Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have received widespread attention for their potential to scale higher education, with multiple platforms such as Coursera, edX and Udacity recently appearing. Despite their successes, a major problem faced by MOOCs is low completion rates. In this paper, we explore the accurate early identification of students who are at risk of not completing courses. We build predictive models weekly, over multiple offerings of a course. Furthermore, we envision student interventions that present meaningful probabilities of failure, enacted only for marginal students.To be effective, predicted probabilities must be both well-calibrated and smoothed across weeks.Based on logistic regression, we propose two transfer learning algorithms to trade-off smoothness and accuracy by adding a regularization term to minimize the difference of failure probabilities between consecutive weeks. Experimental results on two offerings of a Coursera MOOC establish the effectiveness of our algorithms.

In this paper, I summarize the results of a decade-plus of research and development driven by the vision that human knowledge can be grounded in a small number of prototypical components that can be extended through composition and analogy. These ideas have been embodied in a system called AURA, which has been used to engineer an expressive knowledge base for an intelligent biology textbook. The focus of the current paper is to abstract away from the specifics and, to instead describe the core ideas in such a manner that they can be transferred and applied in different contexts, and to relate those ideas to the ongoing research by others.

The overarching goal of music theory is to explain the inner workings of a musical composition by examining the structure of the composition. Schenkerian music theory supposes that Western tonal compositions can be viewed as hierarchies of musical objects. The process of Schenkerian analysis reveals this hierarchy by identifying connections between notes or chords of a composition that illustrate both the small- and large-scale construction of the music. We present a new probabilistic model of this variety of music analysis, details of how the parameters of the model can be learned from a corpus, an algorithm for deriving the most probable analysis for a given piece of music, and both quantitative and human-based evaluations of the algorithm's performance. This represents the first large-scale data-driven computational approach to hierarchical music analysis.

The “Cognitive Master Teacher” is a result of discussions with teachers, members of educational institutions, government bodies and other thought leaders in the United States who have helped us shape its the requirements. It is conceived as a cloud-based and mobile-accessible personal agent that is readily available for teachers to use at anytime and assist them with various issues related to day-to-day teaching activities as well as professional development.

With the enormous scale of massive open online courses (MOOCs), peer grading is vital for addressing the assessment challenge for open-ended assignments or exams while at the same time providing students with an effective learning experience through involvement in the grading process. Most existing MOOC platforms use simple schemes for aggregating peer grades, e.g., taking the median or mean. To enhance these schemes, some recent research attempts have developed machine learning methods under either the cardinal setting (for absolute judgment) or the ordinal setting (for relative judgment). In this paper, we seek to study both cardinal and ordinal aspects of peer grading within a common framework. First, we propose novel extensions to some existing probabilistic graphical models for cardi- nal peer grading. Not only do these extensions give su- perior performance in cardinal evaluation, but they also outperform conventional ordinal models in ordinal eval- uation. Next, we combine cardinal and ordinal models by augmenting ordinal models with cardinal predictions as prior. Such combination can achieve further performance boosts in both cardinal and ordinal evaluations, suggesting a new research direction to pursue for peer grading on MOOCs. Extensive experiments have been conducted using real peer grading data from a course called “Science, Technology, and Society in China I” offered by HKUST on the Coursera platform.

Increased interest in web-based education has spurred the proliferation of online learning environments. However, these platforms suffer from high dropout rates due to lack of sustained motivation among the students taking the course. In an effort to address this problem, we propose an incentive-based, instructor-driven approach to orchestrate the interactions in online educational forums (OEFs). Our approach takes into account the heterogeneity in skills among the students as well as the limited budget available to the instructor. We first analytically model OEFs in a non-strategic setting using ideas from lumpable continuous time Markov chains and compute expected aggregate transient net-rewards for the instructor and the students. We next consider a strategic setting where we use the rewards computed above to set up a mixed-integer linear program which views an OEF as a single-leader-multiple-followers Stackelberg game and recommends an optimal plan to the instructor for maximizing student participation. Our experimental results reveal several interesting phenomena including a striking non-monotonicity in the level of participation of students vis-a-vis the instructor's arrival rate.

We consider an autonomous agent facing a partially observable, stochastic, multiagent environment where the unknown policies of other agents are represented as finite state controllers (FSCs). We show how an agent can (i) learn the FSCs of the other agents, and (ii) exploit these models during interactions. To separate the issues of off-line versus on-line learning we consider here an off-line two-phase approach. During the first phase the agent observes as the other player(s) are interacting with the environment (the observations may be imperfect and the learning agent is not taking part in the interaction.) The collected data is used to learn an ensemble of FSCs that explain the behavior of the other agent(s) using a Bayesian non-parametric (BNP) approach. We verify the quality of the learned models during the second phase by allowing the agent to compute its own optimal policy and interact with the observed agent. The optimal policy for the learning agent is obtained by solving an interactive POMDP in which the states are augmented by the other agent(s)' possible FSCs. The advantage of using the Bayesian nonparametric approach in the first phase is that the complexity (number of nodes) of the learned controllers is not bounded a priori. Our two-phase approach is preliminary and separates the learning using BNP from the complexities of learning on-line while the other agent may be modifying its policy (on-line approach is subject of our future work.) We describe our implementation and results in a multiagent Tiger domain. Our results show that learning improves the agent's performance, which increases with the amount of data collected during the learning phase.

While the number of women who choose to pursue computer science and engineering careers is growing, men continue to largely outnumber them. In this paper, we describe a data mining approach that relies on a large collection of scientific articles to identify differences in gender interests in this field. Our hope is that through a better understanding of the differences between male and female preferences, we can enable more effective outreach and retention, and consequently contribute to the growth of the number of women who choose to pursue careers in this field.

The cultural and political implications of modern AI research are not some far off concern, they are things that affect the world in the here and now. From advanced control systems with advanced visualizations and image processing techniques that drive the machines of the modern military to the slow creep of a mechanized workforce, ethical questions surround us. Part of dealing with these ethical questions is not just speculating on what could be but teaching our students how to engage with these ethical questions. We explore the use of science fiction as an appropriate tool to enable AI researchers to help engage students and the public on the current state and potential impacts of AI.

Why does Deep Learning work? What representations does it capture? How do higher-order representations emerge? We study these questions from the perspective of group theory, thereby opening a new approach towards a theory of Deep learning. One factor behind the recent resurgence of the subject is a key algorithmic step called pre-training: first search for a good generative model for the input samples, and repeat the process one layer at a time. We show deeper implications of this simple principle, by establishing a connection with the interplay of orbits and stabilizers of group actions. Although the neural networks themselves may not form groups, we show the existence of {\em shadow} groups whose elements serve as close approximations. Over the shadow groups, the pre-training step, originally introduced as a mechanism to better initialize a network, becomes equivalent to a search for features with minimal orbits. Intuitively, these features are in a way the {\em simplest}. Which explains why a deep learning network learns simple features first. Next, we show how the same principle, when repeated in the deeper layers, can capture higher order representations, and why representation complexity increases as the layers get deeper.