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Kastamonu Education Journal » Submission » An Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Predicting and Understanding Dropouts in MOOCs

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict dropouts in two runs of the same MOOC using an explainable machine learning approach. With the explainable approach, we aim to enable the interpretation of the black-box predictive models from a pedagogical perspective and to produce actionable insights for related educational interventions. The similarity and the differences in feature importance between the predictive models were also examined. Design/Methodology/Approach: This is a quantitative study performed on a large public dataset containing activity logs in a MOOC. In total, 21 features were generated and standardized before the analysis. Multi-layer perceptron neural network was used as the black-box machine learning algorithm to build the predictive models.


Practical Bandits: An Industry Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The bandit paradigm provides a unified modeling framework for problems that require decision-making under uncertainty. Because many business metrics can be viewed as rewards (a.k.a. utilities) that result from actions, bandit algorithms have seen a large and growing interest from industrial applications, such as search, recommendation and advertising. Indeed, with the bandit lens comes the promise of direct optimisation for the metrics we care about. Nevertheless, the road to successfully applying bandits in production is not an easy one. Even when the action space and rewards are well-defined, practitioners still need to make decisions regarding multi-arm or contextual approaches, on- or off-policy setups, delayed or immediate feedback, myopic or long-term optimisation, etc. To make matters worse, industrial platforms typically give rise to large action spaces in which existing approaches tend to break down. The research literature on these topics is broad and vast, but this can overwhelm practitioners, whose primary aim is to solve practical problems, and therefore need to decide on a specific instantiation or approach for each project. This tutorial will take a step towards filling that gap between the theory and practice of bandits. Our goal is to present a unified overview of the field and its existing terminology, concepts and algorithms -- with a focus on problems relevant to industry. We hope our industrial perspective will help future practitioners who wish to leverage the bandit paradigm for their application.


Offline Estimation of Controlled Markov Chains: Minimaxity and Sample Complexity

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this work, we study a natural nonparametric estimator of the transition probability matrices of a finite controlled Markov chain. We consider an offline setting with a fixed dataset, collected using a so-called logging policy. We develop sample complexity bounds for the estimator and establish conditions for minimaxity. Our statistical bounds depend on the logging policy through its mixing properties. We show that achieving a particular statistical risk bound involves a subtle and interesting trade-off between the strength of the mixing properties and the number of samples. We demonstrate the validity of our results under various examples, such as ergodic Markov chains, weakly ergodic inhomogeneous Markov chains, and controlled Markov chains with non-stationary Markov, episodic, and greedy controls. Lastly, we use these sample complexity bounds to establish concomitant ones for offline evaluation of stationary Markov control policies.


Charting the Sociotechnical Gap in Explainable AI: A Framework to Address the Gap in XAI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Explainable AI (XAI) systems are sociotechnical in nature; thus, they are subject to the sociotechnical gap--divide between the technical affordances and the social needs. However, charting this gap is challenging. In the context of XAI, we argue that charting the gap improves our problem understanding, which can reflexively provide actionable insights to improve explainability. Utilizing two case studies in distinct domains, we empirically derive a framework that facilitates systematic charting of the sociotechnical gap by connecting AI guidelines in the context of XAI and elucidating how to use them to address the gap. We apply the framework to a third case in a new domain, showcasing its affordances. Finally, we discuss conceptual implications of the framework, share practical considerations in its operationalization, and offer guidance on transferring it to new contexts. By making conceptual and practical contributions to understanding the sociotechnical gap in XAI, the framework expands the XAI design space.


Algorithm Design for Online Meta-Learning with Task Boundary Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Online meta-learning has recently emerged as a marriage between batch meta-learning and online learning, for achieving the capability of quick adaptation on new tasks in a lifelong manner. However, most existing approaches focus on the restrictive setting where the distribution of the online tasks remains fixed with known task boundaries. In this work, we relax these assumptions and propose a novel algorithm for task-agnostic online meta-learning in non-stationary environments. More specifically, we first propose two simple but effective detection mechanisms of task switches and distribution shift based on empirical observations, which serve as a key building block for more elegant online model updates in our algorithm: the task switch detection mechanism allows reusing of the best model available for the current task at hand, and the distribution shift detection mechanism differentiates the meta model update in order to preserve the knowledge for in-distribution tasks and quickly learn the new knowledge for out-of-distribution tasks. In particular, our online meta model updates are based only on the current data, which eliminates the need of storing previous data as required in most existing methods. We further show that a sublinear task-averaged regret can be achieved for our algorithm under mild conditions. Empirical studies on three different benchmarks clearly demonstrate the significant advantage of our algorithm over related baseline approaches.


Developing Hands-on Labs for Source Code Vulnerability Detection with AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

As the role of information and communication technologies gradually increases in our lives, source code security becomes a significant issue to protect against malicious attempts. Furthermore, with the advent of data-driven techniques, there is now a growing interest in leveraging machine learning and natural language processing (NLP) as a source code assurance method to build trustworthy systems. Therefore, training our future software developers to write secure source code is in high demand. In this thesis, we propose a framework including learning modules and handson labs to guide future IT professionals towards developing secure programming habits and mitigating source code vulnerabilities at the early stages of the software development lifecycle. In this thesis, our goal is to design learning modules with a set of hands-on labs that will introduce students to secure programming practices using source code and log file analysis tools to predict/identify vulnerabilities. In a Secure Coding Education framework called (SeCodEd) we will (1) improve students' skills and awareness on source code vulnerabilities, detection tools, and mitigation techniques; (2) integrate concepts of source code vulnerabilities from Function, API, and library level to bad programming habits and practices; (3) leverage deep learning, NLP and static analysis tools for log file analysis to introduce the root cause of source code vulnerabilities.


Learn Machine Learning From These GitHub Repositories - KDnuggets

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If you haven't already had a chance to look at Learn Data Science From These GitHub Repositories, check it out. You may find some of the GitHub repositories mentioned useful to your machine learning journey. Knowing data science to the core will help your machine learning career excel. As you're trying to work towards your machine learning goals this new year, you may be tempted by the online courses and BootCamps that are popping up. It can be difficult to choose the right one, and it can be costly when you keep on choosing the wrong one.


Is Machine Learning Hard? A Guide to Getting Started

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Machine learning is an advanced field that incorporates many aspects of mathematics, computer science, and coding. A career in machine learning typically requires a Master's of Science degree. The education and training involved in machine learning can require intense dedication, depth of knowledge, and attention to detail. You can get started with machine learning by learning coding languages, practicing fine-tuning algorithms, and paying close attention to artificial intelligence applications for products and services. Everything from the technology of a Tesla vehicle, Netflix's recommendation algorithms, c or speech-to-text recognition on your iPhone represents an innovation in machine learning. You can find information about machine learning from a breadth of free, accessible resources.


Online Coding Classes for Kids, Artificial Intelligence Courses

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MethdAI offers Best online coding classes for kids. Learn from Experienced Mentors, with our online coding classes for kids.We offers artificial intelligence courses, data manipulation, data visualization, online machine learning courses at very affordable prices.Visit our website and book your seat now.


A Prescriptive Learning Analytics Framework: Beyond Predictive Modelling and onto Explainable AI with Prescriptive Analytics and ChatGPT

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.