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Co-Trained Retriever-Generator Framework for Question Generation in Earnings Calls

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In diverse professional environments, ranging from academic conferences to corporate earnings calls, the ability to anticipate audience questions stands paramount. Traditional methods, which rely on manual assessment of an audience's background, interests, and subject knowledge, often fall short - particularly when facing large or heterogeneous groups, leading to imprecision and inefficiency. While NLP has made strides in text-based question generation, its primary focus remains on academic settings, leaving the intricate challenges of professional domains, especially earnings call conferences, underserved. Addressing this gap, our paper pioneers the multi-question generation (MQG) task specifically designed for earnings call contexts. Our methodology involves an exhaustive collection of earnings call transcripts and a novel annotation technique to classify potential questions. Furthermore, we introduce a retriever-enhanced strategy to extract relevant information. With a core aim of generating a spectrum of potential questions that analysts might pose, we derive these directly from earnings call content. Empirical evaluations underscore our approach's edge, revealing notable excellence in the accuracy, consistency, and perplexity of the questions generated.


Trading through Earnings Seasons using Self-Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Earnings release is a key economic event in the financial markets and crucial for predicting stock movements. Earnings data gives a glimpse into how a company is doing financially and can hint at where its stock might go next. However, the irregularity of its release cycle makes it a challenge to incorporate this data in a medium-frequency algorithmic trading model and the usefulness of this data fades fast after it is released, making it tough for models to stay accurate over time. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Contrastive Earnings Transformer (CET) model, a self-supervised learning approach rooted in Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC), aiming to optimise the utilisation of earnings data. To ascertain its effectiveness, we conduct a comparative study of CET against benchmark models across diverse sectors. Our research delves deep into the intricacies of stock data, evaluating how various models, and notably CET, handle the rapidly changing relevance of earnings data over time and over different sectors. The research outcomes shed light on CET's distinct advantage in extrapolating the inherent value of earnings data over time. Its foundation on CPC allows for a nuanced understanding, facilitating consistent stock predictions even as the earnings data ages. This finding about CET presents a fresh approach to better use earnings data in algorithmic trading for predicting stock price trends.


NER-Luxury: Named entity recognition for the fashion and luxury domain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

From artistry to political economy, philosophers of Ancient Greece already discussed the meanings and ramifications of the idea of luxury (Berry, 1994). Over the last several decades, the luxury industry has morphed into a global market, one of the most valuable sectors in France, and an important sector in Europe. Nevertheless, based on aesthetic values of artistic directors, this sector has been difficult to map network effects, to quantify relevant signals, and understand optimal strategies. For many years, economists, theorists and scholars have been passionate about the pricing of luxury goods based on scarcity (Smith, 1776), on the mechanism of value according to wealthy buyers (Ricardo, 1817) (Marshall, 1890), on the social aspect of consuming luxury goods (Veblen, 1899), and on the psychological effects such as the scarcity principle, formalized in the "Commodity theory" (Brock, 1968). The economic theory of "Design Innovation and Fashion cycles" (Pesendorfer, 1995) and the response "Fashion Cycles in Economics" (Coelho et al., 2004) brings those observations to the economic field by quantifying the complex buyer interactions and the importance of branding, over the quality of raw materials, or craftsmanship. Similarly, in the socioeconomic sphere, Jean Baudrillard explained that in postindustrial societies "Sign value" (Baudrillard, 1968) has surpassed the other economic values based on production cost, and pure market value. To understand the value of luxury goods from a consumer perspective in 2024, "the Distinction" (Bourdieu, 1979), the sociology research on the cartography of social structure to understand logic of taste are no longer relevant due to the complexity of modern consumer paths, with the power of network effects with social media platforms (Rohlfs, 1974), the digital identity at the age of hyperreality (Baurdillard, 1981), and the luxury goods, as an asset class for investment strategy.


Unveiling the Potential of Graph Neural Networks in SME Credit Risk Assessment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper takes the graph neural network as the technical framework, integrates the intrinsic connections between enterprise financial indicators, and proposes a model for enterprise credit risk assessment. The main research work includes: Firstly, based on the experience of predecessors, we selected 29 enterprise financial data indicators, abstracted each indicator as a vertex, deeply analyzed the relationships between the indicators, constructed a similarity matrix of indicators, and used the maximum spanning tree algorithm to achieve the graph structure mapping of enterprises; secondly, in the representation learning phase of the mapped graph, a graph neural network model was built to obtain its embedded representation. The feature vector of each node was expanded to 32 dimensions, and three GraphSAGE operations were performed on the graph, with the results pooled using the Pool operation, and the final output of three feature vectors was averaged to obtain the graph's embedded representation; finally, a classifier was constructed using a two-layer fully connected network to complete the prediction task. Experimental results on real enterprise data show that the model proposed in this paper can well complete the multi-level credit level estimation of enterprises. Furthermore, the tree-structured graph mapping deeply portrays the intrinsic connections of various indicator data of the company, and according to the ROC and other evaluation criteria, the model's classification effect is significant and has good "robustness".


Disentangling the sources of cyber risk premia

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We use a methodology based on a machine learning algorithm to quantify firms' cyber risks based on their disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus. The model can identify paragraphs related to determined cyber-threat types and accordingly attribute several related cyber scores to the firm. The cyber scores are unrelated to other firms' characteristics. Stocks with high cyber scores significantly outperform other stocks. The long-short cyber risk factors have positive risk premia, are robust to all factors' benchmarks, and help price returns. Furthermore, we suggest the market does not distinguish between different types of cyber risks but instead views them as a single, aggregate cyber risk.


Automate Strategy Finding with LLM in Quant investment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite significant progress in deep learning for financial trading, existing models often face instability and high uncertainty, hindering their practical application. Leveraging advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) and multi-agent architectures, we propose a novel framework for quantitative stock investment in portfolio management and alpha mining. Our framework addresses these issues by integrating LLMs to generate diversified alphas and employing a multi-agent approach to dynamically evaluate market conditions. This paper proposes a framework where large language models (LLMs) mine alpha factors from multimodal financial data, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. The first module extracts predictive signals by integrating numerical data, research papers, and visual charts. The second module uses ensemble learning to construct a diverse pool of trading agents with varying risk preferences, enhancing strategy performance through a broader market analysis. In the third module, a dynamic weight-gating mechanism selects and assigns weights to the most relevant agents based on real-time market conditions, enabling the creation of an adaptive and context-aware composite alpha formula. Extensive experiments on the Chinese stock markets demonstrate that this framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple financial metrics. The results underscore the efficacy of combining LLM-generated alphas with a multi-agent architecture to achieve superior trading performance and stability. This work highlights the potential of AI-driven approaches in enhancing quantitative investment strategies and sets a new benchmark for integrating advanced machine learning techniques in financial trading can also be applied on diverse markets.


Nvidia shares fall after investors spooked by slowing growth

The Guardian

Shares in the chip designer Nvidia have fallen after investors were spooked by signs of slowing growth and production issues, despite the artificial intelligence company posting a 122% rise in second-quarter revenues compared with the same period last year. The Silicon Valley company's revenues for the period more than doubled to 30bn ( 23bn), beating average analyst estimates of 28.7bn. However, investors were concerned about signs of a slowdown in growth, in particular around its next-generation AI chips, code-named Blackwell. The stock fell as much as 7% in pre-market trading, before paring back losses to a 3% fall. The chipmaker is the third most valuable company in the world, with a market value of 3.1tn.


Nvidia rides big tech's AI investment to beat Wall Street's sky-high expectations

The Guardian

Chipmaker Nvidia reported its latest financial results on Wednesday, recording 30.04bn in revenue over the past three months – a 122% jump from the year prior – and showing that artificial intelligence investment mania shows no signs of cooling. Analysts had anticipated about 28.7bn in revenue. Shares slid more than 3% in after-hours trading. "The company continues to benefit from a market paradox: big tech's aggressive AI investment strategies drive massive demand for Nvidia's chips, even as these same companies invest in developing their own silicon," said Jacob Bourne, a technology analyst with Emarketer. Nvidia has told customers that its next-generation AI chips, code-named Blackwell, will be delayed several months from January, though early samples are shipping to a small group of customers now.


Open-FinLLMs: Open Multimodal Large Language Models for Financial Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have advanced financial applications, yet they often lack sufficient financial knowledge and struggle with tasks involving multi-modal inputs like tables and time series data. To address these limitations, we introduce \textit{Open-FinLLMs}, a series of Financial LLMs. We begin with FinLLaMA, pre-trained on a 52 billion token financial corpus, incorporating text, tables, and time-series data to embed comprehensive financial knowledge. FinLLaMA is then instruction fine-tuned with 573K financial instructions, resulting in FinLLaMA-instruct, which enhances task performance. Finally, we present FinLLaVA, a multimodal LLM trained with 1.43M image-text instructions to handle complex financial data types. Extensive evaluations demonstrate FinLLaMA's superior performance over LLaMA3-8B, LLaMA3.1-8B, and BloombergGPT in both zero-shot and few-shot settings across 19 and 4 datasets, respectively. FinLLaMA-instruct outperforms GPT-4 and other Financial LLMs on 15 datasets. FinLLaVA excels in understanding tables and charts across 4 multimodal tasks. Additionally, FinLLaMA achieves impressive Sharpe Ratios in trading simulations, highlighting its robust financial application capabilities. We will continually maintain and improve our models and benchmarks to support ongoing innovation in academia and industry.


Harnessing Earnings Reports for Stock Predictions: A QLoRA-Enhanced LLM Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate stock market predictions following earnings reports are crucial for investors. Traditional methods, particularly classical machine learning models, struggle with these predictions because they cannot effectively process and interpret extensive textual data contained in earnings reports and often overlook nuances that influence market movements. This paper introduces an advanced approach by employing Large Language Models (LLMs) instruction fine-tuned with a novel combination of instruction-based techniques and quantized low-rank adaptation (QLoRA) compression. Our methodology integrates 'base factors', such as financial metric growth and earnings transcripts, with 'external factors', including recent market indices performances and analyst grades, to create a rich, supervised dataset. This comprehensive dataset enables our models to achieve superior predictive performance in terms of accuracy, weighted F1, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC), especially evident in the comparison with benchmarks such as GPT-4. We specifically highlight the efficacy of the llama-3-8b-Instruct-4bit model, which showcases significant improvements over baseline models. The paper also discusses the potential of expanding the output capabilities to include a 'Hold' option and extending the prediction horizon, aiming to accommodate various investment styles and time frames. This study not only demonstrates the power of integrating cutting-edge AI with fine-tuned financial data but also paves the way for future research in enhancing AI-driven financial analysis tools.