Current approaches for (multi-horizon) time-series forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) focus on issuing point estimates, which are insufficient for informing decision-making in critical application domains wherein uncertainty estimates are also required. Existing methods for uncertainty quantification in RNNbased time-series forecasts are limited as they may require significant alterations to the underlying architecture, may be computationally complex, may be difficult to calibrate, may incur high sample complexity, and may not provide theoretical validity guarantees for the issued uncertainty intervals. In this work, we extend the inductive conformal prediction framework to the time-series forecasting setup, and propose a lightweight uncertainty estimation procedure to address the above limitations. With minimal exchangeability assumptions, our approach provides uncertainty intervals with theoretical guarantees on frequentist coverage for any multi-horizon forecast predictor and any dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal forecasting framework by comparing it with existing baselines on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.

Despite strong performance in numerous applications, the fragility of deep learning to input perturbations has raised serious questions about its use in safety-critical domains. While adversarial training can mitigate this issue in practice, state-ofthe-art methods are increasingly application-dependent, heuristic in nature, and suffer from fundamental trade-offs between nominal performance and robustness. Moreover, the problem of finding worst-case perturbations is non-convex and underparameterized, both of which engender a non-favorable optimization landscape. Thus, there is a gap between the theory and practice of adversarial training, particularly with respect to when and why adversarial training works. In this paper, we take a constrained learning approach to address these questions and to provide a theoretical foundation for robust learning. In particular, we leverage semi-infinite optimization and non-convex duality theory to show that adversarial training is equivalent to a statistical problem over perturbation distributions, which we characterize completely. Notably, we show that a myriad of previous robust training techniques can be recovered for particular, sub-optimal choices of these distributions. Using these insights, we then propose a hybrid Langevin Monte Carlo approach of which several common algorithms (e.g., PGD) are special cases. Finally, we show that our approach can mitigate the trade-off between nominal and robust performance, yielding state-of-the-art results on MNIST and CIFAR-10.

Conventional supervised learning methods, especially deep ones, are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) examples, largely because the learned representation mixes the semantic factor with the variation factor due to their domain-specific correlation, while only the semantic factor causes the output. To address the problem, we propose a Causal Semantic Generative model (CSG) based on a causal reasoning so that the two factors are modeled separately, and develop methods for OOD prediction from a single training domain, which is common and challenging. The methods are based on the causal invariance principle, with a novel design in variational Bayes for both efficient learning and easy prediction. Theoretically, we prove that under certain conditions, CSG can identify the semantic factor by fitting training data, and this semantic-identification guarantees the boundedness of OOD generalization error and the success of adaptation. Empirical study shows improved OOD performance over prevailing baselines.