Recently, there has been a vigorous debate concerning the nature of neural coding (Rieke et al. 1996; Stevens and Zador 1995; Shadlen and Newsome 1994). The prevailing view has been that the mean firing rate conveys all information about the sensory stimulus in a spike train and the precise timing of the individual spikes is noise. This belief is, in part, based on a lack of correlation between the precise timing of the spikes and the sensory qualities of the stimulus under study, particularly, on a lack of spike timing repeatability when identical stimulation is delivered. This view has been challenged by a number of recent studies, in which highly repeatable temporal patterns of spikes can be observed both in vivo (Bair and Koch 1996; Abeles et al. 1993) and in vitro (Mainen and Sejnowski 1994). Furthermore, application of information theory to the coding problem in the frog and house fly (Bialek et al. 1991; Bialek and Rieke 1992) suggested that additional information could be extracted from spike timing. In the absence of direct evidence for a timing code in the cerebral cortex, the role of spike timing in neural coding remains controversial.

Although TD-Gammon is one of the major successes in machine learning, it has not led to similar impressive breakthroughs in temporal difference learning for other applications or even other games. We were able to replicate some of the success of TD-Gammon, developing a competitive evaluation function on a 4000 parameter feed-forward neural network, without using back-propagation, reinforcement or temporal difference learning methods. Instead we apply simple hill-climbing in a relative fitness environment. These results and further analysis suggest that the surprising success of Tesauro's program had more to do with the co-evolutionary structure of the learning task and the dynamics of the backgammon game itself. 1 INTRODUCTION It took great chutzpah for Gerald Tesauro to start wasting computer cycles on temporal difference learning in the game of Backgammon (Tesauro, 1992). After all, the dream of computers mastering a domain by self-play or "introspection" had been around since the early days of AI, forming part of Samuel's checker player (Samuel, 1959) and used in Donald Michie's MENACE tictac-toe learner (Michie, 1961).

We study a time series model that can be viewed as a decision tree with Markov temporal structure. The model is intractable for exact calculations, thus we utilize variational approximations. We consider three different distributions for the approximation: one in which the Markov calculations are performed exactly and the layers of the decision tree are decoupled, one in which the decision tree calculations are performed exactly and the time steps of the Markov chain are decoupled, and one in which a Viterbi-like assumption is made to pick out a single most likely state sequence.

We compare different methods to combine predictions from neural networks trained on different bootstrap samples of a regression problem. One of these methods, introduced in [6] and which we here call balancing, is based on the analysis of the ensemble generalization error into an ambiguity term and a term incorporating generalization performances of individual networks. We show how to estimate these individual errors from the residuals on validation patterns. Weighting factors for the different networks follow from a quadratic programming problem. On a real-world problem concerning the prediction of sales figures and on the well-known Boston housing data set, balancing clearly outperforms other recently proposed alternatives as bagging [1] and bumping [8]. 1 EARLY STOPPING AND BOOTSTRAPPING Stopped training is a popular strategy to prevent overfitting in neural networks.

Prediction, estimation, and smoothing are fundamental to signal processing. To perform these interrelated tasks given noisy data, we form a time series model of the process that generates the data. Taking noise in the system explicitly into account, maximumlikelihood and Kalman frameworks are discussed which involve the dual process of estimating both the model parameters and the underlying state of the system. We review several established methods in the linear case, and propose severa!

This paper compares three penalty terms with respect to the efficiency of supervised learning, by using first-and second-order learning algorithms. Our experiments showed that for a reasonably adequate penalty factor, the combination of the squared penalty term and the second-order learning algorithm drastically improves the convergence performance more than 20 times over the other combinations, at the same time bringing about a better generalization performance.

It is shown that conventional computers can be exponentiallx faster than planar Hopfield networks: although there are planar Hopfield networks that take exponential time to converge, a stable state of an arbitrary planar Hopfield network can be found by a conventional computer in polynomial time.

A one-dimensional visual tracking chip has been implemented using neuromorphic, analog VLSI techniques to model selective visual attention in the control of saccadic and smooth pursuit eye movements. The chip incorporates focal-plane processing to compute image saliency and a winner-take-all circuit to select a feature for tracking. The target position and direction of motion are reported as the target moves across the array. We demonstrate its functionality in a closed-loop system which performs saccadic and smooth pursuit tracking movements using a one-dimensional mechanical eye.

Artificial Neural Networks can be used to predict future returns of stocks in order to take financial decisions. Should one build a separate network for each stock or share the same network for all the stocks? In this paper we also explore other alternatives, in which some layers are shared and others are not shared. When the prediction of future returns for different stocks are viewed as different tasks, sharing some parameters across stocks is a form of multi-task learning. In a series of experiments with Canadian stocks, we obtain yearly returns that are more than 14% above various benchmarks.

This work investigates the representational and inductive capabilities of time-delay neural networks (TDNNs) in general, and of two subclasses of TDNN, those with delays only on the inputs (IDNN), and those which include delays on hidden units (HDNN). Both architectures are capable of representing the same class of languages, the definite memory machine (DMM) languages, but the delays on the hidden units in the HDNN helps it outperform the IDNN on problems composed of repeated features over short time windows.