as a new paradigm. However, popular end-to-end approaches typically rely on visual feature extraction networks trained under label supervision. This limited supervision framework restricts the generality and applicability of driving models. In this paper, we propose a novel paradigm termed E3AD, which advocates for comparative learning between visual feature extraction networks and the general EEG large model, in order to learn latent human driving cognition for enhancing end-to-end planning. In this work, we collected a cognitive dataset for the mentioned contrastive learning process. Subsequently, we investigated the methods and potential mechanisms for enhancing end-to-end planning with human driving cognition, using popular driving models as baselines on publicly available autonomous driving datasets. Both open-loop and closed-loop tests are conducted for a comprehensive evaluation of planning performance. Experimental results demonstrate that the E3AD paradigm significantly enhances the end-to-end planning performance of baseline models.


What Matters in Data for DPO?

Neural Information Processing Systems

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) has emerged as a simple and effective approach for aligning large language models (LLMs) with human preferences, bypassing the need for a learned reward model. Despite its growing adoption, a fundamental question remains open: what characteristics of preference data are most critical for DPO performance? In this work, we provide a systematic study of how preference data distribution influences DPO, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. We show that the quality of chosen responses plays a dominant role in optimizing the DPO objective, while the quality of rejected responses may have relatively limited impact. Our theoretical analysis characterizes the optimal response distribution under DPO and reveals how contrastiveness between responses helps primarily by improving the chosen samples. We further study an online DPO setting and show it effectively reduces to supervised fine-tuning on the chosen responses. Extensive experiments across diverse tasks confirm our findings: improving the quality of chosen responses consistently boosts performance regardless of the quality of the rejected responses. We also investigate the benefit of mixing the on-policy data. Our results interpret the mechanism behind some widely adopted strategies and offer practical insights for constructing highimpact preference datasets for LLM alignment.


Pool Me Wisely: On the Effect of Pooling in Transformer-Based Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Transformer models have become the dominant backbone for sequence modeling, leveraging self-attention to produce contextualized token representations. These are typically aggregated into fixed-size vectors via pooling operations for downstream tasks. While much of the literature has focused on attention mechanisms, the role of pooling remains underexplored despite its critical impact on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce a theoretical framework that rigorously characterizes the expressivity of Transformer-based models equipped with widely used pooling methods by deriving closed-form bounds on their representational capacity and the ability to distinguish similar inputs. Our analysis extends to different variations of attention formulations, demonstrating that these bounds hold across diverse architectural variants. We empirically evaluate pooling strategies across tasks requiring both global and local contextual understanding, spanning three major modalities: computer vision, natural language processing, and time-series analysis. Results reveal consistent trends in how pooling choices affect accuracy, sensitivity, and optimization behavior. Our findings unify theoretical and empirical perspectives, providing practical guidance for selecting or designing pooling mechanisms suited to specific tasks. This work positions pooling as a key architectural component in Transformer models and lays the foundation for more principled model design beyond attention alone.


LARGO: Latent Adversarial Reflection through Gradient Optimization for Jailbreaking LLMs

Neural Information Processing Systems

Efficient red-teaming method to uncover vulnerabilities in Large Language Models (LLMs) is crucial. While recent attacks often use LLMs as optimizers, the discrete language space make gradient-based methods struggle. We introduce LARGO (Latent Adversarial Reflection through Gradient Optimization), a novel latent self-reflection attack that reasserts the power of gradient-based optimization for generating fluent jailbreaking prompts. By operating within the LLM's continuous latent space, LARGO first optimizes an adversarial latent vector and then recursively call the same LLM to decode the latent into natural language. This methodology yields a fast, effective, and transferable attack that produces fluent and stealthy prompts.


In Context Compositional Learning via Sparse Coding Transformer

Neural Information Processing Systems

Transformer architectures have achieved remarkable success across language, vision, and multimodal tasks, and there is growing demand for them to address in-context compositional learning tasks. In these tasks, models solve the target problems by inferring compositional rules from context examples, which are composed of basic components structured by underlying rules. However, some of these tasks remain challenging for Transformers, which are not inherently designed to handle compositional tasks and offer limited structural inductive bias. In this work, inspired by the principle of sparse coding, we propose a reformulation of the attention to enhance its capability for compositional tasks. In sparse coding, data are represented as sparse combinations of dictionary atoms with coefficients that capture their compositional rules.