This paper reports about an application of Bayes' inferred neural network classifiers in the field of automatic sleep staging. The reason for using Bayesian learning for this task is twofold. First, Bayesian inference is known to embody regularization automatically. Second, a side effect of Bayesian learning leads to larger variance of network outputs in regions without training data. This results in well known moderation effects, which can be used to detect outliers. In a 5 fold cross-validation experiment the full Bayesian solution found with R. Neals hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm, was not better than a single maximum a-posteriori (MAP) solution found with D.J. MacKay's evidence approximation. In a second experiment we studied the properties of both solutions in rejecting classification of movement artefacts.

We present a method for the analysis of nonstationary time series with multiple operating modes. In particular, it is possible to detect and to model both a switching of the dynamics and a less abrupt, time consuming drift from one mode to another. This is achieved in two steps. First, an unsupervised training method provides prediction experts for the inherent dynamical modes. Then, the trained experts are used in a hidden Markov model that allows to model drifts. An application to physiological wake/sleep data demonstrates that analysis and modeling of real-world time series can be improved when the drift paradigm is taken into account.

Consistency problems arise if the discretization needs to be refined, e.g. for more accuracy, application of multi-grid iteration or better starting values for the iteration of the approximate optimal value function. In [7] it was shown, that for diffusion dominated problems, a state to time discretization ratio k/ h of Ch'r, I

Department of Cognitive Science Department of Cognitive Science University of California, San Diego University of California, San Diego La Jolla, CA 92092-0515 La Jolla, CA 92092-0515 Abstract We discuss the problem of catastrophic fusion in multimodal recognition systems. This problem arises in systems that need to fuse different channels in non-stationary environments. Practice shows that when recognition modules within each modality are tested in contexts inconsistent with their assumptions, their influence on the fused product tends to increase, with catastrophic results. We explore a principled solution to this problem based upon Bayesian ideas of competitive models and inference robustification: each sensory channel is provided with simple white-noise context models, and the perceptual hypothesis and context are jointly estimated. Consequently, context deviations are interpreted as changes in white noise contamination strength, automatically adjusting the influence of the module.

The generalization ability of a neural network can sometimes be improved dramatically by regularization. To analyze the improvement one needs more refined results than the asymptotic distribution of the weight vector. Here we study the simple case of one-dimensional linear regression under quadratic regularization, i.e., ridge regression. We study the random design, misspecified case, where we derive expansions for the optimal regularization parameter and the ensuing improvement. It is possible to construct examples where it is best to use no regularization.

Estimating motion in scenes containing multiple moving objects remains a difficult problem in computer vision. A promising approach to this problem involves using mixture models, where the motion of each object is a component in the mixture. However, existing methods typically require specifying in advance the number of components in the mixture, i.e. the number of objects in the scene.

Exact inference in densely connected Bayesian networks is computationally intractable, and so there is considerable interest in developing effective approximation schemes. One approach which has been adopted is to bound the log likelihood using a mean-field approximating distribution. While this leads to a tractable algorithm, the mean field distribution is assumed to be factorial and hence unimodal. In this paper we demonstrate the feasibility of using a richer class of approximating distributions based on mixtures of mean field distributions. We derive an efficient algorithm for updating the mixture parameters and apply it to the problem of learning in sigmoid belief networks. Our results demonstrate a systematic improvement over simple mean field theory as the number of mixture components is increased.

There is strong evidence that face processing is localized in the brain. The double dissociation between prosopagnosia, a face recognition deficit occurring after brain damage, and visual object agnosia, difficulty recognizing otber kinds of complex objects, indicates tbat face and nonface object recognition may be served by partially independent mechanisms in the brain. Is neural specialization innate or learned? We suggest that this specialization could be tbe result of a competitive learning mechanism that, during development, devotes neural resources to the tasks they are best at performing. Furtber, we suggest that the specialization arises as an interaction between task requirements and developmental constraints. In this paper, we present a feed-forward computational model of visual processing, in which two modules compete to classify input stimuli. When one module receives low spatial frequency information and the other receives high spatial frequency information, and the task is to identify the faces while simply classifying the objects, the low frequency network shows a strong specialization for faces. No otber combination of tasks and inputs shows this strong specialization. We take these results as support for the idea that an innately-specified face processing module is unnecessary.

We present a new approach to reinforcement learning in which the policies considered by the learning process are constrained by hierarchies of partially specified machines. This allows for the use of prior knowledge to reduce the search space and provides a framework in which knowledge can be transferred across problems and in which component solutions can be recombined to solve larger and more complicated problems. Our approach can be seen as providing a link between reinforcement learning and "behavior-based" or "teleo-reactive" approaches to control. We present provably convergent algorithms for problem-solving and learning with hierarchical machines and demonstrate their effectiveness on a problem with several thousand states.

We apply a general algorithm for merging prediction strategies (the Aggregating Algorithm) to the problem of linear regression with the square loss; our main assumption is that the response variable is bounded. It turns out that for this particular problem the Aggregating Algorithm resembles, but is slightly different from, the wellknown ridge estimation procedure. From general results about the Aggregating Algorithm we deduce a guaranteed bound on the difference between our algorithm's performance and the best, in some sense, linear regression function's performance. We show that the AA attains the optimal constant in our bound, whereas the constant attained by the ridge regression procedure in general can be 4 times worse. 1 INTRODUCTION The usual approach to regression problems is to assume that the data are generated by some stochastic mechanism and make some, typically very restrictive, assumptions about that stochastic mechanism. In recent years, however, a different approach to this kind of problems was developed (see, e.g., DeSantis et al. [2], Littlestone and Warmuth [7]): in our context, that approach sets the goal of finding an online algorithm that performs not much worse than the best regression function found off-line; in other words, it replaces the usual statistical analyses by the competitive analysis of online algorithms. DeSantis et al. [2] performed a competitive analysis of the Bayesian merging scheme for the log-loss prediction game; later Littlestone and Warmuth [7] and Vovk [10] introduced an online algorithm (called the Weighted Majority Algorithm by the Competitive Online Linear Regression 365 former authors) for the simple binary prediction game. These two algorithms (the Bayesian merging scheme and the Weighted Majority Algorithm) are special cases of the Aggregating Algorithm (AA) proposed in [9, 11]. The AA is a member of a wide family of algorithms called "multiplicative weight" or "exponential weight" algorithms. Closer to the topic of this paper, Cesa-Bianchi et al. [1) performed a competitive analysis, under the square loss, of the standard Gradient Descent Algorithm and Kivinen and Warmuth [6] complemented it by a competitive analysis of a modification of the Gradient Descent, which they call the Exponentiated Gradient Algorithm.