The study of belief change has been an active area in philosophy and AI. In recent years two special cases of belief change, belief revision and belief update, have been studied in detail. In a companion paper (Friedman & Halpern, 1997), we introduce a new framework to model belief change. This framework combines temporal and epistemic modalities with a notion of plausibility, allowing us to examine the change of beliefs over time. In this paper, we show how belief revision and belief update can be captured in our framework. This allows us to compare the assumptions made by each method, and to better understand the principles underlying them. In particular, it shows that Katsuno and Mendelzon's notion of belief update (Katsuno & Mendelzon, 1991a) depends on several strong assumptions that may limit its applicability in artificial intelligence. Finally, our analysis allow us to identify a notion of minimal change that underlies a broad range of belief change operations including revision and update.

Cox's well-known theorem justifying the use of probability is shown not to hold in finite domains. The counterexample also suggests that Cox's assumptions are insufficient to prove the result even in infinite domains. The same counterexample is used to disprove a result of Fine on comparative conditional probability.

The relationship between the Bayesian approach and the minimum description length approach is established. We sharpen and clarify the general modeling principles MDL and MML, abstracted as the ideal MDL principle and defined from Bayes's rule by means of Kolmogorov complexity. The basic condition under which the ideal principle should be applied is encapsulated as the Fundamental Inequality, which in broad terms states that the principle is valid when the data are random, relative to every contemplated hypothesis and also these hypotheses are random relative to the (universal) prior. Basically, the ideal principle states that the prior probability associated with the hypothesis should be given by the algorithmic universal probability, and the sum of the log universal probability of the model plus the log of the probability of the data given the model should be minimized. If we restrict the model class to the finite sets then application of the ideal principle turns into Kolmogorov's minimal sufficient statistic. In general we show that data compression is almost always the best strategy, both in hypothesis identification and prediction.

In this paper we present TDLeaf(lambda), a variation on the TD(lambda) algorithm that enables it to be used in conjunction with minimax search. We present some experiments in both chess and backgammon which demonstrate its utility and provide comparisons with TD(lambda) and another less radical variant, TD-directed(lambda). In particular, our chess program, ``KnightCap,'' used TDLeaf(lambda) to learn its evaluation function while playing on the Free Internet Chess Server (FICS, fics.onenet.net). It improved from a 1650 rating to a 2100 rating in just 308 games. We discuss some of the reasons for this success and the relationship between our results and Tesauro's results in backgammon.

We have a developed an analog VLSI system that models the coordination of neurobiological segmental oscillators. We have implemented and tested a system that consists of a chain of eleven pattern generating circuits that are synaptically coupled to their nearest neighbors. Each pattern generating circuit is implemented with two silicon Morris-Lecar neurons that are connected in a reciprocally inhibitory network. We discuss the mechanisms of oscillations in the two-cell network and explore system behavior based on isotropic and anisotropic coupling, and frequency gradients along the chain of oscillators.

Nonlinear dimensionality reduction is formulated here as the problem of trying to find a Euclidean feature-space embedding of a set of observations that preserves as closely as possible their intrinsic metric structure - the distances between points on the observation manifold as measured along geodesic paths. Our isometric feature mapping procedure, or isomap, is able to reliably recover low-dimensional nonlinear structure in realistic perceptual data sets, such as a manifold of face images, where conventional global mapping methods find only local minima. The recovered map provides a canonical set of globally meaningful features, which allows perceptual transformations such as interpolation, extrapolation, and analogy - highly nonlinear transformations in the original observation space - to be computed with simple linear operations in feature space.

Recent theoretical results for pattern classification with thresholded real-valued functions (such as support vector machines, sigmoid networks, and boosting) give bounds on misclassification probability that do not depend on the size of the classifier, and hence can be considerably smaller than the bounds that follow from the VC theory. In this paper, we show that these techniques can be more widely applied, by representing other boolean functions as two-layer neural networks (thresholded convex combinations of boolean functions).

A rich body of data exists showing that recollection of specific information makes an important contribution to recognition memory, which is distinct from the contribution of familiarity, and is not adequately captured by existing unitary memory models. Furthennore, neuropsychological evidence indicates that recollection is sub served by the hippocampus. We present a model, based largely on known features of hippocampal anatomy and physiology, that accounts for the following key characteristics of recollection: 1) false recollection is rare (i.e., participants rarely claim to recollect having studied nonstudied items), and 2) increasing interference leads to less recollection but apparently does not compromise the quality of recollection (i.e., the extent to which recollected infonnation veridically reflects events that occurred at study).

Motivated by the findings of modular structure in the association cortex, we study a multi-modular model of associative memory that can successfully store memory patterns with different levels of activity. We show that the segregation of synaptic conductances into intra-modular linear and inter-modular nonlinear ones considerably enhances the network's memory retrieval performance. Compared with the conventional, single-module associative memory network, the multi-modular network has two main advantages: It is less susceptible to damage to columnar input, and its response is consistent with the cognitive data pertaining to category specific impairment. 1 Introduction Cortical modules were observed in the somatosensory and visual cortices a few decades ago. These modules differ in their structure and functioning but are likely to be an elementary unit of processing in the mammalian cortex. Within each module the neurons are interconnected.

This paper introduces a probability model, the mixture of trees that can account for sparse, dynamically changing dependence relationships. We present a family of efficient algorithms that use EM and the Minimum Spanning Tree algorithm to find the ML and MAP mixture of trees for a variety of priors, including the Dirichlet and the MDL priors.