LLMs are ideal for decision-making due to their ability to reason over long contexts and identify critical factors. However, challenges arise when processing transcripts of spoken speech describing complex scenarios. These transcripts often contain ungrammatical or incomplete sentences, repetitions, hedging, and vagueness. For example, during a company's earnings call, an executive might project a positive revenue outlook to reassure investors, despite significant uncertainty regarding future earnings. It is crucial for LLMs to incorporate this uncertainty systematically when making decisions. In this paper, we introduce DeFine, a new framework that constructs probabilistic factor profiles from complex scenarios. DeFine then integrates these profiles with analogical reasoning, leveraging insights from similar past experiences to guide LLMs in making critical decisions in novel situations. Our framework separates the tasks of quantifying uncertainty in complex scenarios and incorporating it into LLM decision-making. This approach is particularly useful in fields such as medical consultations, negotiations, and political debates, where making decisions under uncertainty is vital.

This paper explores the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the generation and evaluation of analytical reports derived from Earnings Calls (ECs). Addressing a current gap in research, we explore the generation of analytical reports with LLMs in a multi-agent framework, designing specialized agents that introduce diverse viewpoints and desirable topics of analysis into the report generation process. Through multiple analyses, we examine the alignment between generated and human-written reports and the impact of both individual and collective agents. Our findings suggest that the introduction of additional agents results in more insightful reports, although reports generated by human experts remain preferred in the majority of cases. Finally, we address the challenging issue of report evaluation, we examine the limitations and strengths of LLMs in assessing the quality of generated reports in different settings, revealing a significant correlation with human experts across multiple dimensions.

Question answering (QA) has been a long-standing focus in the NLP field, predominantly addressing reading comprehension and common sense QA. However, scenarios involving the preparation of answers to probable questions during professional oral presentations remain underexplored. In this paper, we pioneer the examination of this crucial yet overlooked topic by utilizing real-world QA conversation transcripts between company managers and professional analysts. We explore the proposed task using three causal knowledge graphs (KGs) and three large language models (LLMs). This work provides foundational insights into the application of LLMs in professional QA scenarios, highlighting the importance of causal KGs and perspective-taking in generating effective responses.

Many of the recent breakthroughs in language modeling have resulted from scaling effectively the same model architecture to larger datasets. In this vein, recent work has highlighted performance gains from increasing training dataset size and quality, suggesting a need for novel sources of large-scale datasets. In this work, we introduce BeanCounter, a public dataset consisting of more than 159B tokens extracted from businesses' disclosures. We show that this data is indeed novel: less than 0.1% of BeanCounter appears in Common Crawl-based datasets and it is an order of magnitude larger than datasets relying on similar sources. Given the data's provenance, we hypothesize that BeanCounter is comparatively more factual and less toxic than web-based datasets. Exploring this hypothesis, we find that many demographic identities occur with similar prevalence in BeanCounter but with significantly less toxic context relative to other datasets. To demonstrate the utility of BeanCounter, we evaluate and compare two LLMs continually pre-trained on BeanCounter with their base models. We find an 18-33% reduction in toxic generation and improved performance within the finance domain for the continually pretrained models. Collectively, our work suggests that BeanCounter is a novel source of low-toxicity and high-quality domain-specific data with sufficient scale to train multi-billion parameter LLMs.

In diverse professional environments, ranging from academic conferences to corporate earnings calls, the ability to anticipate audience questions stands paramount. Traditional methods, which rely on manual assessment of an audience's background, interests, and subject knowledge, often fall short - particularly when facing large or heterogeneous groups, leading to imprecision and inefficiency. While NLP has made strides in text-based question generation, its primary focus remains on academic settings, leaving the intricate challenges of professional domains, especially earnings call conferences, underserved. Addressing this gap, our paper pioneers the multi-question generation (MQG) task specifically designed for earnings call contexts. Our methodology involves an exhaustive collection of earnings call transcripts and a novel annotation technique to classify potential questions. Furthermore, we introduce a retriever-enhanced strategy to extract relevant information. With a core aim of generating a spectrum of potential questions that analysts might pose, we derive these directly from earnings call content. Empirical evaluations underscore our approach's edge, revealing notable excellence in the accuracy, consistency, and perplexity of the questions generated.

Earnings release is a key economic event in the financial markets and crucial for predicting stock movements. Earnings data gives a glimpse into how a company is doing financially and can hint at where its stock might go next. However, the irregularity of its release cycle makes it a challenge to incorporate this data in a medium-frequency algorithmic trading model and the usefulness of this data fades fast after it is released, making it tough for models to stay accurate over time. Addressing this challenge, we introduce the Contrastive Earnings Transformer (CET) model, a self-supervised learning approach rooted in Contrastive Predictive Coding (CPC), aiming to optimise the utilisation of earnings data. To ascertain its effectiveness, we conduct a comparative study of CET against benchmark models across diverse sectors. Our research delves deep into the intricacies of stock data, evaluating how various models, and notably CET, handle the rapidly changing relevance of earnings data over time and over different sectors. The research outcomes shed light on CET's distinct advantage in extrapolating the inherent value of earnings data over time. Its foundation on CPC allows for a nuanced understanding, facilitating consistent stock predictions even as the earnings data ages. This finding about CET presents a fresh approach to better use earnings data in algorithmic trading for predicting stock price trends.

From artistry to political economy, philosophers of Ancient Greece already discussed the meanings and ramifications of the idea of luxury (Berry, 1994). Over the last several decades, the luxury industry has morphed into a global market, one of the most valuable sectors in France, and an important sector in Europe. Nevertheless, based on aesthetic values of artistic directors, this sector has been difficult to map network effects, to quantify relevant signals, and understand optimal strategies. For many years, economists, theorists and scholars have been passionate about the pricing of luxury goods based on scarcity (Smith, 1776), on the mechanism of value according to wealthy buyers (Ricardo, 1817) (Marshall, 1890), on the social aspect of consuming luxury goods (Veblen, 1899), and on the psychological effects such as the scarcity principle, formalized in the "Commodity theory" (Brock, 1968). The economic theory of "Design Innovation and Fashion cycles" (Pesendorfer, 1995) and the response "Fashion Cycles in Economics" (Coelho et al., 2004) brings those observations to the economic field by quantifying the complex buyer interactions and the importance of branding, over the quality of raw materials, or craftsmanship. Similarly, in the socioeconomic sphere, Jean Baudrillard explained that in postindustrial societies "Sign value" (Baudrillard, 1968) has surpassed the other economic values based on production cost, and pure market value. To understand the value of luxury goods from a consumer perspective in 2024, "the Distinction" (Bourdieu, 1979), the sociology research on the cartography of social structure to understand logic of taste are no longer relevant due to the complexity of modern consumer paths, with the power of network effects with social media platforms (Rohlfs, 1974), the digital identity at the age of hyperreality (Baurdillard, 1981), and the luxury goods, as an asset class for investment strategy.

This paper takes the graph neural network as the technical framework, integrates the intrinsic connections between enterprise financial indicators, and proposes a model for enterprise credit risk assessment. The main research work includes: Firstly, based on the experience of predecessors, we selected 29 enterprise financial data indicators, abstracted each indicator as a vertex, deeply analyzed the relationships between the indicators, constructed a similarity matrix of indicators, and used the maximum spanning tree algorithm to achieve the graph structure mapping of enterprises; secondly, in the representation learning phase of the mapped graph, a graph neural network model was built to obtain its embedded representation. The feature vector of each node was expanded to 32 dimensions, and three GraphSAGE operations were performed on the graph, with the results pooled using the Pool operation, and the final output of three feature vectors was averaged to obtain the graph's embedded representation; finally, a classifier was constructed using a two-layer fully connected network to complete the prediction task. Experimental results on real enterprise data show that the model proposed in this paper can well complete the multi-level credit level estimation of enterprises. Furthermore, the tree-structured graph mapping deeply portrays the intrinsic connections of various indicator data of the company, and according to the ROC and other evaluation criteria, the model's classification effect is significant and has good "robustness".

We use a methodology based on a machine learning algorithm to quantify firms' cyber risks based on their disclosures and a dedicated cyber corpus. The model can identify paragraphs related to determined cyber-threat types and accordingly attribute several related cyber scores to the firm. The cyber scores are unrelated to other firms' characteristics. Stocks with high cyber scores significantly outperform other stocks. The long-short cyber risk factors have positive risk premia, are robust to all factors' benchmarks, and help price returns. Furthermore, we suggest the market does not distinguish between different types of cyber risks but instead views them as a single, aggregate cyber risk.

Despite significant progress in deep learning for financial trading, existing models often face instability and high uncertainty, hindering their practical application. Leveraging advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) and multi-agent architectures, we propose a novel framework for quantitative stock investment in portfolio management and alpha mining. Our framework addresses these issues by integrating LLMs to generate diversified alphas and employing a multi-agent approach to dynamically evaluate market conditions. This paper proposes a framework where large language models (LLMs) mine alpha factors from multimodal financial data, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics. The first module extracts predictive signals by integrating numerical data, research papers, and visual charts. The second module uses ensemble learning to construct a diverse pool of trading agents with varying risk preferences, enhancing strategy performance through a broader market analysis. In the third module, a dynamic weight-gating mechanism selects and assigns weights to the most relevant agents based on real-time market conditions, enabling the creation of an adaptive and context-aware composite alpha formula. Extensive experiments on the Chinese stock markets demonstrate that this framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple financial metrics. The results underscore the efficacy of combining LLM-generated alphas with a multi-agent architecture to achieve superior trading performance and stability. This work highlights the potential of AI-driven approaches in enhancing quantitative investment strategies and sets a new benchmark for integrating advanced machine learning techniques in financial trading can also be applied on diverse markets.