When combining a set of learned models to form an improved estimator, theissue of redundancy or multicollinearity in the set of models must be addressed. A progression of existing approaches and their limitations with respect to the redundancy is discussed. A new approach, PCR*, based on principal components regression isproposed to address these limitations. An evaluation of the new approach on a collection of domains reveals that: 1) PCR* was the most robust combination method as the redundancy of the learned models increased, 2) redundancy could be handled without eliminating any of the learned models, and 3) the principal components ofthe learned models provided a continuum of "regularized" weights from which PCR* could choose.

We show how judicious normalization of a time-frequency signal allows an elegant and robust implementation of a correlation algorithm. The algorithm uses binary multiplexing instead of analog-analog multiplication. This removes the need for analog storage and analog-multiplication. Simulations show that the resulting algorithm has the same out-of-sample classification performance (-93% correct) as a baseline template-matching algorithm.

We study a mistake-driven variant of an online Bayesian learning algorithm(similar to one studied by Cesa-Bianchi, Helmbold, and Panizza [CHP96]). This variant only updates its state (learns) on trials in which it makes a mistake. The algorithm makes binary classifications using a linear-threshold classifier and runs in time linear inthe number of attributes seen by the learner. We have been able to show, theoretically and in simulations, that this algorithm performs well under assumptions quite different from those embodied inthe prior of the original Bayesian algorithm. It can handle situations that we do not know how to handle in linear time with Bayesian algorithms. We expect our techniques to be useful in deriving and analyzing other apobayesian algorithms. 1 Introduction We consider two styles of online learning.

We study a time series model that can be viewed as a decision tree with Markov temporal structure. The model is intractable for exact calculations, thus we utilize variational approximations. We consider three different distributions for the approximation: one in which the Markov calculations are performed exactly and the layers of the decision tree are decoupled, one in which the decision tree calculations are performed exactly and the time steps of the Markov chain are decoupled, and one in which a Viterbi-like assumption is made to pick out a single most likely state sequence.

SaM can be said to do clustering/vector quantization (VQ) and at the same time to preserve the spatial ordering of the input data reflected by an ordering of the code book vectors (cluster centroids) in a one or two dimensional output space, where the latter property is closely related to multidimensional scaling (MDS) in statistics. Although the level of activity and research around the SaM algorithm is quite large (a recent overview by [Kohonen 95] contains more than 1000 citations), only little comparison among the numerous existing variants of the basic approach and also to more traditional statistical techniques of the larger frameworks of VQ and MDS is available. Additionally, thereis only little advice in the literature about how to properly use 446 A.Flexer SOM in order to get optimal results in terms of either vector quantization (VQ) or multidimensional scaling or maybe even both of them. To make the notion of SOM being a tool for "data visualization" more precise, the following question has to be answered: Should SOM be used for doing VQ, MDS, both at the same time or none of them? Two recent comprehensive studies comparing SOM either to traditional VQ or MDS techniques separately seem to indicate that SOM is not competitive when used for either VQ or MDS: [Balakrishnan et al. 94J compare SOM to K-means clustering on 108 multivariate normal clustering problems with known clustering solutions and show that SOM performs significantly worse in terms of data points misclassified

Closed-loop control relies on sensory feedback that is usually assumed tobe free . But if sensing incurs a cost, it may be costeffective totake sequences of actions in open-loop mode. We describe a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns to combine open-loop and closed-loop control when sensing incurs a cost. Although weassume reliable sensors, use of open-loop control means that actions must sometimes be taken when the current state of the controlled system is uncertain. This is a special case of the hidden-state problem in reinforcement learning, and to cope, our algorithm relies on short-term memory.

A classifier is called consistent with respect to a given set of classlabeled pointsif it correctly classifies the set. We consider classifiers defined by unions of local separators and propose algorithms for consistent classifier reduction. The expected complexities of the proposed algorithms are derived along with the expected classifier sizes. In particular, the proposed approach yields a consistent reduction ofthe nearest neighbor classifier, which performs "firm" classification, assigning each new object to a class, regardless of the data structure. The proposed reduction method suggests a notion of "soft" classification, allowing for indecision with respect to objects which are insufficiently or ambiguously supported by the data. The performances of the proposed classifiers in predicting stockbehavior are compared to that achieved by the nearest neighbor method. 1 Introduction Certain classification problems, such as recognizing the digits of a hand written zipcode, requirethe assignment of each object to a class. Others, involving relatively small amounts of data and high risk, call for indecision until more data become available. Examples in such areas as medical diagnosis, stock trading and radar detection are well known. The training data for the classifier in both cases will correspond to firmly labeled members of the competing classes.

We present a connectionist method for representing images that explicitly addressestheir hierarchical nature. It blends data from neuroscience aboutwhole-object viewpoint sensitive cells in inferotemporal cortex8 and attentional basis-field modulation in V43 with ideas about hierarchical descriptions based on microfeatures.5,11 The resulting model makes critical use of bottom-up and top-down pathways for analysis and synthesis.

A biologically motivated model of cortical self-organization is proposed. Contextis combined with bottom-up information via a maximum likelihood cost function. Clusters of one or more units are modulated by a common contextual gating Signal; they thereby organize themselves into mutually supportive predictors of abstract contextual features. The model was tested in its ability to discover viewpoint-invariant classes on a set of real image sequences of centered, graduallyrotating faces. It performed considerably better than supervised back-propagation at generalizing to novel views from a small number of training examples.

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constantvariance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming thebias of maximum likelihood. 1 Introduction In regression problems it is important not only to predict the output variables but also to have some estimate of the error bars associated with those predictions.