W e consider the problem of multi-step ahead prediction in time series analysis using the nonparametric Gaussian process model.

Prior knowledge in the form of multiple polyhedral sets, each belonging to one of two categories, is introduced into a reformulation of a linear support vector machine classifier. The resulting formulation leads to a linear program that can be solved efficiently. Real world examples, from DNA sequencing and breast cancer prognosis, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Numerical results show improvement in test set accuracy after the incorporation of prior knowledge into ordinary, data-based linear support vector machine classifiers. One experiment also shows that a linear classifier, based solely on prior knowledge, far outperforms the direct application of prior knowledge rules to classify data.

Many algorithms rely critically on being given a good metric over their inputs. For instance, data can often be clustered in many "plausible" ways, and if a clustering algorithm such as K-means initially fails to find one that is meaningful to a user, the only recourse may be for the user to manually tweak the metric until sufficiently good clusters are found. For these and other applications requiring good metrics, it is desirable that we provide a more systematic way for users to indicate what they consider "similar." For instance, we may ask them to provide examples.

We study an explicit parametric model of documents, queries, and relevancy assessment for Information Retrieval (IR). Mean-field methods are applied to analyze the model and derive efficient practical algorithms to estimate the parameters in the problem. The hyperparameters are estimated by a fast approximate leave-one-out cross-validation procedure based on the cavity method. The algorithm is further evaluated on several benchmark databases by comparing with standard algorithms in IR.

We investigate Bayesian alternatives to classical Monte Carlo methods for evaluating integrals. Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) allows the incorporation of prior knowledge, such as smoothness of the integrand, into the estimation. In a simple problem we show that this outperforms any classical importance sampling method. We also attempt more challenging multidimensional integrals involved in computing marginal likelihoods of statistical models (a.k.a.

We consider the problem of choosing a kernel suitable for estimation using a Gaussian Process estimator or a Support Vector Machine. A novel solution is presented which involves defining a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space on the space of kernels itself. By utilizing an analog of the classical representer theorem, the problem of choosing a kernel from a parameterized family of kernels (e.g. of varying width) is reduced to a statistical estimation problem akin to the problem of minimizing a regularized risk functional. Various classical settings for model or kernel selection are special cases of our framework.

In this work, we study an information filtering model where the relevance labels associated to a sequence of feature vectors are realizations of an unknown probabilistic linear function. Building on the analysis of a restricted version of our model, we derive a general filtering rule based on the margin of a ridge regression estimator. While our rule may observe the label of a vector only by classfying the vector as relevant, experiments on a real-world document filtering problem show that the performance of our rule is close to that of the online classifier which is allowed to observe all labels. These empirical results are complemented by a theoretical analysis where we consider a randomized variant of our rule and prove that its expected number of mistakes is never much larger than that of the optimal filtering rule which knows the hidden linear model.

Prototypes based algorithms are commonly used to reduce the computational complexity of Nearest-Neighbour (NN) classifiers. In this paper we discuss theoretical and algorithmical aspects of such algorithms. On the theory side, we present margin based generalization bounds that suggest that these kinds of classifiers can be more accurate then the 1-NN rule. Furthermore, we derived a training algorithm that selects a good set of prototypes using large margin principles. We also show that the 20 years old Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) algorithm emerges naturally from our framework.

We investigate the generalization performance of some learning problems in Hilbert function Spaces. We introduce a concept of scalesensitive effective data dimension, and show that it characterizes the convergence rate of the underlying learning problem. Using this concept, we can naturally extend results for parametric estimation problems in finite dimensional spaces to nonparametric kernel learning methods. We derive upper bounds on the generalization performance and show that the resulting convergent rates are optimal under various circumstances.

There are two mathematical flavors of margin bound dependent upon the weights Wi of the vote and the features Xi that the vote is taken over. The results here are of the "bll2" form. We improve on Shawe-Taylor et al. [12] and Bartlett [1] by a log(m)2 sample complexity factor and much tighter constants (1000 or unstated versus 9 or 18 as suggested by Section 2.2). In addition, the bound here covers margin errors without weakening the error-free case. Herbrich and Graepel [3] moved significantly towards the approach adopted in our paper, but the methodology adopted meant that their result does not scale well to high dimensional feature spaces as the bound here (and earlier results) do.