Sampling from complex target distributions is a challenging task fundamental to Bayesian inference. Parallel tempering (PT) addresses this problem by constructing a Markov chain on the expanded state space of a sequence of distributions interpolating between the posterior distribution and a fixed reference distribution, which is typically chosen to be the prior. However, in the typical case where the prior and posterior are nearly mutually singular, PT methods are computationally prohibitive. In this work we address this challenge by constructing a generalized annealing path connecting the posterior to an adaptively tuned variational reference. The reference distribution is tuned to minimize the forward (inclusive) KL divergence to the posterior distribution using a simple, gradient-free moment-matching procedure. We show that our adaptive procedure converges to the forward KL minimizer, and that the forward KL divergence serves as a good proxy to a previously developed measure of PT performance. We also show that in the large-data limit in typical Bayesian models, the proposed method improves in performance, while traditional PT deteriorates arbitrarily. Finally, we introduce PT with two references--one fixed, one variational--with a novel split annealing path that ensures stable variational reference adaptation. The paper concludes with experiments that demonstrate the large empirical gains achieved by our method in a wide range of realistic Bayesian inference scenarios.

While Reinforcement Learning (RL) aims to train an agent from a reward function in a given environment, Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) seeks to recover the reward function from observing an expert's behavior. It is well known that, in general, various reward functions can lead to the same optimal policy, and hence, IRL is ill-defined. However, [1] showed that, if we observe two or more experts with different discount factors or acting in different environments, the reward function can under certain conditions be identified up to a constant. This work starts by showing an equivalent identifiability statement from multiple experts in tabular MDPs based on a rank condition, which is easily verifiable and is shown to be also necessary. We then extend our result to various different scenarios, i.e., we characterize reward identifiability in the case where the reward function can be represented as a linear combination of given features, making it more interpretable, or when we have access to approximate transition matrices. Even when the reward is not identifiable, we provide conditions characterizing when data on multiple experts in a given environment allows to generalize and train an optimal agent in a new environment. Our theoretical results on reward identifiability and generalizability are validated in various numerical experiments.

We consider experiments in dynamical systems where interventions on some experimental units impact other units through a limiting constraint (such as a limited supply of products). Despite outsize practical importance, the best estimators for this'Markovian' interference problem are largely heuristic in nature, and their bias is not well understood.

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over combinatorial space of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) and nonlinear functions. Despite recent progress towards efficient posterior inference over DAGs, existing methods are either limited to variational inference on node permutation matrices for linear causal models, leading to compromised inference accuracy, or continuous relaxation of adjacency matrices constrained by a DAG regularizer, which cannot ensure resulting graphs are DAGs. In this work, we introduce a scalable Bayesian causal discovery framework based on a combination of stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Variational Inference (VI) that overcomes these limitations. Our approach directly samples DAGs from the posterior without requiring any DAG regularization, simultaneously draws function parameter samples and is applicable to both linear and nonlinear causal models. To enable our approach, we derive a novel equivalence to the permutation-based DAG learning, which opens up possibilities of using any relaxed gradient estimator defined over permutations. To our knowledge, this is the first framework applying gradient-based MCMC sampling for causal discovery. Empirical evaluation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate our approach's effectiveness compared to state-of-the-art baselines.