We address the problem of estimating the ratio of two probability density functions (a.k.a.~the importance). The importance values can be used for various succeeding tasks such as non-stationarity adaptation or outlier detection. In this paper, we propose a new importance estimation method that has a closed-form solution; the leave-one-out cross-validation score can also be computed analytically. Therefore, the proposed method is computationally very efficient and numerically stable. We also elucidate theoretical properties of the proposed method such as the convergence rate and approximation error bound. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method is comparable to the best existing method in accuracy, while it is computationally more efficient than competing approaches.

Recent advances in neuroimaging techniques provide great potentials for effective diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia. Previous studies have shown that AD is closely related to the alternation in the functional brain network, i.e., the functional connectivity among different brain regions. In this paper, we consider the problem of learning functional brain connectivity from neuroimaging, which holds great promise for identifying image-based markers used to distinguish Normal Controls (NC), patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), and patients with AD. More specifically, we study sparse inverse covariance estimation (SICE), also known as exploratory Gaussian graphical models, for brain connectivity modeling. In particular, we apply SICE to learn and analyze functional brain connectivity patterns from different subject groups, based on a key property of SICE, called the "monotone property" we established in this paper. Our experimental results on neuroimaging PET data of 42 AD, 116 MCI, and 67 NC subjects reveal several interesting connectivity patterns consistent with literature findings, and also some new patterns that can help the knowledge discovery of AD.

Empirical studies have documented cases of belief polarization, where two people withopposing prior beliefs both strengthen their beliefs after observing the same evidence. Belief polarization is frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality, but we demonstrate that this phenomenon is consistent with a fully Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization isnot only possible but relatively common within the set of Bayesian models that we consider. Suppose that Carol has requested a promotion at her company and has received a score of 50 on an aptitude test. Alice, one of the company's managers, began with a high opinion of Carol and became even more confident of her abilities after seeing her test score.

Contrast statistics of the majority of natural images conform to a Weibull distribution. This property of natural images may facilitate efficient and very rapid extraction of a scenes visual gist. Here we investigate whether a neural response model based on the Weibull contrast distribution captures visual information that humans use to rapidly identify natural scenes. In a learning phase, we measure EEG activity of 32 subjects viewing brief flashes of 800 natural scenes. From these neural measurements and the contrast statistics of the natural image stimuli, we derive an across subject Weibull response model. We use this model to predict the responses to a large set of new scenes and estimate which scene the subject viewed by finding the best match between the model predictions and the observed EEG responses. In almost 90 percent of the cases our model accurately predicts the observed scene. Moreover, in most failed cases, the scene mistaken for the observed scene is visually similar to the observed scene itself. These results suggest that Weibull contrast statistics of natural images contain a considerable amount of scene gist information to warrant rapid identification of natural images.

There has been a clear distinction between induction or training time and diagnosis time active information acquisition. While active learning during induction focuses on acquiring data that promises to provide the best classification model, the goal at diagnosis time focuses completely on next features to observe about the test case at hand in order to make better predictions about the case. We introduce a model and inferential methods that breaks this distinction. The methods can be used to extend case libraries under a budget but, more fundamentally, provide a framework for guiding agents to collect data under scarce resources, focused by diagnostic challenges. This extension to active learning leads to a new class of policies for real-time diagnosis, where recommended information-gathering sequences include actions that simultaneously seek new data for the case at hand and for cases in the training set.

This paper presents the first data-dependent generalization bounds for non-i.i.d. settings based on the notion of Rademacher complexity. Our bounds extend to the non-i.i.d. case existing Rademacher complexity bounds derived for the i.i.d. setting. These bounds provide a strict generalization of the ones found in the i.i.d. case, and can also be used within the standard i.i.d. scenario. They apply to the standard scenario of beta-mixing stationary sequences examined in many previous studies of non-i.i.d. settings and benefit form the crucial advantages of Rademacher complexity over other measures of the complexity of hypothesis classes. In particular, they are data-dependent and measure the complexity of a class of hypotheses based on the training sample. The empirical Rademacher complexity can be estimated from finite samples and lead to tighter bounds.

Many transductive inference algorithms assume that distributions over training and test estimates should be related, e.g. by providing a large margin of separation on both sets. We use this idea to design a transduction algorithm which can be used without modification for classification, regression, and structured estimation. At its heart we exploit the fact that for a good learner the distributions over the outputs on training and test sets should match. This is a classical two-sample problem which can be solved efficiently in its most general form by using distance measures in Hilbert Space. It turns out that a number of existing heuristics can be viewed as special cases of our approach.

Research in animal learning and behavioral neuroscience has distinguished between two forms of action control: a habit-based form, which relies on stored action values, and a goal-directed form, which forecasts and compares action outcomes based on a model of the environment. While habit-based control has been the subject of extensive computational research, the computational principles underlying goal-directed control in animals have so far received less attention. In the present paper, we advance a computational framework for goal-directed control in animals and humans. We take three empirically motivated points as founding premises: (1) Neurons in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex represent action policies, (2) Neurons in orbitofrontal cortex represent rewards, and (3) Neural computation, across domains, can be appropriately understood as performing structured probabilistic inference. On a purely computational level, the resulting account relates closely to previous work using Bayesian inference to solve Markov decision problems, but extends this work by introducing a new algorithm, which provably converges on optimal plans. On a cognitive and neuroscientific level, the theory provides a unifying framework for several different forms of goal-directed action selection, placing emphasis on a novel form, within which orbitofrontal reward representations directly drive policy selection.

We present a correlated bigram LSA approach for unsupervised LM adaptation for automatic speech recognition. The model is trained using efficient variational EM and smoothed using the proposed fractional Kneser-Ney smoothing which handles fractional counts. We address the scalability issue to large training corpora via bootstrapping of bigram LSA from unigram LSA. For LM adaptation, unigram and bigram LSA are integrated into the background N-gram LM via marginal adaptation and linear interpolation respectively. Experimental results on the Mandarin RT04test set show that applying unigram and bigram LSA together yields 6%-8% relative perplexity reduction and 2.5% relative character error rate reduction whichis statistically significant compared to applying only unigram LSA. On the large-scale evaluation on Arabic, 3% relative word error rate reduction is achieved which is also statistically significant.

We present a new, massively parallel architecture for accelerating machine learning algorithms, based on arrays of variable-resolution arithmetic vector processing elements (VPE). Groups of VPEs operate in SIMD (single instruction multiple data) mode, and each group is connected to an independent memory bank. In this way memory bandwidth scales with the number of VPE, and the main data flows are local, keeping power dissipation low. With 256 VPEs, implemented on two FPGA (field programmable gate array) chips, we obtain a sustained speed of 19 GMACS (billion multiply-accumulate per sec.) for SVM training, and 86 GMACS for SVM classification. This performance is more than an order of magnitude higher than that of any FPGA implementation reported so far. The speed on one FPGA is similar to the fastest speeds published on a Graphics Processor for the MNIST problem, despite a clock rate of the FPGA that is six times lower. High performance at low clock rates makes this massively parallel architecture particularly attractive for embedded applications, where low power dissipation is critical. Tests with Convolutional Neural Networks and other learning algorithms are under way now.