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A unified survey on treatment effect heterogeneity modeling and uplift modeling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A central question in many fields of scientific research is to determine how an outcome would be affected by an action, or to measure the effect of an action (a.k.a treatment effect). In recent years, a need for estimating the heterogeneous treatment effects conditioning on the different characteristics of individuals has emerged from research fields such as personalized healthcare, social science, and online marketing. To meet the need, researchers and practitioners from different communities have developed algorithms by taking the treatment effect heterogeneity modeling approach and the uplift modeling approach, respectively. In this paper, we provide a unified survey of these two seemingly disconnected yet closely related approaches under the potential outcome framework. We then provide a structured survey of existing methods by emphasizing on their inherent connections with a set of unified notations to make comparisons of the different methods easy. We then review the main applications of the surveyed methods in personalized marketing, personalized medicine, and social studies. Finally, we summarize the existing software packages and present discussions based on the use of methods on synthetic, semi-synthetic and real world data sets and provide some general guidelines for choosing methods.


Recommender Systems for the Internet of Things: A Survey

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recommendation represents a vital stage in developing and promoting the benefits of the Internet of Things (IoT). Traditional recommender systems fail to exploit ever-growing, dynamic, and heterogeneous IoT data. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the state-of-the-art recommender systems, as well as related techniques and application in the vibrant field of IoT. We discuss several limitations of applying recommendation systems to IoT and propose a reference framework for comparing existing studies to guide future research and practices.


The impact of machine learning and AI on the UK economy

#artificialintelligence

A recent virtual event addressed another such issue: the potential impact machines, imbued with artificial intelligence, may have on the economy and the financial system. The event was organised by the Bank of England, in collaboration with CEPR and the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis at Imperial College. What follows is a summary of some of the recorded presentations. The full catalogue of videos are available on the Bank of England's website. In his presentation, Stuart Russell (University of California, Berkeley), author of the leading textbook on artificial intelligence (AI), gives a broad historical overview of the field since its emergence in the 1950s, followed by insight into more recent developments.


A Survey of Algorithms for Black-Box Safety Validation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous and semi-autonomous systems for safety-critical applications require rigorous testing before deployment. Due to the complexity of these systems, formal verification may be impossible and real-world testing may be dangerous during development. Therefore, simulation-based techniques have been developed that treat the system under test as a black box during testing. Safety validation tasks include finding disturbances to the system that cause it to fail (falsification), finding the most-likely failure, and estimating the probability that the system fails. Motivated by the prevalence of safety-critical artificial intelligence, this work provides a survey of state-of-the-art safety validation techniques with a focus on applied algorithms and their modifications for the safety validation problem. We present and discuss algorithms in the domains of optimization, path planning, reinforcement learning, and importance sampling. Problem decomposition techniques are presented to help scale algorithms to large state spaces, and a brief overview of safety-critical applications is given, including autonomous vehicles and aircraft collision avoidance systems. Finally, we present a survey of existing academic and commercially available safety validation tools.


A Beginner's Guide to Graph Analytics and Deep Learning

#artificialintelligence

Graphs are networks of dots and lines. Graphs are data structures that can be ingested by various algorithms, notably neural nets, learning to perform tasks such as classification, clustering and regression. TL;DR: here's one way to make graph data ingestable for the algorithms: The result will be vector representation of each node in the graph with some information preserved. Once you have the real number vector, you can feed it to the neural network. The simplest definition of a graph is "a collection of items connected by edges."


A Survey on Autonomous Vehicle Control in the Era of Mixed-Autonomy: From Physics-Based to AI-Guided Driving Policy Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper serves as an introduction and overview of the potentially useful models and methodologies from artificial intelligence (AI) into the field of transportation engineering for autonomous vehicle (AV) control in the era of mixed autonomy. We will discuss state-of-the-art applications of AI-guided methods, identify opportunities and obstacles, raise open questions, and help suggest the building blocks and areas where AI could play a role in mixed autonomy. We divide the stage of autonomous vehicle (AV) deployment into four phases: the pure HVs, the HV-dominated, the AVdominated, and the pure AVs. This paper is primarily focused on the latter three phases. It is the first-of-its-kind survey paper to comprehensively review literature in both transportation engineering and AI for mixed traffic modeling. Models used for each phase are summarized, encompassing game theory, deep (reinforcement) learning, and imitation learning. While reviewing the methodologies, we primarily focus on the following research questions: (1) What scalable driving policies are to control a large number of AVs in mixed traffic comprised of human drivers and uncontrollable AVs? (2) How do we estimate human driver behaviors? (3) How should the driving behavior of uncontrollable AVs be modeled in the environment? (4) How are the interactions between human drivers and autonomous vehicles characterized? Hopefully this paper will not only inspire our transportation community to rethink the conventional models that are developed in the data-shortage era, but also reach out to other disciplines, in particular robotics and machine learning, to join forces towards creating a safe and efficient mixed traffic ecosystem.


Machine learning for electronically excited states of molecules

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Electronically excited states of molecules are at the heart of photochemistry, photophysics, as well as photobiology and also play a role in material science. Their theoretical description requires highly accurate quantum chemical calculations, which are computationally expensive. In this review, we focus on how machine learning is employed not only to speed up such excited-state simulations but also how this branch of artificial intelligence can be used to advance this exciting research field in all its aspects. Discussed applications of machine learning for excited states include excited-state dynamics simulations, static calculations of absorption spectra, as well as many others. In order to put these studies into context, we discuss the promises and pitfalls of the involved machine learning techniques. Since the latter are mostly based on quantum chemistry calculations, we also provide a short introduction into excited-state electronic structure methods, approaches for nonadiabatic dynamics simulations and describe tricks and problems when using them in machine learning for excited states of molecules.


AGI Agent Safety by Iteratively Improving the Utility Function

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

While it is still unclear if agents with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could ever be built, we can already use mathematical models to investigate potential safety systems for these agents. We present an AGI safety layer that creates a special dedicated input terminal to support the iterative improvement of an AGI agent's utility function. The humans who switched on the agent can use this terminal to close any loopholes that are discovered in the utility function's encoding of agent goals and constraints, to direct the agent towards new goals, or to force the agent to switch itself off. An AGI agent may develop the emergent incentive to manipulate the above utility function improvement process, for example by deceiving, restraining, or even attacking the humans involved. The safety layer will partially, and sometimes fully, suppress this dangerous incentive. The first part of this paper generalizes earlier work on AGI emergency stop buttons. We aim to make the mathematical methods used to construct the layer more accessible, by applying them to an MDP model. We discuss two provable properties of the safety layer, and show ongoing work in mapping it to a Causal Influence Diagram (CID). In the second part, we develop full mathematical proofs, and show that the safety layer creates a type of bureaucratic blindness. We then present the design of a learning agent, a design that wraps the safety layer around either a known machine learning system, or a potential future AGI-level learning system. The resulting agent will satisfy the provable safety properties from the moment it is first switched on. Finally, we show how this agent can be mapped from its model to a real-life implementation. We review the methodological issues involved in this step, and discuss how these are typically resolved.


Guru, Partner, or Pencil Sharpener? Understanding Designers' Attitudes Towards Intelligent Creativity Support Tools

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Creativity Support Tools (CST) aim to enhance human creativity, but the deeply personal and subjective nature of creativity makes the design of universal support tools challenging. Individuals develop personal approaches to creativity, particularly in the context of commercial design where signature styles and techniques are valuable commodities. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques could provide a means of creating 'intelligent' CST which learn and adapt to personal styles of creativity. Identifying what kind of role such tools could play in the design process requires a better understanding of designers' attitudes towards working with AI, and their willingness to include it in their personal creative process. This paper details the results of a survey of professional designers which indicates a positive and pragmatic attitude towards collaborating with AI tools, and a particular opportunity for incorporating them in the research stages of a design project.


AI in FinTech: A Research Agenda

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Smart FinTech has emerged as a new area that synthesizes and transforms AI and finance, and broadly data science, machine learning, economics, etc. Smart FinTech also transforms and drives new economic and financial businesses, services and systems, and plays an increasingly important role in economy, technology and society transformation. This article presents a highly summarized research overview of smart FinTech, including FinTech businesses and challenges, various FinTech-associated data and repositories, FinTech-driven business decision and optimization, areas in smart FinTech, and research methods and techniques for smart FinTech.