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Deep learning-based method for weather forecasting: A case study in Itoshima

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate weather forecasting is of paramount importance for a wide range of practical applications, drawing substantial scientific and societal interest. However, the intricacies of weather systems pose substantial challenges to accurate predictions. This research introduces a multilayer perceptron model tailored for weather forecasting in Itoshima, Kyushu, Japan. Our meticulously designed architecture demonstrates superior performance compared to existing models, surpassing benchmarks such as Long Short-Term Memory and Recurrent Neural Networks.


Investigating the validity of structure learning algorithms in identifying risk factors for intervention in patients with diabetes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diabetes, a pervasive and enduring health challenge, imposes significant global implications on health, financial healthcare systems, and societal well-being. This study undertakes a comprehensive exploration of various structural learning algorithms to discern causal pathways amongst potential risk factors influencing diabetes progression. The methodology involves the application of these algorithms to relevant diabetes data, followed by the conversion of their output graphs into Causal Bayesian Networks (CBNs), enabling predictive analysis and the evaluation of discrepancies in the effect of hypothetical interventions within our context-specific case study. This study highlights the substantial impact of algorithm selection on intervention outcomes. To consolidate insights from diverse algorithms, we employ a model-averaging technique that helps us obtain a unique causal model for diabetes derived from a varied set of structural learning algorithms. We also investigate how each of those individual graphs, as well as the average graph, compare to the structures elicited by a domain expert who categorised graph edges into high confidence, moderate, and low confidence types, leading into three individual graphs corresponding to the three levels of confidence. The resulting causal model and data are made available online, and serve as a valuable resource and a guide for informed decision-making by healthcare practitioners, offering a comprehensive understanding of the interactions between relevant risk factors and the effect of hypothetical interventions. Therefore, this research not only contributes to the academic discussion on diabetes, but also provides practical guidance for healthcare professionals in developing efficient intervention and risk management strategies.


Deep Learning for Trajectory Data Management and Mining: A Survey and Beyond

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Trajectory computing is a pivotal domain encompassing trajectory data management and mining, garnering widespread attention due to its crucial role in various practical applications such as location services, urban traffic, and public safety. Traditional methods, focusing on simplistic spatio-temporal features, face challenges of complex calculations, limited scalability, and inadequate adaptability to real-world complexities. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the development and recent advances in deep learning for trajectory computing (DL4Traj). We first define trajectory data and provide a brief overview of widely-used deep learning models. Systematically, we explore deep learning applications in trajectory management (pre-processing, storage, analysis, and visualization) and mining (trajectory-related forecasting, trajectory-related recommendation, trajectory classification, travel time estimation, anomaly detection, and mobility generation). Notably, we encapsulate recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) that hold the potential to augment trajectory computing. Additionally, we summarize application scenarios, public datasets, and toolkits. Finally, we outline current challenges in DL4Traj research and propose future directions. Relevant papers and open-source resources have been collated and are continuously updated at: \href{https://github.com/yoshall/Awesome-Trajectory-Computing}{DL4Traj Repo}.


The Elements of Differentiable Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has recently experienced remarkable advances, fueled by large models, vast datasets, accelerated hardware, and, last but not least, the transformative power of differentiable programming. This new programming paradigm enables end-to-end differentiation of complex computer programs (including those with control flows and data structures), making gradient-based optimization of program parameters possible. As an emerging paradigm, differentiable programming builds upon several areas of computer science and applied mathematics, including automatic differentiation, graphical models, optimization and statistics. This book presents a comprehensive review of the fundamental concepts useful for differentiable programming. We adopt two main perspectives, that of optimization and that of probability, with clear analogies between the two. Differentiable programming is not merely the differentiation of programs, but also the thoughtful design of programs intended for differentiation. By making programs differentiable, we inherently introduce probability distributions over their execution, providing a means to quantify the uncertainty associated with program outputs.


From Handcrafted Features to LLMs: A Brief Survey for Machine Translation Quality Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine Translation Quality Estimation (MTQE) is the task of estimating the quality of machine-translated text in real time without the need for reference translations, which is of great importance for the development of MT. After two decades of evolution, QE has yielded a wealth of results. This article provides a comprehensive overview of QE datasets, annotation methods, shared tasks, methodologies, challenges, and future research directions. It begins with an introduction to the background and significance of QE, followed by an explanation of the concepts and evaluation metrics for word-level QE, sentence-level QE, document-level QE, and explainable QE. The paper categorizes the methods developed throughout the history of QE into those based on handcrafted features, deep learning, and Large Language Models (LLMs), with a further division of deep learning-based methods into classic deep learning and those incorporating pre-trained language models (LMs). Additionally, the article details the advantages and limitations of each method and offers a straightforward comparison of different approaches. Finally, the paper discusses the current challenges in QE research and provides an outlook on future research directions.


How Human-Centered Explainable AI Interface Are Designed and Evaluated: A Systematic Survey

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite its technological breakthroughs, eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) research has limited success in producing the {\em effective explanations} needed by users. In order to improve XAI systems' usability, practical interpretability, and efficacy for real users, the emerging area of {\em Explainable Interfaces} (EIs) focuses on the user interface and user experience design aspects of XAI. This paper presents a systematic survey of 53 publications to identify current trends in human-XAI interaction and promising directions for EI design and development. This is among the first systematic survey of EI research.


Scene-Graph ViT: End-to-End Open-Vocabulary Visual Relationship Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Visual relationship detection aims to identify objects and their relationships in images. Prior methods approach this task by adding separate relationship modules or decoders to existing object detection architectures. This separation increases complexity and hinders end-to-end training, which limits performance. We propose a simple and highly efficient decoder-free architecture for open-vocabulary visual relationship detection. Our model consists of a Transformer-based image encoder that represents objects as tokens and models their relationships implicitly. To extract relationship information, we introduce an attention mechanism that selects object pairs likely to form a relationship. We provide a single-stage recipe to train this model on a mixture of object and relationship detection data. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art relationship detection performance on Visual Genome and on the large-vocabulary GQA benchmark at real-time inference speeds. We provide analyses of zero-shot performance, ablations, and real-world qualitative examples.


From Perils to Possibilities: Understanding how Human (and AI) Biases affect Online Fora

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Social media platforms are online fora where users engage in discussions, share content, and build connections. This review explores the dynamics of social interactions, user-generated contents, and biases within the context of social media analysis (analyzing works that use the tools offered by complex network analysis and natural language processing) through the lens of three key points of view: online debates, online support, and human-AI interactions. On the one hand, we delineate the phenomenon of online debates, where polarization, misinformation, and echo chamber formation often proliferate, driven by algorithmic biases and extreme mechanisms of homophily. On the other hand, we explore the emergence of online support groups through users' self-disclosure and social support mechanisms. Online debates and support mechanisms present a duality of both perils and possibilities within social media; perils of segregated communities and polarized debates, and possibilities of empathy narratives and self-help groups. This dichotomy also extends to a third perspective: users' reliance on AI-generated content, such as the ones produced by Large Language Models, which can manifest both human biases hidden in training sets and non-human biases that emerge from their artificial neural architectures. Analyzing interdisciplinary approaches, we aim to deepen the understanding of the complex interplay between social interactions, user-generated content, and biases within the realm of social media ecosystems.


Curvature Augmented Manifold Embedding and Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dimension reduction (DR) is a long-lasting and focused area in engineering, science, and machine learning communities. It may have different names and preferences depending on the individual field. For example, in engineering, it can referred to as reduced-order modeling, and it is closely related to data visualization in machine learning. The core concept is to solve the curse of dimensionality by projecting the data features to a low dimensional space (2D or 3D for data visualization problems, but not necessary for general DR problems). Once the low-dimensional data structure is obtained, many analyses, such as classification and regression, can be done conveniently compared to their counterparts in the high-dimensional spaces. The DR method can be traced back to the most widely used principal component analysis (PCA) [1], a linear DR method based on the eigenvalue problems of all data points. PCA has alternative names in engineering and science, such as proper orthogonal decomposition [2] in structural dynamics and Kahunen-Leove expansion in engineering statistics[3]. The nonlinear DR method has been proposed to improve the apparent limitation of the linear DR method, such as locally linear embedding (LLE)[4], ISOMAP[5], and Laplacian Eignemap[6], among many others. A detailed review of these earlier developments can be found in [7].


Estimating Causal Effects with Double Machine Learning -- A Method Evaluation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the estimation of causal effects. In this paper, we review one of the most prominent methods - "double/debiased machine learning" (DML) - and empirically evaluate it by comparing its performance on simulated data relative to more traditional statistical methods, before applying it to real-world data. Our findings indicate that the application of a suitably flexible machine learning algorithm within DML improves the adjustment for various nonlinear confounding relationships. This advantage enables a departure from traditional functional form assumptions typically necessary in causal effect estimation. However, we demonstrate that the method continues to critically depend on standard assumptions about causal structure and identification. When estimating the effects of air pollution on housing prices in our application, we find that DML estimates are consistently larger than estimates of less flexible methods. From our overall results, we provide actionable recommendations for specific choices researchers must make when applying DML in practice.