We propose a novel technique to assess functional brain connectivity in EEG/MEG signals. Our method, called Sparsely-Connected Sources Analysis (SCSA), can overcome the problem of volume conduction by modeling neural data innovatively with the following ingredients: (a) the EEG is assumed to be a linear mixture of correlated sources following a multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) model, (b) the demixing is estimated jointly with the source MVAR parameters, (c) overfitting is avoided by using the Group Lasso penalty. This approach allows to extract the appropriate level cross-talk between the extracted sources and in this manner we obtain a sparse data-driven model of functional connectivity. We demonstrate the usefulness of SCSA with simulated data, and compare to a number of existing algorithms with excellent results.

The art of solving the Mastermind puzzle was initiated by Donald Knuth and is already more than 30 years old; despite that, it still receives much attention in operational research and computer games journals, not to mention the nature-inspired stochastic algorithm literature. In this paper we try to suggest a strategy that will allow nature-inspired algorithms to obtain results as good as those based on exhaustive search strategies; in order to do that, we first review, compare and improve current approaches to solving the puzzle; then we test one of these strategies with an estimation of distribution algorithm. Finally, we try to find a strategy that falls short of being exhaustive, and is then amenable for inclusion in nature inspired algorithms (such as evolutionary or particle swarm algorithms). This paper proves that by the incorporation of local entropy into the fitness function of the evolutionary algorithm it becomes a better player than a random one, and gives a rule of thumb on how to incorporate the best heuristic strategies to evolutionary algorithms without incurring in an excessive computational cost.

Frequent episode discovery is a popular framework for pattern discovery in event streams. An episode is a partially ordered set of nodes with each node associated with an event type. Efficient (and separate) algorithms exist for episode discovery when the associated partial order is total (serial episode) and trivial (parallel episode). In this paper, we propose efficient algorithms for discovering frequent episodes with general partial orders. These algorithms can be easily specialized to discover serial or parallel episodes. Also, the algorithms are flexible enough to be specialized for mining in the space of certain interesting subclasses of partial orders. We point out that there is an inherent combinatorial explosion in frequent partial order mining and most importantly, frequency alone is not a sufficient measure of interestingness. We propose a new interestingness measure for general partial order episodes and a discovery method based on this measure, for filtering out uninteresting partial orders. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms.

A central problem in artificial intelligence is that of planning to maximize future reward under uncertainty in a partially observable environment. In this paper we propose and demonstrate a novel algorithm which accurately learns a model of such an environment directly from sequences of action-observation pairs. We then close the loop from observations to actions by planning in the learned model and recovering a policy which is near-optimal in the original environment. Specifically, we present an efficient and statistically consistent spectral algorithm for learning the parameters of a Predictive State Representation (PSR). We demonstrate the algorithm by learning a model of a simulated high-dimensional, vision-based mobile robot planning task, and then perform approximate point-based planning in the learned PSR. Analysis of our results shows that the algorithm learns a state space which efficiently captures the essential features of the environment. This representation allows accurate prediction with a small number of parameters, and enables successful and efficient planning.

Computer-based information technologies have been extensively used to help many organizations, private companies, and academic and education institutions manage their processes and information systems hereby become their nervous centre. The explosion of massive data sets created by businesses, science and governments necessitates intelligent and more powerful computing paradigms so that users can benefit from this data. Therefore most new-generation database applications demand intelligent information management to enhance efficient interactions between database and the users. Database systems support only a Boolean query model. A selection query on SQL database returns all those tuples that satisfy the conditions in the query.

The development of tools to provide insight into the behavioral response of a civilian population will greatly benefit the modeling and simulation community and have potential applications across multiple user communities in the U.S. Department of Defense. We present an overview of a modular agent-based modeling framework, grounded in the human behavioral and social theory, which is intended to represent a populations’ stance on issues as a function of their changing beliefs, values and interests. We utilize and integrate theories of narrative identity [1] and planned behavior [2] with macrosociological theories of heterogeneity and influence [3][4] to model civilian behavior in a conflict ecosystem. Communication between agents takes place across a social network developed using real data about the population under consideration, and essential services are implemented as objects within the model allowing for experimentation with different courses of action for development of civil service capacity. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the model, the current state of implementation, potential use cases, and the path forward for future work.

This paper presents an agent based framework for modeling of the formation and dynamics of pirate networks. The framework consists of (1) development of network formation mechanism and (2) formulation of pirate attack dynamics. Accordingly, the paper attempts to define the characteristics of Pirate Networks and to formulate the rules that govern the operation and evolution of Pirate Networks. We discuss the clan based social system that facilitate pirate formation as well as the pirate network inter-action with the hosting clan system. Using published material, empirical data and surveys the paper attempts to establish credible formation mechanism and operational characterization of pirate attacks. The proposed framework accounts for clan dynamics and the interplay of social, ecological and physical spaces. Finally we conclude with a discussion on exploratory modeling for the refinement of the proposed framework and for empirically grounding proposed simulations.

Given a set of known numbers, there are many measures of the degree of inhomogeneity within the set such as the standard deviation, the relative mean difference, and the Gini coefficient. This paper discusses conceptual issues (such as qualitative versus quantitative diversity, and the group as a population versus as a sample), desired properties (such as symmetry and invariance properties), and technical considerations (such as working with differences versus deviations, or absolute versus squared values) in choosing an index suitable for describing the degree of inhomogeneity or diversity in a group of people or computer agents. In particular, it is argued that the relative mean difference and the Gini coefficient are not well-suited as indexes of cultural diversity. This paper then addresses two apparently neglected inverse problems: Given a pre-specified degree of inhomogeneity, what set of unknown numbers has the desired degree of inhomogeneity? And, in particular, what set has the maximal possible degree of inhomogeneity? The solution requires that the set of permissible numbers be bounded with minimum and maximum values. A key benefit of such inverse procedures is that agent-based groups with pre-selected degrees of cultural diversity can be formed to test hypotheses using the full range of possible diversities and thereby avoid statistical problems due to restriction of range effects.

We construct a computer model that allows us to simulate the effect of counterinsurgency operations on a population of agents. We build a society of agents who are interconnected in an established social network. Each agent in this network engages in political discourse with other agents over the legitimacy of the existing government. Agents may decide to support an insurgency, join an insurgency, side with the existing government, or remain neutral over which group to support. Using this model we explore the relative importance of social network structure, influence effectiveness, and combat operation effectiveness in minimizing insurgent strength.

In this paper, we present AutoMed, an automated mediator for multi-issue bilateral negotiation under time constraints. AutoMed uses a qualitative model to represent the negotiators' preferences. It analyzes the negotiators' preferences, monitors the negotiations and proposes possible solutions for resolving the conflict. We conducted experiments in a simulated environment. The results show that negotiations mediated by AutoMed are concluded significantly faster than non-mediated ones and without any of the negotiators opting out. Furthermore, the subjects in the mediated negotiations are more satisfied from the resolutions than the subjects in the non-mediated negotiations.