Uncertainty estimation plays an important role for future reliable deployment of deep segmentation models in safety-critical scenarios such as medical applications. However, existing methods for uncertainty estimation have been limited by the lack of explicit guidance for calibrating the prediction risk and model confidence. In this work, we propose a novel fine-grained reward maximization (FGRM) framework, to address uncertainty estimation by directly utilizing an uncertainty metric related reward function with a reinforcement learning based model tuning algorithm. This would benefit the model uncertainty estimation through direct optimization guidance for model calibration. Specifically, our method designs a new uncertainty estimation reward function using the calibration metric, which is maximized to fine-tune an evidential learning pre-trained segmentation model for calibrating prediction risk.

We consider a Bayesian forecast aggregation model where nexperts, after observing private signals about an unknown binary event, report their posterior beliefs about the event to a principal, who then aggregates the reports into a single prediction for the event. The signals of the experts and the outcome of the event follow a joint distribution that is unknown to the principal, but the principal has access to i.i.d. "samples" from the distribution, where each sample is a tuple of the experts' reports (not signals) and the realization of the event. Using these samples, the principal aims to find an ε-approximately optimal aggregator, where optimality is measured in terms of the expected squared distance between the aggregated prediction and the realization of the event. We show that the sample complexity of this problem is at least Ω(mn 2/ε) for arbitrary discrete distributions, where m is the size of each expert's signal space. This sample complexity grows exponentially in the number of experts n. But, if the experts' signals are independent conditioned on the realization of the event, then the sample complexity is significantly reduced, to O(1/ε2), which does not depend on n. Our results can be generalized to non-binary events. The proof of our results uses a reduction from the distribution learning problem and reveals the fact that forecast aggregation is almost as difficult as distribution learning.

Since the proposal of transformers (Vaswani et al., 2017), these models have been limited to bounded input lengths, because of their need to attend to every token in the input. In this work, we propose Unlimiformer: a general approach that wraps any existing pretrained encoder-decoder transformer, and offloads the cross-attention computation to a single k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) index, while the returned kNN distances are the attention dot-product scores. This kNN index can be kept on either the GPU or CPU memory and queried in sub-linear time; this way, we can index practically unlimited input sequences, while every attention head in every decoder layer retrieves its top-k keys, instead of attending to every key. We evaluate Unlimiformer on several long-document and book-summarization benchmarks, showing that it can process even 500k token-long inputs from the BookSum dataset, without any input truncation at test time. We demonstrate that Unlimiformer improves pretrained models such as BART (Lewis et al., 2020a) and Longformer (Beltagy et al., 2020) by extending them to unlimited inputs without additional learned weights and without modifying their code. Our code and models are publicly available, and support LLaMA-2 as well2.

In sampling-based Bayesian models of brain function, neural activities are assumed to be samples from probability distributions that the brain uses for probabilistic computation. However, a comprehensive understanding of how mechanistic models of neural dynamics can sample from arbitrary distributions is still lacking. We use tools from functional analysis and stochastic differential equations to explore the minimum architectural requirements for recurrent neural circuits to sample from complex distributions. We first consider the traditional sampling model consisting of a network of neurons whose outputs directly represent the samples (sampler-only network). We argue that synaptic current and firing-rate dynamics in the traditional model have limited capacity to sample from a complex probability distribution. We show that the firing rate dynamics of a recurrent neural circuit with a separate set of output units can sample from an arbitrary probability distribution. We call such circuits reservoir-sampler networks (RSNs). We propose an efficient training procedure based on denoising score matching that finds recurrent and output weights such that the RSN implements Langevin sampling. We empirically demonstrate our model's ability to sample from several complex data distributions using the proposed neural dynamics and discuss its applicability to developing the next generation of sampling-based Bayesian brain models.

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OpenAI is racing to catch up to its greatest rival. OpenAI does not like to be left out. The week after Anthropic announced Claude Mythos Preview --an AI model that has put governments around the world on edge because of its potential ability to hack into banks, energy grids, and military systems--OpenAI shared a program that is uncannily similar. And just like Anthropic did with its model, OpenAI has, for cybersecurity purposes, restricted access to this new bot, called GPT-5.4-Cyber, to a small group of trusted users. This sequence has become something of a pattern: First Anthropic will make an announcement, and then OpenAI will follow suit.

Plus: OpenAI has ended its exclusive partnership with Microsoft. Elon Musk and Sam Altman are going to court over OpenAI's future Ahead of OpenAI's IPO, the court could rule on whether the company can exist as a for-profit enterprise. It could even oust its leadership. Musk, an OpenAI co-founder, claims he was deceived into bankrolling the firm under false pretenses. Find out how the trial could upend the global AI race . In a celebrated episode, a community of gnomes sneak out at night to steal underpants.