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Dimension reduction and variable selection in case control studies via regularized likelihood optimization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dimension reduction and variable selection are performed routinely in case-control studies, but the literature on the theoretical aspects of the resulting estimates is scarce. We bring our contribution to this literature by studying estimators obtained via L1 penalized likelihood optimization. We show that the optimizers of the L1 penalized retrospective likelihood coincide with the optimizers of the L1 penalized prospective likelihood. This extends the results of Prentice and Pyke (1979), obtained for non-regularized likelihoods. We establish both the sup-norm consistency of the odds ratio, after model selection, and the consistency of subset selection of our estimators. The novelty of our theoretical results consists in the study of these properties under the case-control sampling scheme. Our results hold for selection performed over a large collection of candidate variables, with cardinality allowed to depend and be greater than the sample size. We complement our theoretical results with a novel approach of determining data driven tuning parameters, based on the bisection method. The resulting procedure offers significant computational savings when compared with grid search based methods. All our numerical experiments support strongly our theoretical findings.


Likelihood-based semi-supervised model selection with applications to speech processing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In conventional supervised pattern recognition tasks, model selection is typically accomplished by minimizing the classification error rate on a set of so-called development data, subject to ground-truth labeling by human experts or some other means. In the context of speech processing systems and other large-scale practical applications, however, such labeled development data are typically costly and difficult to obtain. This article proposes an alternative semi-supervised framework for likelihood-based model selection that leverages unlabeled data by using trained classifiers representing each model to automatically generate putative labels. The errors that result from this automatic labeling are shown to be amenable to results from robust statistics, which in turn provide for minimax-optimal censored likelihood ratio tests that recover the nonparametric sign test as a limiting case. This approach is then validated experimentally using a state-of-the-art automatic speech recognition system to select between candidate word pronunciations using unlabeled speech data that only potentially contain instances of the words under test. Results provide supporting evidence for the utility of this approach, and suggest that it may also find use in other applications of machine learning.


Manipulability of Single Transferable Vote

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For many voting rules, it is NP-hard to compute a successful manipulation. However, NP-hardness only bounds the worst-case complexity. Recent theoretical results suggest that manipulation may often be easy in practice. We study empirically the cost of manipulating the single transferable vote (STV) rule. This was one of the first rules shown to be NP-hard to manipulate. It also appears to be one of the harder rules to manipulate since it involves multiple rounds and since, unlike many other rules, it is NP-hard for a single agent to manipulate without weights on the votes or uncertainty about how the other agents have voted. In almost every election in our experiments, it was easy to compute how a single agent could manipulate the election or to prove that manipulation by a single agent was impossible. It remains an interesting open question if manipulation by a coalition of agents is hard to compute in practice.


A Geometric Approach to Sample Compression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Sample Compression Conjecture of Littlestone & Warmuth has remained unsolved for over two decades. This paper presents a systematic geometric investigation of the compression of finite maximum concept classes. Simple arrangements of hyperplanes in Hyperbolic space, and Piecewise-Linear hyperplane arrangements, are shown to represent maximum classes, generalizing the corresponding Euclidean result. A main result is that PL arrangements can be swept by a moving hyperplane to unlabeled d-compress any finite maximum class, forming a peeling scheme as conjectured by Kuzmin & Warmuth. A corollary is that some d-maximal classes cannot be embedded into any maximum class of VC dimension d+k, for any constant k. The construction of the PL sweeping involves Pachner moves on the one-inclusion graph, corresponding to moves of a hyperplane across the intersection of d other hyperplanes. This extends the well known Pachner moves for triangulations to cubical complexes.


Multilingual Part-of-Speech Tagging: Two Unsupervised Approaches

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

We demonstrate the effectiveness of multilingual learning for unsupervised part-of-speech tagging. The central assumption of our work is that by combining cues from multiple languages, the structure of each becomes more apparent. We consider two ways of applying this intuition to the problem of unsupervised part-of-speech tagging: a model that directly merges tag structures for a pair of languages into a single sequence and a second model which instead incorporates multilingual context using latent variables. Both approaches are formulated as hierarchical Bayesian models, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling techniques for inference. Our results demonstrate that by incorporating multilingual evidence we can achieve impressive performance gains across a range of scenarios. We also found that performance improves steadily as the number of available languages increases.


Cross-lingual Annotation Projection for Semantic Roles

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

This article considers the task of automatically inducing role-semantic annotations in the FrameNet paradigm for new languages. We propose a general framework that is based on annotation projection, phrased as a graph optimization problem. It is relatively inexpensive and has the potential to reduce the human effort involved in creating role-semantic resources. Within this framework, we present projection models that exploit lexical and syntactic information. We provide an experimental evaluation on an English-German parallel corpus which demonstrates the feasibility of inducing high-precision German semantic role annotation both for manually and automatically annotated English data.


A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Frame Representation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many signal processing problems, it may be fruitful to represent the signal under study in a frame. If a probabilistic approach is adopted, it becomes then necessary to estimate the hyper-parameters characterizing the probability distribution of the frame coefficients. This problem is difficult since in general the frame synthesis operator is not bijective. Consequently, the frame coefficients are not directly observable. This paper introduces a hierarchical Bayesian model for frame representation. The posterior distribution of the frame coefficients and model hyper-parameters is derived. Hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are subsequently proposed to sample from this posterior distribution. The generated samples are then exploited to estimate the hyper-parameters and the frame coefficients of the target signal. Validation experiments show that the proposed algorithms provide an accurate estimation of the frame coefficients and hyper-parameters. Application to practical problems of image denoising show the impact of the resulting Bayesian estimation on the recovered signal quality.


Different goals in multiscale simulations and how to reach them

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper we sum up our works on multiscale programs, mainly simulations. We first start with describing what multiscaling is about, how it helps perceiving signal from a background noise in a ?ow of data for example, for a direct perception by a user or for a further use by another program. We then give three examples of multiscale techniques we used in the past, maintaining a summary, using an environmental marker introducing an history in the data and finally using a knowledge on the behavior of the different scales to really handle them at the same time.


Manipulating Tournaments in Cup and Round Robin Competitions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In sports competitions, teams can manipulate the result by, for instance, throwing games. We show that we can decide how to manipulate round robin and cup competitions, two of the most popular types of sporting competitions in polynomial time. In addition, we show that finding the minimal number of games that need to be thrown to manipulate the result can also be determined in polynomial time. Finally, we show that there are several different variations of standard cup competitions where manipulation remains polynomial.


Time Production and Representation in a Conceptual and Computational Cognitive Model

AAAI Conferences

Time perception and inferences there from are of critical importance to many autonomous agents. But time is not perceived directly by any sensory organ. We argue that time is constructed by cognitive processes. Here we present a model for time perception that concentrates on succession and duration, and that generates these concepts and others, such as continuity, immediate present duration, and lengths of time. These concepts are grounded through the perceptual process itself. The LIDA cognitive model is used to illustrate these ideas.