We present a new analysis for the combination of binary classifiers. We propose a theoretical framework based on the Neyman-Pearson lemma to analyze combinations of classifiers. In particular, we give a method for finding the optimal decision rule for a combination of classifiers and prove that it has the optimal ROC curve. We also show how our method generalizes and improves on previous work on combining classifiers and generating ROC curves.

Loopy belief propagation has been employed in a wide variety of applications with great empirical success, but it comes with few theoretical guarantees. In this paper we investigate the use of the max-product form of belief propagation for weighted matching problems on general graphs. We show that max-product converges to the correct answer if the linear programming (LP) relaxation of the weighted matching problem is tight and does not converge if the LP relaxation is loose. This provides an exact characterization of max-product performance and reveals connections to the widely used optimization technique of LP relaxation. In addition, we demonstrate that max-product is effective in solving practical weighted matching problems in a distributed fashion by applying it to the problem of self-organization in sensor networks.

Brain-Computer Interfaces can suffer from a large variance of the subject conditions withinand across sessions. For example vigilance fluctuations in the individual, variabletask involvement, workload etc. alter the characteristics of EEG signals and thus challenge a stable BCI operation. In the present work we aim to define features based on a variant of the common spatial patterns (CSP) algorithm that are constructed invariant with respect to such nonstationarities. We enforce invariance properties by adding terms to the denominator of a Rayleigh coefficient representation of CSP such as disturbance covariance matrices from fluctuations in visual processing. In this manner physiological prior knowledge can be used to shape the classification engine for BCI. As a proof of concept we present a BCI classifier that is robust to changes in the level of parietal α-activity. In other words, the EEG decoding still works when there are lapses in vigilance.

An important problem in many fields is the analysis of counts data to extract meaningful latent components. Methods like Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been proposed for this purpose. However, they are limited in the number of components they can extract and also do not have a provision to control the expressiveness" of the extracted components. In this paper, we present a learning formulation to address these limitations by employing the notion of sparsity. We start with the PLSA framework and use an entropic prior in a maximum a posteriori formulation to enforce sparsity. We show that this allows the extraction of overcomplete sets of latent components which better characterize the data. We present experimental evidence of the utility of such representations."

We present a new and efficient semi-supervised training method for parameter estimation and feature selection in conditional random fields (CRFs). In real-world applications such as activity recognition, unlabeled sensor traces are relatively easy to obtain whereas labeled examples are expensive and tedious to collect. Furthermore, the ability to automatically select a small subset of discriminatory features from a large pool can be advantageous in terms of computational speed as well as accuracy. In this paper, we introduce the semi-supervised virtual evidence boosting (sVEB) algorithm for training CRFs -- a semi-supervised extension to the recently developed virtual evidence boosting (VEB) method for feature selection and parameter learning. Semi-supervised VEB takes advantage of the unlabeled data via minimum entropy regularization -- the objective function combines the unlabeled conditional entropy with labeled conditional pseudo-likelihood. The sVEB algorithm reduces the overall system cost as well as the human labeling cost required during training, which are both important considerations in building real world inference systems. In a set of experiments on synthetic data and real activity traces collected from wearable sensors, we illustrate that our algorithm benefits from both the use of unlabeled data and automatic feature selection, and outperforms other semi-supervised training approaches.

Bayesian model averaging, model selection and their approximations such as BIC are generally statistically consistent, but sometimes achieve slower rates of convergence thanother methods such as AIC and leave-one-out cross-validation. On the other hand, these other methods can be inconsistent. We identify the catchup phenomenon as a novel explanation for the slow convergence of Bayesian methods. Basedon this analysis we define the switch-distribution, a modification of the Bayesian model averaging distribution. We prove that in many situations model selection and prediction based on the switch-distribution is both consistent and achieves optimal convergence rates, thereby resolving the AIC-BIC dilemma. The method is practical; we give an efficient algorithm.

In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive representations ofstate (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a parameter learningalgorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply. We evaluate the quality ofour model with reinforcement learning by directly evaluating the control performance of the model.

While several studies focused on problems with continuous states, little attention has been deserved to tasks involving continuous actions.

Hierarchical penalizan'on is a generic framework for incorporating prior informa--

On-line handwriting recognition is unusual among sequence labelling tasks in that the underlying generator of the observed data, i.e. the movement of the pen, is recorded directly. However, the raw data can be difficult to interpret because each letter is spread over many pen locations. As a consequence, sophisticated pre-processing is required to obtain inputs suitable for conventional sequence labelling algorithms, such as HMMs. In this paper we describe a system capable of directly transcribing raw on-line handwriting data. The system consists of a recurrent neural network trained for sequence labelling, combined with a probabilistic language model. In experiments on an unconstrained on-line database, we record excellent results using either raw or pre-processed data, well outperforming a benchmark HMM in both cases.