We introduce DeCaFlow, a deconfounding causal generative model. Training once per dataset using just observational data and the underlying causal graph, DeCaFlow enables accurate causal inference on continuous variables under the presence of hidden confounders. Specifically, we extend previous results on causal estimation under hidden confounding to show that a single instance of DeCaFlow provides correct estimates for all causal queries identifiable with do-calculus, leveraging proxy variables to adjust for the causal effects when do-calculus alone is insufficient. Moreover, we show that counterfactual queries are identifiable as long as their interventional counterparts are identifiable, and thus are also correctly estimated by DeCaFlow. Our empirical results on diverse settings--including the Ecoli70 dataset, with 3 independent hidden confounders, tens of observed variables and hundreds of causal queries--show that DeCaFlow outperforms existing approaches, while demonstrating its out-of-the-box applicability to any given causal graph.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs), with their strong reasoning and planning capabilities, are widely used in embodied decision-making (EDM) tasks in embodied agents, such as autonomous driving and robotic manipulation. Recent research has increasingly explored adversarial attacks on VLMs to reveal their vulnerabilities. However, these attacks either rely on overly strong assumptions, requiring full knowledge of the victim VLM, which is impractical for attacking VLM-based agents, or exhibit limited effectiveness. The latter stems from disrupting most semantic information in the image, which leads to a misalignment between the perception and the task context defined by system prompts. This inconsistency interrupts the VLM's reasoning process, resulting in invalid outputs that fail to affect interactions in the physical world. To this end, we propose a fine-grained adversarial attack framework, ADVEDM, which modifies the VLM's perception of only a few key objects while preserving the semantics of the remaining regions. This attack effectively reduces conflicts with the task context, making VLMs output valid but incorrect decisions and affecting the actions of agents, thus posing a more substantial safety threat in the physical world. We design two variants of based on this framework, ADVEDM-R and ADVEDM-A, which respectively remove the semantics of a specific object from the image and add the semantics of a new object into the image. The experimental results in both general scenarios and EDM tasks demonstrate fine-grained control and excellent attack performance.

Modeling human decision-making is central to applications such as recommendation, preference learning, and human-AI alignment. While many classic models assume context-independent choice behavior, a large body of behavioral research shows that preferences are often influenced by the composition of the choice set itself--a phenomenon known as the context effect or Halo effect.

Large language models have been widely integrated into information retrieval to advance traditional techniques. However, effectively enabling LLMs to seek accurate knowledge in complex tasks remains a challenge due to the complexity of multi-hop queries as well as the irrelevant retrieved content. To address these limitations, we propose EXSEARCH, an agentic search framework, where the LLM learns to retrieve useful information as the reasoning unfolds through a selfincentivized process. At each step, the LLM decides what to retrieve (thinking), triggers an external retriever (search), and extracts fine-grained evidence (recording) to support next-step reasoning. To enable LLM with this capability, EXSEARCH adopts a generalized expectation-maximization algorithm.

Tabular datasets are inherently heterogeneous, presenting significant challenges for developing pre-trained foundation models. The recently introduced transformerbased Tabular Prior-data Fitted Network v2 (TabPFN v2) achieves unprecedented in-context learning performance across diverse downstream datasets, marking a pivotal advancement in tabular foundation models. In this paper, we take a closer look at TabPFN v2 to examine how it effectively handles heterogeneity and achieves high predictive accuracy, and to explore how its limitations in high-dimensional, many-category, and large-scale tasks can be mitigated. We find that TabPFN v2 can infer attribute relationships even when provided with randomized attribute token inputs, eliminating the need to explicitly learn dataset-specific attribute embeddings to address heterogeneity. We further show that TabPFN v2 can be transformed into a feature extractor, revealing its ability to construct a highly separable feature space for accurate predictions. Lastly, we demonstrate that TabPFN v2's limitations can be addressed through a test-time divide-and-conquer strategy, enabling scalable inference without requiring re-training. By uncovering the mechanisms behind TabPFN v2's success and introducing strategies to extend its applicability, this study offers key insights into the design of future tabular foundation models.

Time series analysis provides essential insights for real-world system dynamics and informs downstream decision-making, yet most existing methods often overlook the rich contextual signals present in auxiliary modalities. To bridge this gap, we introduce TimeXL, a multi-modal prediction framework that integrates a prototypebased time series encoder with three collaborating Large Language Models (LLMs) to deliver more accurate predictions and interpretable explanations. First, a multimodal prototype-based encoder processes both time series and textual inputs to generate preliminary forecasts alongside case-based rationales. These outputs then feed into a prediction LLM, which refines the forecasts by reasoning over the encoder's predictions and explanations. Next, a reflection LLM compares the predicted values against the ground truth, identifying textual inconsistencies or noise. Guided by this feedback, a refinement LLM iteratively enhances text quality and triggers encoder retraining. This closed-loop workflow--prediction, critique (reflect), and refinement--continuously boosts the framework's performance and interpretability. Empirical evaluations on four real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeXL achieves up to 8.9% improvement in AUC and produces human-centric, multi-modal explanations, highlighting the power of LLM-driven reasoning for time series prediction.

QuestBench: acquire inf Can ormation LLMs ask in reasoning the right tasks? question to Lar ingly ge being language applied models to reasoning (LLMs) tasks are increassuch as math ning/coding tions typically [15, 34 [ , 18 46 assume , ], 59 logic , 63 all , 6 [ necessary 70 , 10 , 12 ]. Users orld scenarios may omit often crucial violate details this in in such en math cas vironme es, problems, LLMs nts with need and partial the robots ability observ might to proacti ability operate v .

We introduce CameraBench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark designed to assess and improve camera motion understanding. CameraBench consists of 3,000 diverse internet videos, annotated by experts through a rigorous multi-stage quality control process. One of our core contributions is a taxonomy or "language" of camera motion primitives, designed in collaboration with cinematographers. We find, for example, that some primitives like "follow" (or tracking) require understanding scene content like moving subjects. We conduct a large-scale human study to quantify human annotation performance, revealing that domain expertise and tutorial-based training can significantly enhance accuracy. For example, a novice may confuse zoom-in(a change of intrinsics) with translating forward (a change of extrinsics), but can be trained to differentiate the two. Using CameraBench, we evaluate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Video-Language Models (VLMs), finding that SfM models struggle to capture semantic primitives that depend on scene content, while VLMs struggle to capture geometric primitives that require precise estimation of trajectories. We then fine-tune a generative VLM on CameraBench to achieve the best of both worlds and showcase its applications, including motion-augmented captioning, video question answering, and video-text retrieval. We hope our taxonomy, benchmark, and tutorials will drive future efforts towards the ultimate goal of understanding camera motions in any video.

We introduce CameraBench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark designed to assess and improve camera motion understanding. CameraBench consists of 3,000 diverse internet videos, annotated by experts through a rigorous multi-stage quality control process. One of our core contributions is a taxonomy or "language" of camera motion primitives, designed in collaboration with cinematographers. We find, for example, that some primitives like "follow" (or tracking) require understanding scene content like moving subjects. We conduct a large-scale human study to quantify human annotation performance, revealing that domain expertise and tutorial-based training can significantly enhance accuracy. For example, a novice may confuse zoom-in(a change of intrinsics) with translating forward (a change of extrinsics), but can be trained to differentiate the two. Using CameraBench, we evaluate Structure-from-Motion (SfM) and Video-Language Models (VLMs), finding that SfM models struggle to capture semantic primitives that depend on scene content, while VLMs struggle to capture geometric primitives that require precise estimation of trajectories. We then fine-tune a generative VLM on CameraBench to achieve the best of both worlds and showcase its applications, including motion-augmented captioning, video question answering, and video-text retrieval. We hope our taxonomy, benchmark, and tutorials will drive future efforts towards the ultimate goal of understanding camera motions in any video.

Recent deep learning approaches for river discharge forecasting have improved the accuracy and efficiency in flood forecasting, enabling more reliable early warning systems for risk management. Nevertheless, existing deep learning approaches in hydrology remain largely confined to local-scale applications and do not leverage the inherent spatial connections of bodies of water. Thus, there is a strong need for new deep learning methodologies that are capable of modeling spatio-temporal relations to improve river discharge and flood forecasting for scientific and operational applications. To address this, we present RiverMamba, a novel deep learning model that is pretrained with long-term reanalysis data and that can forecast global river discharge and floods on a 0.05 grid up to 7 days lead time, which is of high relevance in early warning. To achieve this, RiverMamba leverages efficient Mamba blocks that enable the model to capture spatio-temporal relations in very large river networks and enhance its forecast capability for longer lead times. The forecast blocks integrate ECMWFHRES meteorological forecasts, while accounting for their inaccuracies through spatio-temporal modeling. Our analysis demonstrates that RiverMamba provides reliable predictions of river discharge across various flood return periods, including extreme floods, and lead times, surpassing both AIand physics-based models. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/RiverMamba.