We study a mistake-driven variant of an online Bayesian learning algorithm (similar to one studied by Cesa-Bianchi, Helmbold, and Panizza [CHP96]). This variant only updates its state (learns) on trials in which it makes a mistake. The algorithm makes binary classifications using a linear-threshold classifier and runs in time linear in the number of attributes seen by the learner. We have been able to show, theoretically and in simulations, that this algorithm performs well under assumptions quite different from those embodied in the prior of the original Bayesian algorithm. It can handle situations that we do not know how to handle in linear time with Bayesian algorithms. We expect our techniques to be useful in deriving and analyzing other apobayesian algorithms. 1 Introduction We consider two styles of online learning.

Standard recurrent nets cannot deal with long minimal time lags between relevant signals. Several recent NIPS papers propose alternative methods. We first show: problems used to promote various previous algorithms can be solved more quickly by random weight guessing than by the proposed algorithms. We then use LSTM, our own recent algorithm, to solve a hard problem that can neither be quickly solved by random search nor by any other recurrent net algorithm we are aware of.

When combining a set of learned models to form an improved estimator, the issue of redundancy or multicollinearity in the set of models must be addressed. A progression of existing approaches and their limitations with respect to the redundancy is discussed. A new approach, PCR *, based on principal components regression is proposed to address these limitations. An evaluation of the new approach on a collection of domains reveals that: 1) PCR* was the most robust combination method as the redundancy of the learned models increased, 2) redundancy could be handled without eliminating any of the learned models, and 3) the principal components of the learned models provided a continuum of "regularized" weights from which PCR * could choose.

Two "exact" algorithms were developed which lead to exactly the same results as OBS but using less time.

We describe the implementation of a hidden Markov model state decoding system, a component for a wordspotting speech recognition system. The key specification for this state decoder design is microwatt power dissipation; this requirement led to a continuoustime, analog circuit implementation. We characterize the operation of a 10-word (81 state) state decoder test chip.

A typical problem in experiments performed at high energy accelerators aimed at studying novel effects in the field of Elementary Particle Physics is that of preselecting interesting interactions at as early a stage as possible, in order to keep the data volume manageable. One class of events that have to be eliminated is due to cosmic muons that pass all trigger conditions.

A new regression technique based on Vapnik's concept of support vectors is introduced. We compare support vector regression (SVR) with a committee regression technique (bagging) based on regression trees and ridge regression done in feature space. On the basis of these experiments, it is expected that SVR will have advantages in high dimensionality space because SVR optimization does not depend on the dimensionality of the input space.

High frequency foreign exchange data can be decomposed into three components: the inventory effect component, the surprise infonnation (news) component and the regular infonnation component. The presence of the inventory effect and news can make analysis of trends due to the diffusion of infonnation (regular information component) difficult. We propose a neural-net-based, independent component analysis to separate high frequency foreign exchange data into these three components. Our empirical results show that our proposed multi-effect decomposition can reveal the intrinsic price behavior.

We consider the microscopic equations for learning problems in neural networks. The aligning fields of an example are obtained from the cavity fields, which are the fields if that example were absent in the learning process. In a rough energy landscape, we assume that the density of the local minima obey an exponential distribution, yielding macroscopic properties agreeing with the first step replica symmetry breaking solution. Iterating the microscopic equations provide a learning algorithm, which results in a higher stability than conventional algorithms. 1 INTRODUCTION Most neural networks learn iteratively by gradient descent. As a result, closed expressions for the final network state after learning are rarely known. This precludes further analysis of their properties, and insights into the design of learning algorithms.

Neural Computing Research Group Aston University, Birmingham, B4 7ET, U.K. http://www.ncrg.aston.ac.uk/ Abstract The techniques of Bayesian inference have been applied with great success to many problems in neural computing including evaluation of regression functions, determination of error bars on predictions, and the treatment of hyper-parameters. However, the problem of model comparison is a much more challenging one for which current techniques have significant limitations. In this paper we show how an extended form of Markov chain Monte Carlo, called chaining, is able to provide effective estimates of the relative probabilities of different models. We present results from the robot arm problem and compare them with the corresponding results obtained using the standard Gaussian approximation framework. Initially this is chosen to be some prior distribution p(wIM), which can be combined with a likelihood function p( Dlw, M) using Bayes' theorem to give a posterior distribution p(wID, M) in the form (ID M) p(Dlw,M)p(wIM) (1) p w, p(DIM) where D is the data set. Predictions of the model are obtained by performing integrations weighted by the posterior distribution.