Overview
A Markov Framework for Learning and Reasoning About Strategies in Professional Soccer
Van Roy, Maaike (a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:9:"KU Leuven";}) | Robberechts, Pieter | Yang, Wen-Chi | De Raedt, Luc | Davis, Jesse
Strategy-optimization is a fundamental element of dynamic and complex team sports such as soccer, American football, and basketball. As the amount of data that is collected from matches in these sports has increased, so has the demand for data-driven decisionmaking support. If alternative strategies need to be balanced, a data-driven approach can uncover insights that are not available from qualitative analysis. This could tremendously aid teams in their match preparations. In this work, we propose a novel Markov modelbased framework for soccer that allows reasoning about the specific strategies teams use in order to gain insights into the efficiency of each strategy. The framework consists of two components: (1) a learning component, which entails modeling a team’s offensive behavior by learning a Markov decision process (MDP) from event data that is collected from the team’s matches, and (2) a reasoning component, which involves a novel application of probabilistic model checking to reason about the efficacy of the learned strategies of each team. In this paper, we provide an overview of this framework and illustrate it on several use cases using real-world event data from three leagues. Our results show that the framework can be used to reason about the shot decision-making of teams and to optimise the defensive strategies used when playing against a particular team. The general ideas presented in this framework can easily be extended to other sports.
Cases of EFL Secondary Students' Prompt Engineering Pathways to Complete a Writing Task with ChatGPT
Woo, David James, Guo, Kai, Susanto, Hengky
Although it has potential to support English as a foreign language (EFL) students' writing, to effectively collaborate with it, a student must learn to engineer prompts, that is, the skill of crafting appropriate instructions so that ChatGPT produces desired outputs. However, writing an appropriate prompt for ChatGPT is not straightforward for non-technical users who suffer a trial-and-error process. This paper examines the content of EFL students' ChatGPT prompts when completing a writing task and explores patterns in the quality and quantity of the prompts. The data come from iPad screen recordings of secondary school EFL students who used ChatGPT and other SOTA chatbots for the first time to complete the same writing task. The paper presents a case study of four distinct pathways that illustrate the trial-and-error process and show different combinations of prompt content and quantity. The cases contribute evidence for the need to provide prompt engineering education in the context of the EFL writing classroom, if students are to move beyond an individual trial-anderror process, learning a greater variety of prompt content and more sophisticated prompts to support their writing. Keywords: artificial intelligence; chatbots; prompt engineering; writing; case study; ChatGPT 1. Introduction ChatGPT's incredible popularity indicates many people's desire to transform their world of education, work and leisure through chatbots. Previously, chatbots followed a rule-based design with limited capabilities to respond accurately to user queries, especially with unfamiliar inputs.
Nonlinear Feature Aggregation: Two Algorithms driven by Theory
Bonetti, Paolo, Metelli, Alberto Maria, Restelli, Marcello
Many real-world machine learning applications are characterized by a huge number of features, leading to computational and memory issues, as well as the risk of overfitting. Ideally, only relevant and non-redundant features should be considered to preserve the complete information of the original data and limit the dimensionality. Dimensionality reduction and feature selection are common preprocessing techniques addressing the challenge of efficiently dealing with high-dimensional data. Dimensionality reduction methods control the number of features in the dataset while preserving its structure and minimizing information loss. Feature selection aims to identify the most relevant features for a task, discarding the less informative ones. Previous works have proposed approaches that aggregate features depending on their correlation without discarding any of them and preserving their interpretability through aggregation with the mean. A limitation of methods based on correlation is the assumption of linearity in the relationship between features and target. In this paper, we relax such an assumption in two ways. First, we propose a bias-variance analysis for general models with additive Gaussian noise, leading to a dimensionality reduction algorithm (NonLinCFA) which aggregates non-linear transformations of features with a generic aggregation function. Then, we extend the approach assuming that a generalized linear model regulates the relationship between features and target. A deviance analysis leads to a second dimensionality reduction algorithm (GenLinCFA), applicable to a larger class of regression problems and classification settings. Finally, we test the algorithms on synthetic and real-world datasets, performing regression and classification tasks, showing competitive performances.
Detection of Sensor-To-Sensor Variations using Explainable AI
Seifi, Sarah, Schober, Sebastian A., Carbonelli, Cecilia, Servadei, Lorenzo, Wille, Robert
With the growing concern for air quality and its impact on human health, interest in environmental gas monitoring has increased. However, chemi-resistive gas sensing devices are plagued by issues of sensor reproducibility during manufacturing. This study proposes a novel approach for detecting sensor-to-sensor variations in sensing devices using the explainable AI (XAI) method of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). This is achieved by identifying sensors that contribute the most to environmental gas concentration estimation via machine learning, and measuring the similarity of feature rankings between sensors to flag deviations or outliers. The methodology is tested using artificial and realistic Ozone concentration profiles to train a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model. Two applications were explored in the study: the detection of wrong behaviors of sensors in the train dataset, and the detection of deviations in the test dataset. By training the GRU with the pruned train dataset, we could reduce computational costs while improving the model performance. Overall, the results show that our approach improves the understanding of sensor behavior, successfully detects sensor deviations down to 5-10% from the normal behavior, and leads to more efficient model preparation and calibration. Our method provides a novel solution for identifying deviating sensors, linking inconsistencies in hardware to sensor-to-sensor variations in the manufacturing process on an AI model-level.
$\texttt{causalAssembly}$: Generating Realistic Production Data for Benchmarking Causal Discovery
Göbler, Konstantin, Windisch, Tobias, Pychynski, Tim, Sonntag, Steffen, Roth, Martin, Drton, Mathias
Algorithms for causal discovery have recently undergone rapid advances and increasingly draw on flexible nonparametric methods to process complex data. With these advances comes a need for adequate empirical validation of the causal relationships learned by different algorithms. However, for most real data sources true causal relations remain unknown. This issue is further compounded by privacy concerns surrounding the release of suitable high-quality data. To help address these challenges, we gather a complex dataset comprising measurements from an assembly line in a manufacturing context. This line consists of numerous physical processes for which we are able to provide ground truth causal relationships on the basis of a detailed study of the underlying physics. We use the assembly line data and associated ground truth information to build a system for generation of semisynthetic manufacturing data that supports benchmarking of causal discovery methods. To accomplish this, we employ distributional random forests in order to flexibly estimate and represent conditional distributions that may be combined into joint distributions that strictly adhere to a causal model over the observed variables. The estimated conditionals and tools for data generation are made available in our Python library $\texttt{causalAssembly}$. Using the library, we showcase how to benchmark several well-known causal discovery algorithms.
Deep learning based black spot identification on Greek road networks
Karamanlis, Ioannis, Kokkalis, Alexandros, Profillidis, Vassilios, Botzoris, George, Kiourt, Chairi, Sevetlidis, Vasileios, Pavlidis, George
Road safety is a crucial issue that affects not only the individuals involved in road accidents, but also society as a whole. The cost of road accidents in terms of human lives lost, physical and emotional suffering, and financial losses is enormous. Thus, it is important to understand the factors that contribute to road accidents and to develop strategies to reduce the number and severity of these incidents. One of the most important steps in this process is the identification of "black spots," areas where the number of accidents is significantly higher compared to other parts of the road network. The identification of black spots is crucial for prioritizing road safety interventions and evaluating their effectiveness in reducing the number of accidents. These events can range from minor incidents, such as fender benders, to serious crashes, resulting in fatalities or severe injuries. Thus, identifying these areas provides insights into the underlying causes of these accidents. For example, black spot analysis can reveal the presence of road design or infrastructure issues that may contribute to accidents, such as poor lighting, confusing road signs, and a lack of pedestrian crossings.
Graph Meets LLM: A Novel Approach to Collaborative Filtering for Robust Conversational Understanding
Chen, Zheng, Jiang, Ziyan, Yang, Fan, Cho, Eunah, Fan, Xing, Huang, Xiaojiang, Lu, Yanbin, Galstyan, Aram
Conversational AI systems such as Alexa need to understand defective queries to ensure robust conversational understanding and reduce user friction. These defective queries often arise from user ambiguities, mistakes, or errors in automatic speech recognition (ASR) and natural language understanding (NLU). Personalized query rewriting is an approach that focuses on reducing defects in queries by taking into account the user's individual behavior and preferences. It typically relies on an index of past successful user interactions with the conversational AI. However, unseen interactions within the user's history present additional challenges for personalized query rewriting. This paper presents our "Collaborative Query Rewriting" approach, which specifically addresses the task of rewriting new user interactions that have not been previously observed in the user's history. This approach builds a "User Feedback Interaction Graph" (FIG) of historical user-entity interactions and leverages multi-hop graph traversal to enrich each user's index to cover future unseen defective queries. The enriched user index is called a Collaborative User Index and contains hundreds of additional entries. To counteract precision degradation from the enlarged index, we add additional transformer layers to the L1 retrieval model and incorporate graph-based and guardrail features into the L2 ranking model. Since the user index can be pre-computed, we further investigate the utilization of a Large Language Model (LLM) to enhance the FIG for user-entity link prediction in the Video/Music domains. Specifically, this paper investigates the Dolly-V2 7B model. We found that the user index augmented by the fine-tuned Dolly-V2 generation significantly enhanced the coverage of future unseen user interactions, thereby boosting QR performance on unseen queries compared with the graph traversal only approach.
Real-time Safety Assessment of Dynamic Systems in Non-stationary Environments: A Review of Methods and Techniques
Liu, Zeyi, Hu, Songqiao, He, Xiao
Real-time safety assessment (RTSA) of dynamic systems is a critical task that has significant implications for various fields such as industrial and transportation applications, especially in non-stationary environments. However, the absence of a comprehensive review of real-time safety assessment methods in non-stationary environments impedes the progress and refinement of related methods. In this paper, a review of methods and techniques for RTSA tasks in non-stationary environments is provided. Specifically, the background and significance of RTSA approaches in non-stationary environments are firstly highlighted. We then present a problem description that covers the definition, classification, and main challenges. We review recent developments in related technologies such as online active learning, online semi-supervised learning, online transfer learning, and online anomaly detection. Finally, we discuss future outlooks and potential directions for further research. Our review aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of real-time safety assessment methods in non-stationary environments, which can serve as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners in this field.
Forward LTLf Synthesis: DPLL At Work
This paper proposes a new AND-OR graph search framework for synthesis of Linear Temporal Logic on finite traces (\LTLf), that overcomes some limitations of previous approaches. Within such framework, we devise a procedure inspired by the Davis-Putnam-Logemann-Loveland (DPLL) algorithm to generate the next available agent-environment moves in a truly depth-first fashion, possibly avoiding exhaustive enumeration or costly compilations. We also propose a novel equivalence check for search nodes based on syntactic equivalence of state formulas. Since the resulting procedure is not guaranteed to terminate, we identify a stopping condition to abort execution and restart the search with state-equivalence checking based on Binary Decision Diagrams (BDD), which we show to be correct. The experimental results show that in many cases the proposed techniques outperform other state-of-the-art approaches. Our implementation Nike competed in the LTLf Realizability Track in the 2023 edition of SYNTCOMP, and won the competition.
MULTI3NLU++: A Multilingual, Multi-Intent, Multi-Domain Dataset for Natural Language Understanding in Task-Oriented Dialogue
Moghe, Nikita, Razumovskaia, Evgeniia, Guillou, Liane, Vulić, Ivan, Korhonen, Anna, Birch, Alexandra
Task-oriented dialogue (TOD) systems have been widely deployed in many industries as they deliver more efficient customer support. These systems are typically constructed for a single domain or language and do not generalise well beyond this. To support work on Natural Language Understanding (NLU) in TOD across multiple languages and domains simultaneously, we constructed MULTI3NLU++, a multilingual, multi-intent, multi-domain dataset. MULTI3NLU++ extends the English only NLU++ dataset to include manual translations into a range of high, medium, and low resource languages (Spanish, Marathi, Turkish and Amharic), in two domains (BANKING and HOTELS). Because of its multi-intent property, MULTI3NLU++ represents complex and natural user goals, and therefore allows us to measure the realistic performance of TOD systems in a varied set of the world's languages. We use MULTI3NLU++ to benchmark state-of-the-art multilingual models for the NLU tasks of intent detection and slot labelling for TOD systems in the multilingual setting. The results demonstrate the challenging nature of the dataset, particularly in the low-resource language setting, offering ample room for future experimentation in multi-domain multilingual TOD setups.