This paper tackles the modelling of large, complex and multivariate time series panels in a probabilistic setting. To this extent, we present a novel approach reconciling classical state space models with deep learning methods.

This paper tackles the modelling of large, complex and multivariate time series panels in a probabilistic setting. To this extent, we present a novel approach reconciling classical state space models with deep learning methods.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

President Donald Trump holds charts as he speaks about the economy in the Oval Office, August 2025. President Donald Trump holds charts as he speaks about the economy in the Oval Office, August 2025. If the first term of Donald Trump provoked anxiety over the fate of objective knowledge, the second has led to claims we live in a world-historical age of stupid, accelerated by big tech. But might there be a way out? T he first and second Trump administrations have provoked markedly different critical reactions. The shock of 2016 and its aftermath saw a wave of liberal anxiety about the fate of objective knowledge, not only in the US but also in Britain, where the Brexit referendum that year had been won by a campaign that misrepresented key facts and figures.

We present a method for learning Bayesian networks from data sets containing thousands of variables without the need for structure constraints. Our approach is made of two parts. The first is a novel algorithm that effectively explores the space of possible parent sets of a node. It guides the exploration towards the most promising parent sets on the basis of an approximated score function that is computed in constant time. The second part is an improvement of an existing ordering-based algorithm for structure optimization. The new algorithm provably achieves a higher score compared to its original formulation. Our novel approach consistently outperforms the state of the art on very large data sets.

Finally, we prove that the algorithm's

Many Bayesian network modelling applications suffer from the issue of data scarcity. Hence the use of expert judgement often becomes necessary to determine the parameters of the conditional probability tables (CPTs) throughout the network. There are usually a prohibitively large number of these parameters to determine, even when complementing any available data with expert judgements. To address this challenge, a number of CPT approximation methods have been developed that reduce the quantity and complexity of parameters needing to be determined to fully parameterise a Bayesian network. This paper provides a review of a variety of structural refinement methods that can be used in practice to efficiently approximate a CPT within a Bayesian network. We not only introduce and discuss the intrinsic properties and requirements of each method, but we evaluate each method through a worked example on a Bayesian network model of cardiovascular risk assessment. We conclude with practical guidance to help Bayesian network practitioners choose an alternative approach when direct parameterisation of a CPT is infeasible.

The proliferation of transformer-based language models has revolutionized NLP domain while simultaneously introduced significant challenges regarding model transparency and trustworthiness. The complexity of achieving explainable systems in this domain is evidenced by the extensive array of explanation methods and evaluation metrics developed by researchers. To address the challenge of selecting optimal explainability approaches, we present \textbf{\texttt{o-mega}}, a hyperparameter optimization tool designed to automatically identify the most effective explainable AI methods and their configurations within the semantic matching domain. We evaluate o-mega on a post-claim matching pipeline using a curated dataset of social media posts paired with refuting claims. Our tool systematically explores different explainable methods and their hyperparameters, demonstrating improved transparency in automated fact-checking systems. As a result, such automated optimization of explanation methods can significantly enhance the interpretability of claim-matching models in critical applications such as misinformation detection, contributing to more trustworthy and transparent AI systems.