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Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Brain-Computer Interfaces

Neural Information Processing Systems

We describe an approach to building brain-computer interfaces (BCI) based on graphical models for probabilistic inference and learning. We show how a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) can be used to infer probability distributions over brain-and body-states during planning and execution of actions. The DBN is learned directly from observed data and allows measured signals such as EEG and EMG to be interpreted in terms of internal states such as intent to move, preparatory activity, and movement execution. Unlike traditional classification-based approaches to BCI, the proposed approach (1) allows continuous tracking and prediction ofinternal states over time, and (2) generates control signals based on an entire probability distribution over states rather than binary yes/no decisions. We present preliminary results of brain-and body-state estimation usingsimultaneous EEG and EMG signals recorded during a self-paced left/right hand movement task.


Heuristics for Ordering Cue Search in Decision Making

Neural Information Processing Systems

Simple lexicographic decision heuristics that consider cues one at a time in a particular order and stop searching for cues as soon as a decision can be made have been shown to be both accurate and frugal in their use of information. But much of the simplicity and success of these heuristics comes from using an appropriate cue order. For instance, the Take The Best heuristic uses validity order for cues, which requires considerable computation, potentially undermining the computational advantages of the simple decision mechanism. But many cue orders can achieve good decision performance, and studies of sequential search for data records have proposed a number of simple ordering rules that may be of use in constructing appropriate decision cue orders as well. Here we consider a range of simple cue ordering mechanisms, including tallying, swapping, and move-to-front rules, and show that they can find cue orders that lead to reasonable accuracy and considerable frugality when used with lexicographic decision heuristics.



Optimal Aggregation of Classifiers and Boosting Maps in Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a method of optimal data-driven aggregation of classifiers in a convex combination and establish tight upper bounds on its excess risk with respect to a convex loss function under the assumption that the solution ofoptimal aggregation problem is sparse. We use a boosting type algorithm of optimal aggregation to develop aggregate classifiers of activation patternsin fMRI based on locally trained SVM classifiers. The aggregation coefficients are then used to design a "boosting map" of the brain needed to identify the regions with most significant impact on classification.


Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Intrinsic Dimension

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theoretically andby simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.


Bayesian inference in spiking neurons

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integrators accumulatingevidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new information, i.e.what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic representation ofprobabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implementing avariant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilistic, andcan be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].


Stable adaptive control with online learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Learning algorithms have enjoyed numerous successes in robotic control tasks. In problems with time-varying dynamics, online learning methods have also proved to be a powerful tool for automatically tracking and/or adapting to the changing circumstances. However, for safety-critical applications suchas airplane flight, the adoption of these algorithms has been significantly hampered by their lack of safety, such as "stability," guarantees. Rather than trying to show difficult, a priori, stability guarantees forspecific learning methods, in this paper we propose a method for "monitoring" the controllers suggested by the learning algorithm online, andrejecting controllers leading to instability. We prove that even if an arbitrary online learning method is used with our algorithm to control a linear dynamical system, the resulting system is stable.


Solitaire: Man Versus Machine

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we use the rollout method for policy improvement to analyze aversion of Klondike solitaire. This version, sometimes called thoughtful solitaire, has all cards revealed to the player, but then follows the usual Klondike rules. A strategy that we establish, using iterated rollouts, winsabout twice as many games on average as an expert human player does.