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Explainable AI Isn't Enough! Rethinking Algorithmic Contestability
Freiesleben, Timo, Meding, Kristof, König, Gunnar
Machine learning systems increasingly make life-changing decisions about individuals, such as loan approvals, hiring, and cheating detection, raising a pressing question: how can individuals respond to negative decisions made by these opaque systems? While explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has largely focused on algorithmic recourse -- helping individuals change their features to obtain a desired outcome -- the parallel problem of algorithmic contestability -- helping individuals review and correct erroneous algorithmic decisions -- has received far less attention, despite its central ethical and legal importance. We trace this neglect to the absence of clear formal definitions and a systematic operationalization of contestability as an algorithmic problem. To address it, we propose an operational definition of contestability as a natural complement to recourse: contestability starts from the presumption that a decision may be incorrect and focuses on identifying evidence to challenge and potentially overturn it, whereas recourse assumes the decision is valid and instead provides pathways for changing it. We show that standard XAI explanations, such as counterfactuals, LIME, or Anchors, even when combined with human intuitions about decision continuity or monotonicity, reveal only errors in the neighborhood of the individual, but provide insufficient grounds for overturning the decision at hand. Going thus beyond traditional XAI, we identify three types of evidence warranting reversal according to the decision maker's own ethical standards: predictive multiplicity, incorrect feature values, and neglected overruling evidence. We argue that these render decisions normatively indefensible and thus successfully contestable. Finally, we analyze how existing EU legislation connects to our framework and argue that individuals already hold some legal rights to these forms of evidence.
SAFE Quantum Machine Learning with Variational Quantum Classifiers
Chen, Ying, Giudici, Paolo, Kolesnikov, Vasily, Recchia, Paolo
We propose a variational quantum classifier operating on high dimensional deep representations via amplitude encoding, stabilized by a learnable classical pre encoding layer.By combining normalized amplitude embeddings with bounded quantum observables, the resulting model induces a structured and smooth hypothesis class with controlled sensitivity to input variations. Model reliability is assessed using SAFE-AI metrics derived from the Cramer von Mises divergence, enabling consistent evaluation across accuracy, robustness, and explainability dimensions. Empirical results show that the proposed quantum model provides competitive predictive performance compared with strong classical baselines while exhibiting a more balanced SAFE reliability profile, with improved robustness to noise and stability under structured feature removal. These findings suggest that variational quantum circuits offer a principled mechanism for stability oriented SAFE learning in safety critical settings.
A numerical study into neural network surrogate model performance for uncertainty propagation
Neural network surrogate models have emerged as a promising approach to model solution fields for a wide variety of boundary value problems encountered in physical modeling. Stochastic problems represent an area of particularly high interest because of the potential to significantly reduce the repeated evaluation of expensive forward models via traditional numerical solvers when conducting parametric analysis. However, many studies found in the literature primarily focus on the ability of neural network surrogate models to represent deterministic samples or mean field solutions and largely overlook surrogate model performance at the tails of the distribution. The present study examines in detail the ability of neural network surrogate models to capture the full distribution of solution fields over the entire probability space, while emphasis is placed at the tails of the distribution. Serving as a canonical problem is the heat conduction equation with a highly stochastic source term, inducing extremely large variation in the thermal solution field. Comparisons are made between a classic feed-forward fully connected network and a Deep Operator Network architecture, using both data-driven and physics-informed loss functions. Results show that the worst-case prediction errors are an order of magnitude larger than the mean field error, highlighting the importance of the outlier samples. The large errors associated with extreme samples result from the networks having to extrapolate beyond the bounds of the training data. A method for identifying these samples is presented along with a discussion of potential approaches to account of their errors. Among the models considered, the fully connected neural network trained using a weak form residual loss performs best in handling these extrapolated inputs, achieving the highest prediction accuracy for the numerically produced datasets.
Skew-adaptive conformal prediction
F., Paulo C. Marques, Graziadei, Helton
We develop a skew-adaptive extension of split conformal prediction for regression. The method starts from an asymmetric interval family centered at a point prediction and uses the gauge approach to deduce the conformity score induced by this family. The inverse hyperbolic sine transform of signed scaled residuals provides the training target for an additional predictive model, whose role is to learn how predictive uncertainty should tilt across the feature space. The resulting procedure preserves the finite-sample marginal validity of split conformal prediction under exchangeability, while producing intervals that adapt to both local scale and local skewness. We also develop a calibration-sample-based estimator for comparing the expected relative future width of the skew-adaptive and classical scaled-score intervals. Experiments on a variety of datasets indicate gains in prediction interval efficiency over the scaled-score construction and conformalized quantile regression, and show that the proposed estimator closely matches the corresponding average width ratio observed on the test sample.
A Scalable Nonparametric Continuous-Time Survival Model through Numerical Quadrature
Lee, Chaeyeon, Kim, Sehwan, Do, Hyungrok
Flexible continuous-time survival modeling is critical for capturing complex time-varying hazard dynamics in high-dimensional data; however, training such models remains challenging due to the intractable integral required for likelihood estimation. We introduce QSurv, a scalable deep learning framework that enables nonparametric continuous-time modeling without relying on time discretization or restrictive distributional assumptions. We propose a training objective based on Gauss-Legendre numerical quadrature, which approximates the cumulative hazard with high-order accuracy while facilitating efficient end-to-end training via standard backpropagation. Furthermore, to effectively capture non-stationary hazard dynamics in complex architectures, we introduce time-conditioned low-rank adaptation, a mechanism that conditions general neural backbones on time by dynamically modulating weights via low-rank updates. We provide theoretical analysis establishing approximation error bounds for cumulative-hazard evaluation. Comprehensive experiments across synthetic benchmarks, large-scale real-world tabular datasets, and high-dimensional medical imaging tasks demonstrate that QSurv achieves competitive predictive performance with advantages in instantaneous hazard function estimation, enabling more interpretable characterization of time-varying risk patterns.
The Privacy Price of Tail-Risk Learning: Effective Tail Sample Size in Differentially Private CVaR Optimization
Differential privacy changes the effective sample size governing CVaR learning. For tail mass $τ$, the privacy-relevant sample size is not $n$, but $nτ$; equivalently, the effective private tail sample size is $εnτ$. Private CVaR excess risk decomposes into ordinary tail-risk statistical error and a privacy price. This decomposition is complete for scalar estimation and finite classes: scalar estimation has rate $Θ(B \min\{1,(nτ)^{-1/2}+(εnτ)^{-1}\})$, and finite classes of size $M$ have rate $Θ(B \min\{1,\sqrt{\log(2M)/(nτ)}+\log(2M)/(εnτ)\})$. These complete rates hold under pure DP, and their lower bounds extend to approximate DP in the stated small-$δ$ regimes. For convex Lipschitz learning, modular upper and lower reductions show that the CVaR-specific privacy term necessarily scales as $1/(εnτ)$, with dimension dependence inherited from private stochastic convex optimization. Together, these results identify ordinary private learning on $Θ(nτ)$ informative tail records as the canonical hard subproblem inside private CVaR learning.
Breaking the Finite-Sample Barrier in Entropy Coupling
Dependence among marginally constrained observations can break a finite-sample barrier. To formalize this phenomenon, we introduce the \emph{minimum list entropy coupling} $H(P\|Q_1,\dots,Q_m)$, the minimum conditional entropy $H(X|Y_1,\dots,Y_m)$ over all joint distributions with prescribed discrete marginals $X\sim P$ and $Y_i\sim Q_i$. Unlike classical formulations based on independent observations, our model allows $Y_1,\dots,Y_m$ to be arbitrarily dependent while keeping each marginal fixed. This enlarged coupling space reveals a sharp dichotomy: independent observations reduce residual uncertainty exponentially, whereas dependent observations can eliminate it exactly after finitely many samples. We characterize this zero-entropy regime through necessary and sufficient conditions and give concrete structural criteria under which it occurs. In particular, under mild support assumptions, zero entropy is achieved with $O(\log(1/P_{\min}))$ observations, where $P_{\min}$ is the minimum nonzero mass of $P$. We also develop a greedy algorithm with monotone approximation guarantees for computing $H(P\|Q_1,\dots,Q_m)$. Finally, we show that the same framework formalizes finite-sample limits in distribution-matching representation learning and randomness extraction, where zero entropy corresponds to exact recovery and exact extraction.
Why does Amazon have no Western rivals?
Why does Amazon have no Western rivals? Vitamins, repair tape and a jar of mango chutney - just some of what my household bought last month via Amazon's sprawling online shopping platform. We also shopped at the company's supermarket chain Whole Foods, streamed its TV shows, read books on Kindle e-readers, and browsed countless websites no doubt powered by Amazon Web Services (AWS), its highly profitable cloud-computing business. And that isn't half of the interconnected products and services offered by the global behemoth, which earlier this year overtook US superstore giant Walmart to become the world's largest company by annual sales. But why does Amazon, launched by Jeff Bezos in 1995 as an online bookstore out of a rented garage, have so few serious rivals in the West when it comes to e-commerce?
What would make the UK a better place to live? A new project aims to find out
What would make the UK a better place to live? People across the UK are being urged to share their vision for how their community and country's future should look, as part of a major new research project. The National Conversation is being launched with voice notes submitted by high-profile figures, including former footballer Gary Lineker, Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mirvis, and broadcaster Mariella Frostrup. Participants will be asked to complete a survey carried out by researchers from the University of Oxford and leave a 60-second voice note. AI models will then be used to analyse thousands of responses to map what could bring us together.
Inside the 'kill-zone' on Ukraine's front line, where new weapons have transformed war
Inside the'kill-zone' on Ukraine's front line, where new weapons have transformed war After 225 days stuck in a front-line foxhole, the Ukrainian infantryman's muscles were so weak he could barely walk. His commanders had tried five times to swap him with another soldier - but they could never reach him. Rotating soldiers on the front line in eastern Ukraine is extremely difficult because of the constant threat of drones. This area near Kostyantynivka is currently one of the most dangerous hotspots and the Ukrainian military admits that Russian forces have reached its outskirts. Known as Kenya, the infantryman took two days to walk 11km (6.8 miles) to get back to his brigade, avoiding mines and hiding from drones to get out.