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After Tesla's Earnings Slide, Pressure's on for Cybercab

WIRED

Tesla brought in 20 percent less automotive revenue at the end of last year compared to the year previous, the company reported today, as demand for its electric cars appear to have dipped precipitously across the globe. The drop exceeded even some pessimistic Wall Street analysts' predictions. By late afternoon, before CEO Elon Musk and other company leaders appeared for a quarterly update call for investors, stock prices appeared relatively stable on the news. Overall, however, the electric automaker's stock price is down more than 40 percent from its late 2024 high. In a slide deck prepared for investors, Tesla pinned the drop on declines in deliveries, some which it said were related to the need to retool some of its production lines for modified versions of its best-selling electric cars.


MiMIC: Multi-Modal Indian Earnings Calls Dataset to Predict Stock Prices

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting stock market prices following corporate earnings calls remains a significant challenge for investors and researchers alike, requiring innovative approaches that can process diverse information sources. This study investigates the impact of corporate earnings calls on stock prices by introducing a multi-modal predictive model. We leverage textual data from earnings call transcripts, along with images and tables from accompanying presentations, to forecast stock price movements on the trading day immediately following these calls. To facilitate this research, we developed the MiMIC (Multi-Modal Indian Earnings Calls) dataset, encompassing companies representing the Nifty 50, Nifty MidCap 50, and Nifty Small 50 indices. The dataset includes earnings call transcripts, presentations, fundamentals, technical indicators, and subsequent stock prices. We present a multimodal analytical framework that integrates quantitative variables with predictive signals derived from textual and visual modalities, thereby enabling a holistic approach to feature representation and analysis. This multi-modal approach demonstrates the potential for integrating diverse information sources to enhance financial forecasting accuracy. To promote further research in computational economics, we have made the MiMIC dataset publicly available under the CC-NC-SA-4.0 licence. Our work contributes to the growing body of literature on market reactions to corporate communications and highlights the efficacy of multi-modal machine learning techniques in financial analysis.


An Open Source Pioneer Wants to Unleash Open Source AI Robots

WIRED

Hugging Face, a company that hosts open source artificial intelligence models and software, announced today that it has acquired Pollen Robotics, the French startup behind the bug-eyed, two-armed, humanoid robot called Reachy 2. Hugging Face plans to sell the robot and will also allow developers to download, modify, and suggest improvements to its code. "It's really important for robotics to be as open source as possible," says Clément Delangue, chief executive of Hugging Face. "When you think about physical objects doing physical things at work and at home, the level of trust and transparency I need is much higher than for something I chat with on my laptop." Simon Alibert and Rémi Cadene are research engineers in AI and robotics at Hugging Face. In videos shared by Pollen Robotics, Reachy 2 can be seen performing tricks like tidying coffee mugs and picking up fruit.


DBOT: Artificial Intelligence for Systematic Long-Term Investing

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

DBOT can value any public traded company on the basis of Damodaran's analysis, and generates a report to support its position in an attempt to mimic its analytic parent. Until recently, such capabilities of analytic twins for financial valuation were not feasible. However, with advances in large language models (LLMs) and generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), it has become possible to conduct valuations that marry numbers and reasoning to generate credible valuations that can be used for long-term investing. The implications for automation and support of various parts of the valuation exercise are profound. In this paper, we provide a method for creating a digital analytic twin, DBOT, which is designed to mimic the investment analysis of individual companies by Damodaran. Since DBOT can value every company in an index such as the S&P500, it also provide an analysis in a macro sense, for example, by valuing the S&P500 market index relative to the valuation of its individual components. From the perspective of generative AI, DBOT presents a multitude of challenges. First and foremost, LLMs must be able to reason over financial texts, charts, tables, and spreadsheets. Furthermore, DBOT requires the AI system to follow Damodaran's


Assessing Consistency and Reproducibility in the Outputs of Large Language Models: Evidence Across Diverse Finance and Accounting Tasks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of consistency and reproducibility in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs in finance and accounting research. We evaluate how consistently LLMs produce outputs given identical inputs through extensive experimentation with 50 independent runs across five common tasks: classification, sentiment analysis, summarization, text generation, and prediction. Using three OpenAI models (GPT-3.5-turbo, GPT-4o-mini, and GPT-4o), we generate over 3.4 million outputs from diverse financial source texts and data, covering MD&As, FOMC statements, finance news articles, earnings call transcripts, and financial statements. Our findings reveal substantial but task-dependent consistency, with binary classification and sentiment analysis achieving near-perfect reproducibility, while complex tasks show greater variability. More advanced models do not consistently demonstrate better consistency and reproducibility, with task-specific patterns emerging. LLMs significantly outperform expert human annotators in consistency and maintain high agreement even where human experts significantly disagree. We further find that simple aggregation strategies across 3-5 runs dramatically improve consistency. Simulation analysis reveals that despite measurable inconsistency in LLM outputs, downstream statistical inferences remain remarkably robust. These findings address concerns about what we term "G-hacking," the selective reporting of favorable outcomes from multiple Generative AI runs, by demonstrating that such risks are relatively low for finance and accounting tasks.


SoftBank seals 6.5 billion deal for chip designer Ampere

The Japan Times

SoftBank Group has agreed to acquire semiconductor designer Ampere Computing in a move that further broadens the Japanese investment firm's push into artificial intelligence infrastructure. SoftBank is buying Ampere in an all-cash transaction that values the Santa Clara, California-based firm at 6.5 billion, according to a statement. The deal for Ampere, whose early backers included Oracle and private equity firm Carlyle Group, adds to a wave of chip companies looking to capitalize on a spending boom in AI.


Extract, Match, and Score: An Evaluation Paradigm for Long Question-context-answer Triplets in Financial Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid advancement of large language models (LLMs) has sparked widespread adoption across diverse applications, making robust evaluation frameworks crucial for assessing their performance. While conventional evaluation metrics remain applicable for shorter texts, their efficacy diminishes when evaluating the quality of long-form answers. This limitation is particularly critical in real-world scenarios involving extended questions, extensive context, and long-form answers, such as financial analysis or regulatory compliance. In this paper, we use a practical financial use case to illustrate applications that handle "long question-context-answer triplets". We construct a real-world financial dataset comprising long triplets and demonstrate the inadequacies of traditional metrics. To address this, we propose an effective Extract, Match, and Score (EMS) evaluation approach tailored to the complexities of long-form LLMs' outputs, providing practitioners with a reliable methodology for assessing LLMs' performance in complex real-world scenarios.


iRobot has new Roombas, but it doesn't sound confident it'll be around to sell them

Engadget

Beyond declining sales -- the company reported that revenue decreased 47 percent in the US over the prior year in its fourth quarter earnings -- iRobot is also struggling to pay off its debts. The company took on a 200 million bridge loan to stay afloat while it waited for its 1.7 billion acquisition deal with Amazon to be approved, which it's still paying off. The European Commission ultimately investigated the acquisition in 2023, and rather than address its concerns, Amazon terminated the deal and paid out its 94 million termination fee. That wasn't enough to eliminate iRobot's problems, though. The company now plans to review its options and see if it can find another way to stick it out, including "refinancing the company's debt and exploring a potential sale or strategic transaction."


Will Neural Scaling Laws Activate Jevons' Paradox in AI Labor Markets? A Time-Varying Elasticity of Substitution (VES) Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI industry leaders often use the term ``Jevons' Paradox.'' We explore the significance of this term for artificial intelligence adoption through a time-varying elasticity of substitution framework. We develop a model connecting AI development to labor substitution through four key mechanisms: (1) increased effective computational capacity from both hardware and algorithmic improvements; (2) AI capabilities that rise logarithmically with computation following established neural scaling laws; (3) declining marginal computational costs leading to lower AI prices through competitive pressure; and (4) a resulting increase in the elasticity of substitution between AI and human labor over time. Our time-varying elasticity of substitution (VES) framework, incorporating the G\o rtz identity, yields analytical conditions for market transformation dynamics. This work provides a simple framework to help assess the economic reasoning behind industry claims that AI will increasingly substitute for human labor across diverse economic sectors.


Advanced Deep Learning Techniques for Analyzing Earnings Call Transcripts: Methodologies and Applications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study presents a comparative analysis of deep learning methodologies such as BERT, FinBERT and ULMFiT for sentiment analysis of earnings call transcripts. The objective is to investigate how Natural Language Processing (NLP) can be leveraged to extract sentiment from large-scale financial transcripts, thereby aiding in more informed investment decisions and risk management strategies. We examine the strengths and limitations of each model in the context of financial sentiment analysis, focusing on data preprocessing requirements, computational efficiency, and model optimization. Through rigorous experimentation, we evaluate their performance using key metrics, including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. Furthermore, we discuss potential enhancements to improve the effectiveness of these models in financial text analysis, providing insights into their applicability for real-world financial decision-making.