We present new results about the temporal-difference learning algorithm, as applied to approximating the cost-to-go function of a Markov chain using linear function approximators. The algorithm we analyze performs online updating of a parameter vector during a single endless trajectory of an aperiodic irreducible finite state Markov chain. Results include convergence (with probability 1), a characterization of the limit of convergence, and a bound on the resulting approximation error. In addition to establishing new and stronger results than those previously available, our analysis is based on a new line of reasoning that provides new intuition about the dynamics of temporal-difference learning. Furthermore, we discuss the implications of two counterexamples with regards to the Significance of online updating and linearly parameterized function approximators. 1 INTRODUCTION The problem of predicting the expected long-term future cost (or reward) of a stochastic dynamic system manifests itself in both time-series prediction and control.

We propose a novel approach to automatically growing and pruning Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts. The constructive algorithm proposed here enables large hierarchies consisting of several hundred experts to be trained effectively. We show that HME's trained by our automatic growing procedure yield better generalization performance than traditional static and balanced hierarchies. Evaluation of the algorithm is performed (1) on vowel classification and (2) within a hybrid version of the JANUS r9] speech recognition system using a subset of the Switchboard large-vocabulary speaker-independent continuous speech recognition database.

In the present paper, we propose a method to unify information maximization and minimization in hidden units. The information maximization and minimization are performed on two different levels: collective and individual level. Thus, two kinds of information: collective and individual information are defined. By maximizing collective information and by minimizing individual information, simple networks can be generated in terms of the number of connections and the number of hidden units. Obtained networks are expected to give better generalization and improved interpretation of internal representations.

In this paper we apply the method of complexity regularization to derive estimation bounds for nonlinear function estimation using a single hidden layer radial basis function network.

In cellular telephone systems, an important problem is to dynamically allocate the communication resource (channels) so as to maximize service in a stochastic caller environment. This problem is naturally formulated as a dynamic programming problem and we use a reinforcement learning (RL) method to find dynamic channel allocation policies that are better than previous heuristic solutions. The policies obtained perform well for a broad variety of call traffic patterns.

A new reinforcement learning architecture for nonlinear control is proposed. A direct feedback controller, or the actor, is trained by a value-gradient based controller, or the tutor. This architecture enables both efficient use of the value function and simple computation for real-time implementation. Good performance was verified in multidimensional nonlinear control tasks using Gaussian softmax networks.

Artificial Neural Networks can be used to predict future returns of stocks in order to take financial decisions. Should one build a separate network for each stock or share the same network for all the stocks? In this paper we also explore other alternatives, in which some layers are shared and others are not shared. When the prediction of future returns for different stocks are viewed as different tasks, sharing some parameters across stocks is a form of multi-task learning. In a series of experiments with Canadian stocks, we obtain yearly returns that are more than 14% above various benchmarks.

The essential property of BBNs is summarized by the Markov condition, which asserts that each variable is independent of its non-descendants given its parents.

In the Bayes approach to statistical inference [Berger, 1985] one assumes that the prior uncertainty about parameters of an unknown data generating mechanism can be encoded in a probability distribution, the so called prior. Using the prior and the likelihood of the data given the parameters, the posterior distribution of the parameters can be derived from Bayes rule. From this posterior, various estimates for functions ofthe parameter, like predictions about unseen data, can be calculated. However, in general, those predictions cannot be realised by specific parameter values, but only by an ensemble average over parameters according to the posterior probability. Hence, exact implementations of Bayes method for neural networks require averages over network parameters which in general can be performed by time consuming 226 M. Opper and O. Winther Monte Carlo procedures.

We report progress towards our long-term goal of developing low-cost, low-power, lowcomplexity analog-VLSI processors for real-time applications. We propose a neuromorphic architecture for acoustic processing in analog VLSI. The characteristics of the architecture are explored by using simulations and real-world acoustic transients. We use acoustic transients in our experiments because information in the form of acoustic transients pervades the natural world. Insects, birds, and mammals (especially marine mammals) all employ acoustic signals with rich transient structure.