We consider the question of predicting nonlinear time series. Kernel Dynamical Modeling (KDM), a new method based on kernels, is proposed as an extension to linear dynamical models. The kernel trick is used twice: first, to learn the parameters of the model, and second, to compute preimages of the time series predicted in the feature space by means of Support Vector Regression. Our model shows strong connection with the classic Kalman Filter model, with the kernel feature space as hidden state space. Kernel Dynamical Modeling is tested against two benchmark time series and achieves high quality predictions.

We propose an information-theoretic clustering approach that incorporates a pre-known partition of the data, aiming to identify common clusters that cut across the given partition. In the standard clustering setting the formation of clusters is guided by a single source of feature information. The newly utilized pre-partition factor introduces an additional bias that counterbalances the impact of the features whenever they become correlated with this known partition. The resulting algorithmic framework was applied successfully to synthetic data, as well as to identifying text-based cross-religion correspondences.

Recent developments in grid-based and point-based approximation algorithms for POMDPs have greatly improved the tractability of POMDP planning. These approaches operate on sets of belief points by individually learning a value function for each point. In reality, belief points exist in a highly-structured metric simplex, but current POMDP algorithms do not exploit this property. This paper presents a new metric-tree algorithm which can be used in the context of POMDP planning to sort belief points spatially, and then perform fast value function updates over groups of points. We present results showing that this approach can reduce computation in point-based POMDP algorithms for a wide range of problems.

We present a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian models and regularized risk functionals. It is based on the propagation of mean and variance derived from the Laplace approximation of conditional probabilities in factorizing distributions, much akin to Minka's Expectation Propagation. In the jointly normal case, it coincides with the latter and belief propagation, whereas in the general case, it provides an optimization strategy containing Support Vector chunking, the Bayes Committee Machine, and Gaussian Process chunking as special cases.

We address in this paper the question of how the knowledge of the marginal distribution P (x) can be incorporated in a learning algorithm. We suggest three theoretical methods for taking into account this distribution for regularization and provide links to existing graph-based semi-supervised learning algorithms. We also propose practical implementations.

This paper compares the ability of human observers to detect target image curves with that of an ideal observer. The target curves are sampled from a generative model which specifies (probabilistically) the geometry and local intensity properties of the curve. The ideal observer performs Bayesian inference on the generative model using MAP estimation. Varying the probability model for the curve geometry enables us investigate whether human performance is best for target curves that obey specific shape statistics, in particular those observed on natural shapes. Experiments are performed with data on both rectangular and hexagonal lattices. Our results show that human observers' performance approaches that of the ideal observer and are, in general, closest to the ideal for conditions where the target curve tends to be straight or similar to natural statistics on curves. This suggests a bias of human observers towards straight curves and natural statistics.

The classifiers are based on dyadic classification trees (DCTs), which involve adaptively pruned partitions of the feature space. A key aspect of DCTs is their spatial adaptivity, which enables local (rather than global) fitting of the decision boundary. Our risk analysis involves a spatial decomposition of the usual concentration inequalities, leading to a spatially adaptive, data-dependent pruning criterion. For any distribution on (X, Y) whose Bayes decision boundary behaves locally like a Lipschitz smooth function, we show that the DCT error converges to the Bayes error at a rate within a logarithmic factor of the minimax optimal rate.

We present a new method for calculating approximate marginals for probability distributions defined by graphs with cycles, based on a Gaussian entropy bound combined with a semidefinite outer bound on the marginal polytope. This combination leads to a log-determinant maximization problem that can be solved by efficient interior point methods [8]. As with the Bethe approximation and its generalizations [12], the optimizing arguments of this problem can be taken as approximations to the exact marginals. In contrast to Bethe/Kikuchi approaches, our variational problem is strictly convex and so has a unique global optimum. An additional desirable feature is that the value of the optimal solution is guaranteed to provide an upper bound on the log partition function. In experimental trials, the performance of the log-determinant relaxation is comparable to or better than the sum-product algorithm, and by a substantial margin for certain problem classes. Finally, the zero-temperature limit of our log-determinant relaxation recovers a class of well-known semidefinite relaxations for integer programming [e.g., 3].

At a cocktail party, a listener can selectively attend to a single voice and filter out other acoustical interferences. How to simulate this perceptual ability remains a great challenge. This paper describes a novel supervised learning approach to speech segregation, in which a target speech signal is separated from interfering sounds using spatial location cues: interaural time differences (ITD) and interaural intensity differences (IID). Motivated by the auditory masking effect, we employ the notion of an ideal time-frequency binary mask, which selects the target if it is stronger than the interference in a local time-frequency unit. Within a narrow frequency band, modifications to the relative strength of the target source with respect to the interference trigger systematic changes for estimated ITD and IID.

This allows for non-Gaussian processes and non-Gaussian noise. The learning algorithm chooses a nonlinear transformation such that transformed data is well-modelled by a GP. This can be seen as including a preprocessing transformation as an integral part of the probabilistic modelling problem, rather than as an ad-hoc step. We demonstrate on several real regression problems that learning the transformation can lead to significantly better performance than using a regular GP, or a GP with a fixed transformation.