The TNM staging system has been used since the early 1960's to predict breast cancer patient outcome. In an attempt to increase prognostic accuracy, many putative prognostic factors have been identified. Because the TNM stage model can not accommodate these new factors, the proliferation of factors in breast cancer has lead to clinical confusion. What is required is a new computerized prognostic system that can test putative prognostic factors and integrate the predictive factors with the TNM variables in order to increase prognostic accuracy. Using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic, we compare the accuracy of the following predictive models in terms of five year breast cancer-specific survival: pTNM staging system, principal component analysis, classification and regression trees, logistic regression, cascade correlation neural network, conjugate gradient descent neural, probabilistic neural network, and backpropagation neural network. Several statistical models are significantly more ac- 1064 Harry B. Burke, David B. Rosen, Philip H. Goodman

The past few years have produced a number of efforts to design VLSI chips which "learn from experience." The first step toward this goal is developing a silicon analog for a synapse. We have successfully developed such a synapse using only 818 Paul Hasler, Chris Diorio, Bradley A. Minch, Carver Mead

Visualizing and structuring pairwise dissimilarity data are difficult combinatorial optimization problems known as multidimensional scaling or pairwise data clustering. Algorithms for embedding dissimilarity data set in a Euclidian space, for clustering these data and for actively selecting data to support the clustering process are discussed in the maximum entropy framework. Active data selection provides a strategy to discover structure in a data set efficiently with partially unknown data. 1 Introduction Grouping experimental data into compact clusters arises as a data analysis problem in psychology, linguistics, genetics and other experimental sciences. The data which are supposed to be clustered are either given by an explicit coordinate representation (central clustering) or, in the non-metric case, they are characterized by dissimilarity values for pairs of data points (pairwise clustering). In this paper we study algorithms (i) for embedding non-metric data in a D-dimensional Euclidian space, (ii) for simultaneous clustering and embedding of non-metric data, and (iii) for active data selection to determine a particular cluster structure with minimal number of data queries. All algorithms are derived from the maximum entropy principle (Hertz et al., 1991) which guarantees robust statistics (Tikochinsky et al., 1984).

It is well known that a combination of many different predictors can improve predictions. In the neural networks community "ensembles" of neural networks has been investigated by several authors, see for instance [1, 2, 3]. Most often the networks in the ensemble are trained individually and then their predictions are combined. This combination is usually done by majority (in classification) or by simple averaging (in regression), but one can also use a weighted combination of the networks.

This system combines a robust input representation, which preserves the dynamic writing information, with a neural network architecture, a so called Multi-State Time Delay Neural Network (MS-TDNN), which integrates rec.ognition and segmentation in a single framework. Our preprocessing transforms the original coordinate sequence into a (still temporal) sequence offeature vectors, which combine strictly local features, like curvature or writing direction, with a bitmap-like representation of the coordinate's proximity. The MS-TDNN architecture is well suited for handling temporal sequences as provided by this input representation. Our system is tested both on writer dependent and writer independent tasks with vocabulary sizes ranging from 400 up to 20,000 words. For example, on a 20,000 word vocabulary we achieve word recognition rates up to 88.9% (writer dependent) and 84.1 % (writer independent) without using any language models.

I} when the probability distribution that generates the input examples is member of a family that we call k-blocking distributions. Such distributions represent an important step beyond the case where each input variable is statistically independent since the 2k-blocking family contains all the Markov distributions of order k. By stochastic percept ron we mean a perceptron which, upon presentation of input vector x, outputs 1 with probability fCLJi WiXi - B).

Perceptual learning is defined as fast improvement in performance and retention of the learned ability over a period of time. In a set of psychophysical experiments we demonstrated that perceptual learning occurs for the discrimination of direction in stochastic motion stimuli. Here we model this learning using two approaches: a clustering model that learns to accommodate the motion noise, and an averaging model that learns to ignore the noise. Simulations of the models show performance similar to the psychophysical results. 1 Introduction Global motion perception is critical to many visual tasks: to perceive self-motion, to identify objects in motion, to determine the structure of the environment, and to make judgements for safe navigation. In the presence of noise, as in random dot kinematograms, efficient extraction of global motion involves considerable spatial integration. Newsome and Colleagues (1989) showed that neurons in the macaque middle temporal area (MT) are motion direction-selective, and perform global integration of motion in their large receptive fields. Psychophysical studies in humans have characterized the limits of spatial and temporal integration in motion (Watamaniuk et.

Many different discrete-time recurrent neural network architectures have been proposed. However, there has been virtually no effort to compare these arch:tectures experimentally. In this paper we review and categorize many of these architectures and compare how they perform on various classes of simple problems including grammatical inference and nonlinear system identification.

We present a deterministic annealing variant of the EM algorithm for maximum likelihood parameter estimation problems. In our approach, the EM process is reformulated as the problem of minimizing the thermodynamic free energy by using the principle of maximum entropy and statistical mechanics analogy. Unlike simulated annealing approaches, this minimization is deterministically performed. Moreover, the derived algorithm, unlike the conventional EM algorithm, can obtain better estimates free of the initial parameter values.

Reinforcement learning addresses the problem of learning to select actions in order to maximize one's performance in unknown environments. To scale reinforcement learning to complex real-world tasks, such as typically studied in AI, one must ultimately be able to discover the structure in the world, in order to abstract away the myriad of details and to operate in more tractable problem spaces. This paper presents the SKILLS algorithm. SKILLS discovers skills, which are partially defined action policies that arise in the context of multiple, related tasks.