Active inference is a normative framework for generating behaviour based upon the free energy principle, a theory of self-organisation. This framework has been successfully used to solve reinforcement learning and stochastic control problems, yet, the formal relation between active inference and reward maximisation has not been fully explicated. In this paper, we consider the relation between active inference and dynamic programming under the Bellman equation, which underlies many approaches to reinforcement learning and control. We show that, on partially observable Markov decision processes, dynamic programming is a limiting case of active inference. In active inference, agents select actions to minimise expected free energy. In the absence of ambiguity about states, this reduces to matching expected states with a target distribution encoding the agent's preferences. When target states correspond to rewarding states, this maximises expected reward, as in reinforcement learning. When states are ambiguous, active inference agents will choose actions that simultaneously minimise ambiguity. This allows active inference agents to supplement their reward maximising (or exploitative) behaviour with novelty-seeking (or exploratory) behaviour. This clarifies the connection between active inference and reinforcement learning, and how both frameworks may benefit from each other.

Bayesian predictive coding is a putative neuromorphic method for acquiring higher-level neural representations to account for sensory input. Although originating in the neuroscience community, there are also efforts in the machine learning community to study these models. This paper reviews some of the more well known models. Our review analyzes module connectivity and patterns of information transfer, seeking to find general principles used across the models. We also survey some recent attempts to cast these models within a deep learning framework. A defining feature of Bayesian predictive coding is that it uses top-down, reconstructive mechanisms to predict incoming sensory inputs or their lower-level representations. Discrepancies between the predicted and the actual inputs, known as prediction errors, then give rise to future learning that refines and improves the predictive accuracy of learned higher-level representations. Predictive coding models intended to describe computations in the neocortex emerged prior to the development of deep learning and used a communication structure between modules that we name the Rao-Ballard protocol. This protocol was derived from a Bayesian generative model with some rather strong statistical assumptions. The RB protocol provides a rubric to assess the fidelity of deep learning models that claim to implement predictive coding.

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Hardware, systems and algorithms research communities have historically had different incentive structures and fluctuating motivation to engage with each other explicitly. This historical treatment is odd given that hardware and software have frequently determined which research ideas succeed (and fail). This essay introduces the term hardware lottery to describe when a research idea wins because it is suited to the available software and hardware and not because the idea is superior to alternative research directions. Examples from early computer science history illustrate how hardware lotteries can delay research progress by casting successful ideas as failures. These lessons are particularly salient given the advent of domain specialized hardware which make it increasingly costly to stray off of the beaten path of research ideas. This essay posits that the gains from progress in computing are likely to become even more uneven, with certain research directions moving into the fast-lane while progress on others is further obstructed.

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