In this paper, we investigate the supremum-norm generalization error and the uniform inference for a specific class of kernel regression methods, namely the kernel gradient flows. Under the widely adopted capacity-source condition framework in the kernel regression literature, we first establish convergence rates for the supremum norm generalization error of both continuous and discrete kernel gradient flows under the source condition $s>α_0$, where $α_0\in(0,1)$ denotes the embedding index of the kernel function. Moreover, we show that these rates match the minimax optimal rates. Building on this result, we then construct simultaneous confidence bands for both continuous and discrete kernel gradient flows. Notably, the widths of the proposed confidence bands are also optimal, in the sense that their shrinkage rates are greater than, while can be arbitrarily close to, the minimax optimal rates.

Algorithms in machine learning and AI do critically depend on at least three key components: (i) the risk function, which is the expectation of the loss function, (ii) the function space, which is often called the hypothesis space, and (iii) the set of probability measures, which are allowed for the specified algorithm. This paper gives a survey of a certain class of loss functions, which we call ratio-based. In supervised learning, margin-based loss functions for classification tasks depending on the product of the output values $y_i$ and the predictions $f(x_i)$ as well as distance-based loss functions depending on the difference of $y_i$ and $f(x_i)$ for regression are common. Distance-based loss functions are in particular useful, if an additive model assumption seems plausible, i.e. the common signal plus noise assumption. However, in the literature, several loss functions proposed for regression purposes have a multiplicative error structure in mind and pay attention to relative errors, i.e. to the ratio of $y_i$ and $f(x_i)$. In this survey article, we systematically investigate such ratio-based loss functions and propose a few new losses, which may be interesting for future research. We concentrate on investigating general properties of ratio-based loss functions like continuity, Lipschitz-continuity, convexity, and differentiability, because these properties play a central role in most machine learning algorithms. Therefore, we do not focus on some specific machine learning algorithm to derive universal consistency, learning rates, or stability results. Instead, we want to enable future research in this direction.

We propose a framework for determining whether the causal dependence of an outcome $Y$ on a covariate $X$ changes at a given time point, given confounders $\boldsymbol{Z}$. For instance, in financial markets, the effect of a market indicator on asset returns may causally change over time. While many existing measures of association can be used to detect changes in joint and marginal distributions, in the absence of strong assumptions on the data generating process none are suitable for detecting changes in the causal mechanism or in the strength of causal relationship. In this work we approach the problem from a fully non-parametric perspective, and treat the causal mechanism as well as the distribution of the data as unknown. We introduce a quantity based on the integrated difference between kernel mean embeddings of certain conditionals copula, which is provably equal to zero if the causal dependence does not change and strictly positive else. A near-linear time estimator for the quantity is proposed, with rates of convergence explicitly spelled out. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed statistic achieves high accuracy on multiple synthetic and real-world datasets. We additionally show how the proposed statistic can be used for change point detection when the goal is to detect changes in causal dependence occurring at an unknown times.

Artificial-intelligence systems are becoming ubiquitous in society, yet their predictions typically inherit biases with respect to protected attributes such as race, gender, or age. Classical fairness notions, most notably Statistical Parity (SP), demand that predictions be independent of the protected attributes, but are overly restrictive when these attributes influence mediating variables that are considered business necessities. Recent causal formulations relax SP by distinguishing allowed from not-allowed causal paths and by complementing SP with Predictive Parity (PP), requiring the predictor to replicate the legitimate influence of business-necessities. Existing path-based definitions are mainly practical when applied to categorical attributes. This paper introduces a new framework for fairness in structural causal models that is tailored to continuous protected attributes. We formalize SP and PP through path-specific partial derivatives, establish conditions under which these criteria coincide with prior causal definitions, and characterize when a fair predictor, one that satisfies SP along not-allowed paths while achieving PP along allowed paths, exists. Building on this theory, we propose a fair tuning algorithm that either constructs such a predictor or, when not possible, allows for a trade-off between SP and PP. We present experiments on simulated and real data to evaluate our proposal, compare it with previously proposed methods, and show that it performs better when PP is considered.

Existing guarantees for misspecified kernelized bandit optimization pay for misspecification through kernel complexity: in generic offline bounds, the misspecification level $\varepsilon$ is multiplied by $\sqrt{d_\mathrm{eff}}$, where $d_\mathrm{eff}$ is the kernel effective dimension, while in online regret bounds, the corresponding penalty is $\sqrt{γ_n}\,n\varepsilon$, where $γ_n$ is the maximum information gain after $n$ rounds of interaction. In this work, we show that, for a large class of kernels, the misspecification amplification can be reduced to logarithmic or polylogarithmic growth. In the offline setting, we first prove high-probability simple-regret bounds whose misspecification term is governed by a spectral Lebesgue constant. This yields logarithmic amplification for one-dimensional monotone spectra and polylogarithmic amplification for multivariate Fourier-diagonal product kernels. In the online setting, we modify a domain-splitting algorithm and prove a cumulative regret bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt{γ_n n}+n\varepsilon)$ under mild localized eigendecay assumptions, removing the extra $\sqrt{γ_n}$ factor from the misspecification term. The common principle is localization: spectral localization controls the Lebesgue constant of the offline approximation operator, while domain splitting implements the spatial analogue of this mechanism in the online setting, preventing local misspecification errors from being amplified globally.

Instrumental variable (IV) and control function (CF) methods are powerful tools for causal effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounding, yet most existing approaches target only mean effects and/or demand substantial fitting and tuning effort. In this paper, we introduce a simple method, TabCF, for control function regression using tabular foundation models, which enables accurate, fast, identification-transparent, and tuning-light causal estimation of distributional quantities, such as interventional means and quantiles; we also propose a copula-based approximation for multivariate outcomes. TabCF performs favorably against representative methods across a broad range of small- to medium-sized synthetic and real data scenarios. The central message is two-fold: for practitioners, it highlights that TabCF is an effective tool for distributional causal inference; for researchers, it suggests that the proposed approach could be considered a strong baseline for future method development. Code is available at https://github.com/GepingChen/TabCF.

Modern datasets across many disciplines increasingly consist of time-evolving, potentially infinite-dimensional random objects, such as dynamic functional data, which are naturally modeled in Hilbert spaces. In these settings, characterizing probability measures, for example, through densities, can be ill-defined or technically challenging. Motivated by clustering applications, we propose a Gaussian mixture framework for Hilbert-space-valued data based on kernel mean embeddings and develop efficient optimization algorithms for estimation. We establish theoretical guarantees showing that the proposed algorithm is well defined and that the model yields a dense class of approximations in infinite-dimensional spaces. We evaluate the framework through extensive experiments on diverse structures and data geometries, including $L^2$-functional data and random graphs in Laplacian spaces arising in modern medical applications.

Many normalizing flow architectures impose regularity constraints, yet their distributional approximation properties are not fully characterized. We study the expressivity of bi-Lipschitz normalizing flows through the lens of score-based diffusion models. For the probability flow ODE of a variance-preserving diffusion, Lipschitz regularity of the score induces a flow of bi-Lipschitz diffeomorphic transport maps. This ODE bridge allows us to analyze the distributional approximation power of bi-Lipschitz normalizing flows and, conversely, derive deterministic convergence guarantees for diffusion-based transport. Our key idea is to use the probability flow ODE to link regularity of the score to regularity of the induced transport maps. We verify score regularity for broad target densities, including compactly supported densities, Gaussian convolutions of compactly supported measures and finite Gaussian mixtures. We obtain a universal distributional approximation result: Gaussian pullbacks induced by bi-Lipschitz variance-preserving transport maps are $L^1$-dense among all probability densities. For Gaussian convolution targets, we further obtain convergence in Kullback-Leibler divergence without early stopping.

Recent developments in digital platforms have highlighted the prevalence of open systems, where agents can arrive and depart over time. While bandit learning in open systems has recently received initial attention, existing work imposes structural assumptions that are frequently violated in practice. A learning paradigm for general open systems creates fresh challenges: newly arriving agents induce endogenous non-stationarity; agent patterns determine how quickly information accumulates; and new agents make regret scale further with the time horizon. To this end, we formulate a unified open-system bandit problem with general dynamics, including heterogeneous rewards and general agent patterns. We introduce new concepts to capture the inherent complexities: the \emph{pre-training degree} of new agents quantifies how much information an agent carries upon entry, \emph{stability} measures the impact of new agents on the system, and \emph{global dynamic regret} compares the cumulative expected reward of all active agents with that of the varying optimal arms. We develop certified global-UCB learning methodologies with provable guarantees. Our regret bounds reveal that entry uncertainty enters linearly via the pre-training degree, while in stable regimes, regret is governed by the time needed to identify a persistent optimal arm, as well as by the agent patterns. We further show that these dependencies are tight via lower bounds in hard instances.

Trimming suspicious calibration points is a common response to contamination in conformal prediction. Its effect on clean-target coverage, however, is governed by the retained law induced by trimming, not by the contamination level alone. We analyse fixed-threshold trimming as conditioning rather than purification. It replaces the contaminated calibration law with a retained law, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem with an exact finite-sample identity. A componentwise bound on the transfer gap gives a population-level diagnostic. This separates a clean-side covariance cost from a retained-contamination cost, governed by the dirty-to-clean retention ratio. Trimming helps when the anomaly score separates retention probabilities while remaining score-neutral on the clean population. Otherwise, it cannot substantially reduce contamination through the retained mixture coefficient. We also give finite-sample certificate templates that provide numerical guarantees under independent audit.