To master a discipline such as algebra or physics, students must acquire a set of cognitive skills. Traditionally, educators and domain experts manually determine what these skills are and then select practice exercises to hone a particular skill. We propose a technique that uses student performance data to automatically discover the skills needed in a discipline. The technique assigns a latent skill to each exercise such that a student's expected accuracy on a sequence of same-skill exercises improves monotonically with practice. Rather than discarding the skills identified by experts, our technique incorporates a nonparametric prior over the exercise-skill assignments that is based on the expert-provided skills and a weighted Chinese restaurant process. We test our technique on datasets from five different intelligent tutoring systems designed for students ranging in age from middle school through college. We obtain two surprising results. First, in three of the five datasets, the skills inferred by our technique support significantly improved predictions of student performance over the expert-provided skills. Second, the expert-provided skills have little value: our technique predicts student performance nearly as well when it ignores the domain expertise as when it attempts to leverage it. We discuss explanations for these surprising results and also the relationship of our skill-discovery technique to alternative approaches.

We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. The field of tracking is broad and possesses many applications, particularly in radar/sonar [1], robotics [14], and computer vision [3]. Consider the following problem: A radar is tracking a flying object, referred to as atarget, using measurements of range, bearing, and elevation; it may also have Doppler measurements of radial velocity.

We extend generative stochastic networks to supervised learning of representations. In particular, we introduce a hybrid training objective considering a generative and discriminative cost function governed by a trade-off parameter lambda. We use a new variant of network training involving noise injection, i.e. walkback training, to jointly optimize multiple network layers. Neither additional regularization constraints, such as l1, l2 norms or dropout variants, nor pooling- or convolutional layers were added. Nevertheless, we are able to obtain state-of-the-art performance on the MNIST dataset, without using permutation invariant digits and outperform baseline models on sub-variants of the MNIST and rectangles dataset significantly.

A continuous-time Markov process (CTMP) is a collection of variables indexed by a continuous quantity, time. It obeys the Markov property that the distribution over a future variable is independent of past variables given the state at the present time. We introduce continuous-time Markov process representations and algorithms for filtering, smoothing, expected sufficient statistics calculations, and model estimation, assuming no prior knowledge of continuous-time processes but some basic knowledge of probability and statistics. We begin by describing "flat" or unstructured Markov processes and then move to structured Markov processes (those arising from state spaces consisting of assignments to variables) including Kronecker, decision-diagram, and continuous-time Bayesian network representations. We provide the first connection between decision-diagrams and continuous-time Bayesian networks.

Machine learning offers novel ways and means to design personalized learning systems wherein each student's educational experience is customized in real time depending on their background, learning goals, and performance to date. SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) is a novel framework for machine learning-based learning analytics, which estimates a learner's knowledge of the concepts underlying a domain, and content analytics, which estimates the relationships among a collection of questions and those concepts. SPARFA jointly learns the associations among the questions and the concepts, learner concept knowledge profiles, and the underlying question difficulties, solely based on the correct/incorrect graded responses of a population of learners to a collection of questions. In this paper, we extend the SPARFA framework significantly to enable: (i) the analysis of graded responses on an ordinal scale (partial credit) rather than a binary scale (correct/incorrect); (ii) the exploitation of tags/labels for questions that partially describe the question{concept associations. The resulting Ordinal SPARFA-Tag framework greatly enhances the interpretability of the estimated concepts. We demonstrate using real educational data that Ordinal SPARFA-Tag outperforms both SPARFA and existing collaborative filtering techniques in predicting missing learner responses.

The recently proposed SPARse Factor Analysis (SPARFA) framework for personalized learning performs factor analysis on ordinal or binary-valued (e.g., correct/incorrect) graded learner responses to questions. The underlying factors are termed "concepts" (or knowledge components) and are used for learning analytics (LA), the estimation of learner concept-knowledge profiles, and for content analytics (CA), the estimation of question-concept associations and question difficulties. While SPARFA is a powerful tool for LA and CA, it requires a number of algorithm parameters (including the number of concepts), which are difficult to determine in practice. In this paper, we propose SPARFA-Lite, a convex optimization-based method for LA that builds on matrix completion, which only requires a single algorithm parameter and enables us to automatically identify the required number of concepts. Using a variety of educational datasets, we demonstrate that SPARFALite (i) achieves comparable performance in predicting unobserved learner responses to existing methods, including item response theory (IRT) and SPARFA, and (ii) is computationally more efficient.

In recent years, adaptive learning systems rely increasingly on learning hierarchy to customize the educational logic developed in their courses. Most approaches do not consider that the relationships of prerequisites between the skills are fuzzy relationships. In this article, we describe a new approach of a practical application of fuzzy logic techniques to the construction of learning hierarchies. For this, we use a learning hierarchy predefined by one or more experts of a specific field. However, the relationships of prerequisites between the skills in the learning hierarchy are not definitive and they are fuzzy relationships. Indeed, we measure relevance degree of all relationships existing in this learning hierarchy and we try to answer to the following question: Is the relationships of prerequisites predefined in initial learning hierarchy are correctly established or not?

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum likelihood estimates from corrupted or incomplete data. The convergence speed-up is an example of a noise benefit or "stochastic resonance" in statistical signal processing. The dissertation presents derivations of sufficient conditions for such noise-benefits and demonstrates the speed-up in some ubiquitous signal-processing algorithms. These algorithms include parameter estimation for mixture models, the $k$-means clustering algorithm, the Baum-Welch algorithm for training hidden Markov models, and backpropagation for training feedforward artificial neural networks. This dissertation also analyses the effects of data and model corruption on the more general Bayesian inference estimation framework. The main finding is a theorem guaranteeing that uniform approximators for Bayesian model functions produce uniform approximators for the posterior pdf via Bayes theorem. This result also applies to hierarchical and multidimensional Bayesian models.

This paper establishes the consistency of a family of graph-cut-based algorithms for clustering of data clouds. We consider point clouds obtained as samples of a ground-truth measure. We investigate approaches to clustering based on minimizing objective functionals defined on proximity graphs of the given sample. Our focus is on functionals based on graph cuts like the Cheeger and ratio cuts. We show that minimizers of the these cuts converge as the sample size increases to a minimizer of a corresponding continuum cut (which partitions the ground truth measure). Moreover, we obtain sharp conditions on how the connectivity radius can be scaled with respect to the number of sample points for the consistency to hold. We provide results for two-way and for multiway cuts. Furthermore we provide numerical experiments that illustrate the results and explore the optimality of scaling in dimension two.

Engagement is a key factor in every social interaction, be it between humans or humans and robots. Many studies were aimed at designing robot behavior in order to sustain human engagement. Infants and children, however, learn how to engage their caregivers to receive more attention.We used a social robot platform, DragonBot, that learned which of its social behaviors retained human engagement. This was achieved by implementing a reinforcement learning algorithm, wherein the reward is the proximity and number of people near the robot. The experiment was run in the World Science Festival in New York, where hundreds of people interacted with the robot. After more than two continuous hours of interaction, the robot learned by itself that making a sad face was the most rewarding expression. Further analysis showed that after a sad face, people's engagement rose for thirty seconds. In other words, the robot learned by itself in two hours that almost no-one leaves a sad DragonBot.