In this work, we introduce an information-theoretic based correction term to the likelihood ratio classification method for multiple classes. Under certain conditions, the term is sufficient for optimally correcting the difference between the true and estimated likelihood ratio, and we analyze this in the Gaussian case. We find that the new correction term significantly improves the classification results when tested on medium vocabulary speech recognition tasks. Moreover, the addition of this term makes the class comparisons analogous to an intransitive game and we therefore use several tournament-like strategies to deal with this issue. We find that further small improvements are obtained by using an appropriate tournament. Lastly, we find that intransitivity appears to be a good measure of classification confidence.

Multisensory response enhancement (MRE) is the augmentation of the response of a neuron to sensory input of one modality by simultaneous input from another modality. The maximum likelihood (ML) model presented here modifies the Bayesian model for MRE (Anastasio et al.) by incorporating a decision strategy to maximize the number of correct decisions. Thus the ML model can also deal with the important tasks of stimulus discrimination and identification in the presence of incongruent visual and auditory cues. It accounts for the inverse effectiveness observed in neurophysiological recording data, and it predicts a functional relation between uni-and bimodal levels of discriminability that is testable both in neurophysiological and behavioral experiments.

To find out how the representations of structured visual objects depend on the co-occurrence statistics of their constituents, we exposed subjects to a set of composite images with tight control exerted over (1) the conditional probabilities of the constituent fragments, and (2) the value of Barlow's criterion of "suspicious coincidence" (the ratio of joint probability to the product of marginals). We then compared the part verification response times for various probe/target combinations before and after the exposure. For composite probes, the speedup was much larger for targets that contained pairs of fragments perfectly predictive of each other, compared to those that did not. This effect was modulated by the significance of their co-occurrence as estimated by Barlow's criterion. For lone-fragment probes, the speedup in all conditions was generally lower than for composites. These results shed light on the brain's strategies for unsupervised acquisition of structural information in vision.

The question of whether the nervous system produces movement through the combination of a few discrete elements has long been central to the study of motor control. Muscle synergies, i.e. coordinated patterns of muscle activity, have been proposed as possible building blocks. Here we propose a model based on combinations of muscle synergies with a specific amplitude and temporal structure. Time-varying synergies provide a realistic basis for the decomposition of the complex patterns observed in natural behaviors. To extract time-varying synergies from simultaneous recording of EMG activity we developed an algorithm which extends existing nonnegative matrix factorization techniques.

We are interested in the mechanisms by which individuals monitor and adjust their performance of simple cognitive tasks. We model a speeded discrimination task in which individuals are asked to classify a sequence of stimuli (Jones & Braver, 2001). Response conflict arises when one stimulus class is infrequent relative to another, resulting in more errors and slower reaction times for the infrequent class. How do control processes modulate behavior based on the relative class frequencies? We explain performance from a rational perspective that casts the goal of individuals as minimizing a cost that depends both on error rate and reaction time.

It has been noted by several authors that Belief Propagation can can also give impressive results for graphs that are not trees [2]. The Cluster Variation Method (CVM), is a method that has been developed in the physics community for approximate inference in the Ising model [3]. The CVM approximates the joint probability distribution by a number of (overlapping) marginal distributions (clusters). The quality of the approximation is determined by the size and number of clusters. When the clusters consist of only two variables, the method is known as the Bethe approximation.

We present a new approach to bounding the true error rate of a continuous valued classifier based upon PAC-Bayes bounds. The method first constructs a distribution over classifiers by determining how sensitive each parameter in the model is to noise. The true error rate of the stochastic classifier found with the sensitivity analysis can then be tightly bounded using a PAC-Bayes bound.

Massive transaction data sets are recorded in a routine manner in telecommunications, retail commerce, and Web site management. In this paper we address the problem of inferring predictive individual profiles from such historical transaction data. We describe a generative mixture model for count data and use an an approximate Bayesian estimation framework that effectively combines an individual's specific history with more general population patterns. We use a large real-world retail transaction data set to illustrate how these profiles consistently outperform non-mixture and non-Bayesian techniques in predicting customer behavior in out-of-sample data.

We develop a tree-based reparameterization framework that provides a new conceptual view of a large class of iterative algorithms for computing approximate marginals in graphs with cycles. It includes belief propagation (BP), which can be reformulated as a very local form of reparameterization. More generally, we consider algorithms that perform exact computations over spanning trees of the full graph. On the practical side, we find that such tree reparameterization (TRP) algorithms have convergence properties superior to BP. The reparameterization perspective also provides a number of theoretical insights into approximate inference, including a new characterization of fixed points; and an invariance intrinsic to TRP /BP.

We propose a new approach to reinforcement learning which combines least squares function approximation with policy iteration. Our method is model-free and completely off policy. We are motivated by the least squares temporal difference learning algorithm (LSTD), which is known for its efficient use of sample experiences compared to pure temporal difference algorithms. LSTD is ideal for prediction problems, however it heretofore has not had a straightforward application to control problems. Moreover, approximations learned by LSTD are strongly influenced by the visitation distribution over states.