AR-NNs are a natural generalization of the classic linear autoregressive AR(p) process (2) See, e.g., Brockwell & Davis (1987) for a comprehensive introduction into AR and ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models.

Arguably one of the most important types of information processing is the capacity for probabilistic reasoning. The properties of undirectedproDabilistic models represented as symmetric networks have been studied extensively using methods from statistical mechanics (Hertz et aI, 1991). Detailed analyses of these models are possible by exploiting averaging phenomena that occur in the thermodynamic limit of large networks. In this paper, we analyze the limit of large, multilayer networks for probabilistic models represented as directed acyclic graphs. These models are known as Bayesian networks (Pearl, 1988; Neal, 1992), and they have different probabilistic semantics than symmetric neural networks (such as Hopfield models or Boltzmann machines). We show that the intractability of exact inference in multilayer Bayesian networks Inference in Multilayer Networks via Large Deviation Bounds 261 does not preclude their effective use. Our work builds on earlier studies of variational methods (Jordan et aI, 1997).

Following recent results [9, 8] showing the importance of the fatshattering dimension in explaining the beneficial effect of a large margin on generalization performance, the current paper investigates the implications of these results for the case of imbalanced datasets and develops two approaches to setting the threshold. The approaches are incorporated into ThetaBoost, a boosting algorithm for dealing with unequal loss functions. The performance of ThetaBoost and the two approaches are tested experimentally.

The W-S (Wake-Sleep) algorithm is a simple learning rule for the models with hidden variables. It is shown that this algorithm can be applied to a factor analysis model which is a linear version of the Helmholtz machine. But even for a factor analysis model, the general convergence is not proved theoretically. In this article, we describe the geometrical understanding of the W-S algorithm in contrast with the EM (Expectation Maximization) algorithm and the em algorithm. As the result, we prove the convergence of the W-S algorithm for the factor analysis model. We also show the condition for the convergence in general models.

Recent works in parameter estimation and neural coding have demonstrated that optimal performance are related to the mutual information between parameters and data. We consider the mutual information in the case where the dependency in the parameter (a vector 8) of the conditional p.d.f. of each observation (a vector

We describe a unifying method for proving relative loss bounds for online linear threshold classification algorithms, such as the Perceptron and the Winnow algorithms. For classification problems the discrete loss is used, i.e., the total number of prediction mistakes. We introduce a continuous loss function, called the "linear hinge loss", that can be employed to derive the updates of the algorithms. We first prove bounds w.r.t. the linear hinge loss and then convert them to the discrete loss. We introduce a notion of "average margin" of a set of examples. We show how relative loss bounds based on the linear hinge loss can be converted to relative loss bounds i.t.o. the discrete loss using the average margin.

Gaussian process (GP) prediction suffers from O(n3) scaling with the data set size n. By using a finite-dimensional basis to approximate the GP predictor, the computational complexity can be reduced. We derive optimal finite-dimensional predictors under a number of assumptions, and show the superiority of these predictors over the Projected Bayes Regression method (which is asymptotically optimal). We also show how to calculate the minimal model size for a given n. The calculations are backed up by numerical experiments.

We solve the dynamics of Hopfield-type neural networks which store sequences of patterns, close to saturation. The asymmetry of the interaction matrix in such models leads to violation of detailed balance, ruling out an equilibrium statistical mechanical analysis. Using generating functional methods we derive exact closed equations for dynamical order parameters, viz. the sequence overlap and correlation and response functions.

The kernel-parameter is one of the few tunable parameters in Support Vector machines, controlling the complexity of the resulting hypothesis. Its choice amounts to model selection and its value is usually found by means of a validation set. We present an algorithm which can automatically perform model selection with little additional computational cost and with no need of a validation set. In this procedure model selection and learning are not separate, but kernels are dynamically adjusted during the learning process to find the kernel parameter which provides the best possible upper bound on the generalisation error. Theoretical results motivating the approach and experimental results confirming its validity are presented.

We study the dynamics of supervised learning in layered neural networks, in the regime where the size p of the training set is proportional to the number N of inputs. Here the local fields are no longer described by Gaussian distributions.