We present a partial-order, conformant, probabilistic planner, Probapop which competed in the blind track of the Probabilistic Planning Competition in IPC-4. We explain how we adapt distance based heuristics for use with probabilistic domains. Probapop also incorporates heuristics based on probability of success. We explain the successes and difficulties encountered during the design and implementation of Probapop.

Dhiraj K. Pathak 1, Eric P. Hoffman 2, and 1 Mark W. Perlin 1 Department of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University 2 Department of Molecular Genetics and Biochemistry, University of Pittsburgh Abstract This paper describes a knowledge-based system for molecular diagnostics, and its application to fully automated diagnosis of X-hnked genetic disorders. Molecular diagnostic information is used in chnical practice for determining genetic risks, such as carrier determination and prenatal diagnosis. Initially, blood samples are obtained from related individuals, and PCR amphfication is performed. Linkage-based molecular diagnosis then entails three data analysis steps. First, for every individual, the alleles (i.e., DNA composition) are determined at specified chromosomal locations. Second, the flow of genetic material among the individuals is established. Third, the probability that a given individual is either a carrier of the disease or affected by the disease is determined. The current practice is to perform each of these three steps manually, which is costly, time consuming, labor-intensive, and error-prone. As such, the knowledge-intensive data analysis and interpretation supersede the actual experimentation effort as the major bottleneck in molecular diagnostics.

The goal of this paper is to provide a strong integration between constraint modelling and relational DBMSs. To this end we propose extensions of standard query languages such as relational algebra and SQL, by adding constraint modelling capabilities to them. In particular, we propose non-deterministic extensions of both languages, which are specially suited for combinatorial problems. Non-determinism is introduced by means of a guessing operator, which declares a set of relations to have an arbitrary extension. This new operator results in languages with higher expressive power, able to express all problems in the complexity class NP. Some syntactical restrictions which make data complexity polynomial are shown. The effectiveness of both extensions is demonstrated by means of several examples. The current implementation, written in Java using local search techniques, is described. To appear in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP)

Gaussian processes are usually parameterised in terms of their covariance functions.However, this makes it difficult to deal with multiple outputs, because ensuring that the covariance matrix is positive definite is problematic. An alternative formulation is to treat Gaussian processes as white noise sources convolved with smoothing kernels, and to parameterise thekernel instead. Using this, we extend Gaussian processes to handle multiple, coupled outputs.

Agents learning to act in a partially observable domain may need to overcome the problem of perceptual aliasing - i.e., different states that appear similar but require different responses. This problem is exacerbated when the agent's sensors are noisy, i.e., sensors may produce different observations in the same state. We show that many well-known reinforcement learning methods designed to deal with perceptual aliasing, such as Utile Suffix Memory, finite size history windows, eligibility traces, and memory bits, do not handle noisy sensors well. We suggest a new algorithm, Noisy Utile Suffix Memory (NUSM), based on USM, that uses a weighted classification of observed trajectories. We compare NUSM to the above methods and show it to be more robust to noise.

Motivated by the particular problems involved in communicating with "locked-in" paralysed patients, we aim to develop a braincomputer interface that uses auditory stimuli. We describe a paradigm that allows a user to make a binary decision by focusing attention on one of two concurrent auditory stimulus sequences. Using Support Vector Machine classification and Recursive Channel Elimination on the independent components of averaged eventrelated potentials, we show that an untrained user's EEG data can be classified with an encouragingly high level of accuracy. This suggests that it is possible for users to modulate EEG signals in a single trial by the conscious direction of attention, well enough to be useful in BCI.

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integrators accumulating evidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new information, i.e. what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic representation of probabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implementing a variant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilistic, and can be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].

Multiple realizations of continuous-valued time series from a stochastic process often contain systematic variations in rate and amplitude. To leverage the information contained in such noisy replicate sets, we need to align them in an appropriate way (for example, to allow the data to be properly combined by adaptive averaging). We present the Continuous Profile Model (CPM), a generative model in which each observed time series is a non-uniformly subsampled version of a single latent trace, to which local rescaling and additive noise are applied. After unsupervised training, the learned trace represents a canonical, high resolution fusion of all the replicates. As well, an alignment in time and scale of each observation to this trace can be found by inference in the model. We apply CPM to successfully align speech signals from multiple speakers and sets of Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry proteomic data.

We present a semi-parametric latent variable model based technique for density modelling, dimensionality reduction and visualization. Unlike previous methods, we estimate the latent distribution non-parametrically which enables us to model data generated by an underlying low dimensional, multimodal distribution. In addition, we allow the components of latent variable models to be drawn from the exponential family which makes the method suitable for special data types, for example binary or count data. Simulations on real valued, binary and count data show favorable comparison to other related schemes both in terms of separating different populations and generalization to unseen samples.

Statistical language models estimate the probability of a word occurring in a given context. The most common language models rely on a discrete enumeration of predictive contexts (e.g., n-grams) and consequently fail to capture and exploit statistical regularities across these contexts. In this paper, we show how to learn hierarchical, distributed representations of word contexts that maximize the predictive value of a statistical language model. The representations are initialized by unsupervised algorithms for linear and nonlinear dimensionality reduction [14], then fed as input into a hierarchical mixture of experts, where each expert is a multinomial distribution over predicted words [12]. While the distributed representations in our model are inspired by the neural probabilistic language model of Bengio et al. [2, 3], our particular architecture enables us to work with significantly larger vocabularies and training corpora. For example, on a large-scale bigram modeling task involving a sixty thousand word vocabulary and a training corpus of three million sentences, we demonstrate consistent improvement over class-based bigram models [10, 13]. We also discuss extensions of our approach to longer multiword contexts.