With a principled representation of uncertainty and closed form posterior updates, Gaussian processes (GPs) are a natural choice for online decision making. However, Gaussian processes typically require at least O(n2) computations for n training points, limiting their general applicability. Stochastic variational Gaussian processes (SVGPs) can provide scalable inference for a dataset of fixed size, but are difficult to efficiently condition on new data. We propose online variational conditioning (OVC), a procedure for efficiently conditioning SVGPs in an online setting that does not require re-training through the evidence lower bound with the addition of new data. OVC enables the pairing of SVGPs with advanced lookahead acquisition functions for black-box optimization, even with non-Gaussian likelihoods. We show OVC provides compelling performance in a range of applications including active learning of malaria incidence, and reinforcement learning on MuJoCo simulated robotic control tasks.

Ace can read the trajectory of a ball, adjust the racket angle, and respond with strokes that keep the exchange alive with real players. Ace has won three out of five games played under official rules. Ace is a robot that aims high: It wants to become the world champion of table tennis . It was developed by Sony AI researchers who, in a new study published in Nature, have shown how this robot, equipped with artificial intelligence, has faced some high-level athletes, holding its own in matches played according to the official rules of table tennis. This feat represents a milestone for the world of robotics, a field that has long regarded this sport, among the most technical in the world, as one of the most difficult tests of technological advances.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have achieved remarkable performance in the task of semi-supervised node classification. However, most existing GNN models require sufficient labeled data for effective network training. Their performance can be seriously degraded when labels are extremely limited. To address this issue, we propose a new framework termed Contrastive Graph Poisson Networks (CGPN) for node classification under extremely limited labeled data. Specifically, our CGPN derives from variational inference; integrates a newly designed Graph Poisson Network (GPN) to effectively propagate the limited labels to the entire graph and a normal GNN, such as Graph Attention Network, that flexibly guides the propagation of GPN; applies a contrastive objective to further exploit the supervision information from the learning process of GPN and GNN models. Essentially, our CGPN can enhance the learning performance of GNNs under extremely limited labels by contrastively propagating the limited labels to the entire graph. We conducted extensive experiments on different types of datasets to demonstrate the superiority of CGPN.

We study fair machine learning (ML) under predictive uncertainty to enable reliable and trustworthy decision-making. The seminal work of "equalized coverage" proposed an uncertainty-aware fairness notion. However, it does not guarantee equal coverage rates across more fine-grained groups (e.g., low-income females) conditioning on the true label and is biased in the assessment of uncertainty. To tackle these limitations, we propose a new uncertainty-aware fairness - Equal Opportunity of Coverage (EOC) - that aims to achieve two properties: (1) coverage rates for different groups with similar outcomes are close, and (2) the coverage rate for the entire population remains at a predetermined level. Further, the prediction intervals should be narrow to be informative. We propose Binned Fair Quantile Regression (BFQR), a distribution-free post-processing method to improve EOC with reasonable width for any trained ML models. It first calibrates a hold-out set to bound deviation from EOC, then leverages conformal prediction to maintain EOC on a test set, meanwhile optimizing prediction interval width. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in improving EOC.

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We consider the problem of quantifying uncertainty for the estimation error of the leading eigenvector from Oja's algorithm for streaming principal component analysis, where the data are generated IID from some unknown distribution. By combining classical tools from the U-statistics literature with recent results on high-dimensional central limit theorems for quadratic forms of random vectors and concentration of matrix products, we establish a weighted χ2 approximation result for the sin2 error between the population eigenvector and the output of Ojas algorithm. Since estimating the covariance matrix associated with the approximating distribution requires knowledge of unknown model parameters, we propose a multiplier bootstrap algorithm that may be updated in an online manner. We establish conditions under which the bootstrap distribution is close to the corresponding sampling distribution with high probability, thereby establishing the bootstrap as a consistent inferential method in an appropriate asymptotic regime.