This paper shows how the prices of option contracts traded in financial markets can be tracked sequentially by means of the Extended Kalman Filter algorithm. I consider call and put option pairs with identical strike price and time of maturity as a two output nonlinear system. The Black-Scholes approach popular in Finance literature and the Radial Basis Functions neural network are used in modelling the nonlinear system generating these observations. I show how both these systems may be identified recursively using the EKF algorithm. I present results of simulations on some FTSE 100 Index options data and discuss the implications of viewing the pricing problem in this sequential manner. 1 INTRODUCTION Data from the financial markets has recently been of much interest to the neural computing community. The complexity of the underlying macroeconomic system and how traders react to the flow of information leads to highly nonlinear relationships between observations.

In this paper we propose a model for the lateral connectivity of orientation-selective cells in the visual cortex based on informationtheoretic considerations. We study the properties of the input signal to the visual cortex and find new statistical structures which have not been processed in the retino-geniculate pathway. Applying the idea that the system optimizes the representation of incoming signals, we derive the lateral connectivity that will achieve this for a set of local orientation-selective patches, as well as the complete spatial structure of a layer of such patches. We compare the results with various physiological measurements.

The mortality related to cervical cancer can be substantially reduced through early detection and treatment. However, current detection techniques, such as Pap smear and colposcopy, fail to achieve a concurrently high sensitivity and specificity. In vivo fluorescence spectroscopy is a technique which quickly, noninvasively and quantitatively probes the biochemical and morphological changes that occur in precancerous tissue. RBF ensemble algorithms based on such spectra provide automated, and near realtime implementation of pre-cancer detection in the hands of nonexperts. The results are more reliable, direct and accurate than those achieved by either human experts or multivariate statistical algorithms. 1 Introduction Cervical carcinoma is the second most common cancer in women worldwide, exceeded only by breast cancer (Ramanujam et al., 1996). The mortality related to cervical cancer can be reduced if this disease is detected at the precancerous state, known as squamous intraepitheliallesion (SIL). Currently, a Pap smear is used to 982 K. Turner, N. Ramanujam, R. Richards-Kortum and J. Ghosh screen for cervical cancer {Kurman et al., 1994}. In a Pap test, a large number of cells obtained by scraping the cervical epithelium are smeared onto a slide which is then fixed and stained for cytologic examination.

In most treatments of the regression problem it is assumed that the distribution of target data can be described by a deterministic function of the inputs, together with additive Gaussian noise having constant variance. The use of maximum likelihood to train such models then corresponds to the minimization of a sum-of-squares error function. In many applications a more realistic model would allow the noise variance itself to depend on the input variables. However, the use of maximum likelihood to train such models would give highly biased results. In this paper we show how a Bayesian treatment can allow for an input-dependent variance while overcoming the bias of maximum likelihood.

There are many approaches to this problem, including statistical [9], machine learning [7], integer and mathematical programming [18,1]. In this paper we concentrate on a simple concave minimization formulation of the problem that leads to a finite and fast algorithm.

When combining a set of learned models to form an improved estimator, the issue of redundancy or multicollinearity in the set of models must be addressed. A progression of existing approaches and their limitations with respect to the redundancy is discussed. A new approach, PCR *, based on principal components regression is proposed to address these limitations. An evaluation of the new approach on a collection of domains reveals that: 1) PCR* was the most robust combination method as the redundancy of the learned models increased, 2) redundancy could be handled without eliminating any of the learned models, and 3) the principal components of the learned models provided a continuum of "regularized" weights from which PCR * could choose.

The classes in classification tasks often have a natural ordering, and the training and testing examples are often incomplete. We propose a nonlinear ordinal model for classification into ordered classes. Predictive, simulation-based approaches are used to learn from past and classify future incomplete examples. These techniques are illustrated by making prognoses for patients who have suffered severe head injuries.

We study the effect of noise and regularization in an online gradient-descent learning scenario for a general two-layer student network with an arbitrary number of hidden units. Training examples are randomly drawn input vectors labeled by a two-layer teacher network with an arbitrary number of hidden units; the examples are corrupted by Gaussian noise affecting either the output or the model itself. We examine the effect of both types of noise and that of weight-decay regularization on the dynamical evolution of the order parameters and the generalization error in various phases of the learning process.

The following investigates the use of single-neuron learning algorithms to improve the performance of text-retrieval systems that accept natural-language queries. A retrieval process is explained that transforms the natural-language query into the query syntax of a real retrieval system: the initial query is expanded using statistical and learning techniques and is then used for document ranking and binary classification. The results of experiments suggest that Kivinen and Warmuth's Exponentiated Gradient Descent learning algorithm works significantly better than previous approaches. 1 Introduction The following work explores two learning algorithms - Least Mean Squared (LMS) [1] and Exponentiated Gradient Descent (EG) [2] - in the context of text-based Information Retrieval (IR) systems. The experiments presented in [3] use connectionist learning models to improve the retrieval of relevant documents from a large collection of text. Previous work in the area employs various techniques for improving retrieval [6, 7, 14].

This paper discusses a probabilistic model-based approach to clustering sequences, using hidden Markov models (HMMs). The problem can be framed as a generalization of the standard mixture model approach to clustering in feature space. Two primary issues are addressed. First, a novel parameter initialization procedure is proposed, and second, the more difficult problem of determining the number of clusters K, from the data, is investigated. Experimental results indicate that the proposed techniques are useful for revealing hidden cluster structure in data sets of sequences.