Networks of this type have a single layer of units with a selective response for some range of the input variables. Earn unit has an overall response function, possibly a Gaussian: D_("')

We are concerned in this paper with the application of multiple models, specifically the Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts, to time series prediction, specifically the problem of predicting acoustic vectors for use in speech coding. There have been a number of applications of multiple models in time series prediction. A classic example is the Threshold Autoregressive model (TAR) which was used by Tong & 836 S. R. Waterhouse, A. J. Robinson Lim (1980) to predict sunspot activity. More recently, Lewis, Kay and Stevens (in Weigend & Gershenfeld (1994)) describe the use of Multivariate and Regression Splines (MARS) to the prediction of future values of currency exchange rates. Finally, in speech prediction, Cuperman & Gersho (1985) describe the Switched Inter-frame Vector Prediction (SIVP) method which switches between separate linear predictors trained on different statistical classes of speech.

We propose an alternative model for mixtures of experts which uses a different parametric form for the gating network. The modified model is trained by the EM algorithm. In comparison with earlier models-trained by either EM or gradient ascent-there is no need to select a learning stepsize. We report simulation experiments which show that the new architecture yields faster convergence. We also apply the new model to two problem domains: piecewise nonlinear function approximation and the combination of multiple previously trained classifiers. 1 INTRODUCTION For the mixtures of experts architecture (Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan & Hinton, 1991), the EM algorithm decouples the learning process in a manner that fits well with the modular structure and yields a considerably improved rate of convergence (Jordan & Jacobs, 1994).

We first rederive the known results for the'thermodynamic limit' of infinite perceptron size N and show explicitly that 9

Statistical models of discrete time series have a wide range of applications, most notably to problems in speech recognition (Juang & Rabiner, 1991) and molecular biology (Baldi, Chauvin, Hunkapiller, & McClure, 1992). A common problem in these fields is to find a probabilistic model, and a set of model parameters, that 436 Lawrence K. Saul, Michael I. Jordan

Many real world learning problems are best characterized by an interaction of multiple independent causes or factors. Discovering such causal structure from the data is the focus of this paper. Based on Zemel and Hinton's cooperative vector quantizer (CVQ) architecture, an unsupervised learning algorithm is derived from the Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework. Due to the combinatorial nature of the data generation process, the exact E-step is computationally intractable. Two alternative methods for computing the E-step are proposed: Gibbs sampling and mean-field approximation, and some promising empirical results are presented.

The problem of interpolating between specified images in an image sequence is a simple, but important task in model-based vision. We describe an approach based on the abstract task of "manifold learning" and present results on both synthetic and real image sequences. This problem arose in the development of a combined lipreading and speech recognition system.

Many applications of neural networks can be formulated in terms of a multivariate nonlinear mapping from an input vector x to a target vector t. A conventional neural network approach, based on least squares for example, leads to a network mapping which approximates the regression of t on x. A more complete description of the data can be obtained by estimating the conditional probability density of t, conditioned on x, which we write as p(tlx). Various techniques exist for modelling such densities when the target variables live in a Euclidean space. However, a number of potential applications involve angle-like output variables which are periodic on some finite interval (usually chosen to be (0,271")).

Experiments were performed to reveal some of the computational properties of the human motor memory system. We show that as humans practice reaching movements while interacting with a novel mechanical environment, they learn an internal model of the inverse dynamics of that environment. The representation of the internal model in memory is such that there is interference when there is an attempt to learn a new inverse dynamics map immediately after an anticorrelated mapping was learned. We suggest that this interference is an indication that the same computational elements used to encode the first inverse dynamics map are being used to learn the second mapping. We predict that this leads to a forgetting of the initially learned skill. 1 Introduction In tasks where we use our hands to interact with a tool, our motor system develops a model of the dynamics of that tool and uses this model to control the coupled dynamics of our arm and the tool (Shadmehr and Mussa-Ivaldi 1994). In physical systems theory, the tool is a mechanical analogue of an admittance, mapping a force as input onto a change in state as output (Hogan 1985).

We describe an analog VLSI implementation of the ARTI algorithm (Carpenter, 1987).