Discrete automated processes in industrial and cyber-physical systems often exhibit a repetitive structure in which successive repetitions follow a common trajectory while differing in duration, amplitude, and fine-scale dynamics. Such \emph{approximately periodic} behavior poses a challenge for Gaussian Processes (GP) modeling: strictly periodic models suppress inter-repetition variability, while non-periodic models fail to capture the strong structural regularities required for generation. In this work, we propose a stochastic generative model for approximately periodic time series. The model is based on a GP whose posterior is modulated by a novel kernel. Our approach decouples intra-repetition structure from inter-repetition variability through a two-stage construction which yields a generative distribution with a identical mean function across repetitions, while allowing smooth variation between repetitions. The modeling choices are supported by an implementation in which realistic synthetic trajectories are generated from toy datasets.

Modern Bayesian optimization and adaptive sampling methods increasingly rely on nonlinear parametric models, yet theoretical guarantees for such models under adaptive data collection remain limited. Existing analyses largely focus on Gaussian processes, kernel machines, linear models, or linearized neural approximations, leaving a gap between theory and the nonlinear models used in practice. We develop a kernel-based framework for analyzing regularized nonlinear parametric models trained on adaptively collected data. Our approach uses kernels over the parameter space to induce reproducing-kernel Hilbert space structures over the corresponding model class, yielding confidence bounds for models trained with broad classes of regularized convex losses. We show how these bounds can support convergence guarantees for nonlinear acquisition and surrogate models, including randomized regularized policies that select points by maximizing a trained random model. These results provide a unified route to analyzing nonlinear parametric models in Bayesian optimization and related adaptive optimization settings.

A likelihood-free transport filtering method is proposed based on the couplings between state and observation variables. By exploiting a block-triangular structure in the transport map, the analysis step of filtering is reformulated as the minimization of the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between the true joint measure and its transport-based approximation. To circumvent the non-convexity in the MMD optimization, we introduce a training-free transport filter method via gradient flows, which leads to an analytic computation for the transport map that implies the steepest descent direction of the MMD. The proposed approach accurately approximates non-Gaussian filtering posteriors and avoids particle collapse. We provide a convergence analysis for the expectation of the MMD between the approximated posterior and the truth posterior. Finally, we extend the method to high-dimensional problems through domain localization. Numerical examples demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over conventional filtering methods in nonlinear, non-Gaussian scenarios.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in settings where the available context is incomplete or degraded. We argue that an LLM generating answers under incomplete context can be viewed as an implicit imputer, and evaluated against a criterion from the multiple imputation (MI) literature: uncertainty should scale with the amount of missing information. We assess this criterion on SQuAD, using a controlled framework in which context availability is varied across five levels. We evaluate two answer-level uncertainty measures that can be estimated from repeated sampling: sampling-based confidence (empirical mode frequency) and response entropy. Confidence fails to reflect increasing missingness: it remains high even as accuracy collapses. Entropy, by contrast, increases with context removal, consistent with the MI analogy, and explains substantially more variance in accuracy than confidence across all evidence levels (quadratic $R^2$ gap up to 0.057). We further introduce a black-box diagnostic $ρ_R(α)$ that estimates the proportion of baseline uncertainty resolved by context level $α$, requiring only repeated sampling with and without context. These results suggest that entropy is a more responsive black-box uncertainty measure than confidence under incomplete context.

We study multiple change point localization under bandit feedback. An unknown piecewise-constant function on a compact interval can be queried sequentially at adaptively chosen inputs, and each query returns a noisy evaluation of the function. The goal is to identify a prescribed number of discontinuities, known as change points, within a target precision $η$ and confidence level $1-δ$, while using as few samples as possible. We propose an adaptive algorithm that first detects intervals likely to contain change points and then refines their locations to precision $η$. We establish non-asymptotic upper bounds on its sample budget, together with corresponding lower bounds. Prior work shows that jump magnitudes alone determine the asymptotic sample complexity as $δ\to 0$. We reveal that this picture is incomplete beyond this regime. We demonstrate, both empirically and theoretically, that for general $δ$ and $η$, the complexity is jointly governed by the jumps and the relative positions of the change points.

Training large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-5 and Qwen-3 (Singh et al., 2025; Yang et al., 2025) on massive text corpora aims at capturing the underlying distribution of natural language. Yet, it remains challenging for the trained model to extrapolate to out-of-distribution or out-of-domain settings beyond the support of its training data. The literature has seen the development of various data perturbation techniques, such as synonym replacement, random insertion, deletion, and swap, that modify training instances into semantically similar variants to effectively expose LLMs to a broader range of inputs and improve their ability to generalize beyond the training data (Feng et al., 2019, 2020; Li et al., 2024; Cen et al., 2026). However, their approach remains grounded in the discrete, word-level augmentation procedures mentioned previously, which may restrict its adaptivity across diverse domains. While discrete perturbations are simple to use, they could be too coarse and hard to refine due to the complexity of natural language (Park et al., 2022; Li et al., 2023). Meanwhile, fixed perturbations apply the same transformations to the data regardless of the contexts, thus failing to generalize appropriately (Ismailov and Asanova, 2025).

Causal discovery, the problem of inferring the direction of causality, is generally ill-posed. We use the language of structural causal models (SCM) to show that assuming that the causal relations are acyclic and invariant across multiple environments (e.g., the way minimum wage affects employment rate is stable across different geographical regions), \textit{only} two auxiliary environments are sufficient to infer the causal graph for arbitrary nonlinear mechanisms. Moreover, we demonstrate that this implies identifiability of the SCM functional mechanisms: as a corollary, we show that \textit{two} auxiliary environments are sufficient to guarantee correct counterfactual inference. We empirically support our theoretical results on synthetic data.

Understanding how deep neural networks learn useful internal representations from data remains a central open problem in the theory of deep learning. We introduce Neural Low-Degree Filtering (Neural LoFi), a stylized limit of gradient-based training in which hierarchical feature learning becomes an explicit iterative spectral procedure. In this limit, the dynamics at each layer decouple: given the current representation, the next layer selects directions with maximal accessible low-degree correlation to the label. This yields a tractable surrogate mechanism for deep learning, together with a natural kernel-space interpretation. Neural LoFi provides a mathematically explicit framework for studying multi-layer feature learning beyond the lazy regime. It predicts how representations are selected layer by layer, explains how emergence of concepts arises with given sample complexity,and gives a concrete mechanism by which depth progressively constructs new features from old ones through low-degree compositionality. We complement the theory with mechanistic experiments on fully connected and convolutional architectures, showing that Neural LoFi improves over lazy random-feature baselines, recovers meaningful structured filters, and predicts representations aligned with early gradient-descent feature discovery with real datasets.

In this paper, we establish last-iterate convergence rates for off-policy actor--critic methods in reinforcement learning. In particular, under a single-loop, single-timescale implementation and a broad class of policy updates, including approximate policy iteration and natural policy gradient methods, we prove the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2})$ sample complexity guarantee for finding an $ε$-optimal policy under minimal assumptions, namely, the existence of a policy that induces an irreducible Markov chain. This stands in stark contrast to the existing literature, where an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-2})$ sample complexity is achieved only through nested-loop updates and/or under strong, algorithm-dependent assumptions on the policies, such as uniform mixing and uniform exploration. Technically, to address the challenges posed by the coupled update equations arising from the single-loop implementation, as well as the potentially unbounded iterates induced by off-policy learning, our analysis is based on a coupled Lyapunov drift framework. Specifically, we establish a geometric convergence rate for the actor and an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/T)$ convergence rate for the critic, and combine the two Lyapunov drift inequalities through a cross-domination property. We believe this analytical framework is of independent interest and may be applicable to other coupled iterative algorithms with unbounded

Flow Language Models (FLMs) are a recently introduced class of language models which adapt continuous flow matching for one-hot encoded token sequences. Their denoisers have a special structure absent from generic continuous diffusion models: each block of the denoising mean is a posterior marginal distribution over the clean token at that position. Standard DDPM-style samplers collapse these marginals to a single conditional-mean endpoint and bridge toward this simplex-valued point, which is generally not a valid one-hot sequence. We argue that the natural sampler for an FLM is instead posterior-predictive. At each reverse step, we sample a clean one-hot endpoint from the factorized posterior defined by the FLM token marginals, and then sample the next continuous state from the analytic Ornstein--Uhlenbeck bridge conditioned on that endpoint. The method is training-free, uses the same model evaluations as standard sampling, and gives a principled interface for token-level decoding controls such as temperature scaling and nucleus truncation. We show that, under exact posterior marginals, the endpoint approximation error is exactly the conditional multi-information among token positions. The induced one-step bridge kernel preserves all token-wise posterior-predictive marginals and loses only the residual cross-position dependence. Finally, we prove a Girsanov path-space comparison showing that the marginal-conditioned bridge has a no-larger denoising-error term than the frozen conditional-mean bridge, with strict improvement whenever intermediate coordinate-wise bridge observations reveal additional information about the clean token. Experiments with FLMs show that the sampler improves the quality--diversity tradeoff. Code is available at: github.com/imbirik/mcb.