A key challenge for policymakers in many developing countries is to decide which intervention or collection of interventions works best to improve learning outcomes in their schools. Our aim is to develop a causal model that explains student learning outcomes in terms of observable characteristics as well as conditions and processes difficult to observe directly. We start with a theoretical model based on the results of previous research, direct experience and experts’ knowledge in the field. This model is then refined through application of supervised learning methods to available data sets. Once calibrated with local data in a country, the model estimates the probability that a given intervention would affect learning outcomes.

We explore the prospect of inferring the epicenter and influences of seismic activity from changes in background phone communication activities logged at cell towers. In particular, we explore the perturbations in Rwandan call data invoked by an earthquake in February 2008 centered in the Lac Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Beyond the initial seismic event, we investigate the challenge of assessing the distribution of the persistence of needs over geographic regions, using the persistence of call anomalies after the earthquake as a proxy for lasting influences and the potential need for assistance. We also infer uncertainties in the inferences and consider the prospect of identifying the value of surveying the areas so that surveillance resources can be best triaged.

Cellular phones can be used as mobile sensors, continuously logging users’ behavior including movement, communication and proximity to others. While it is well understood that data generated from mobile phones includes a record of phone calls, there are also more sophisticated data types, such as Bluetooth or cell tower proximity logging, which reveal movement patterns and day-to-day human interactions. We explore the possibility of using mobile phone data to compare movement and communication patterns across cultures. The goal of this proof-of-concept study is to quantify behavior in order to compare different populations. We compare our ability to predict future calling behavior and movement patterns from the cellular phone data of subjects in two distinct groups: a set of university students at MIT in the United States and the University of Nairobi in Kenya. In addition, we show how Bluetooth data may be used to estimate the diffusion of an airborne pathogen outbreak in the different populations.

The gender divide in the access to technology in developing economies makes gender characterization and automatic gender identification two of the most critical needs for improving cell phone-based services. Gender identification has been typically solved using voice or image processing.   However, such techniques cannot be applied to cell phone networks mostly due to privacy concerns. In this paper, we present a study aimed at characterizing and automatically identifying the gender of a cell phone user in a developing economy based on behavioral, social and mobility variables. Our contributions are twofold: (1) understanding the role that gender plays on phone usage, and (2) evaluating common machine learning approaches for gender identification. The analysis was carried out using the encrypted CDRs (Call Detail Records) of approximately 10,000 users from a developing economy, whose gender was known a priori. Our results indicate that behavioral and social variables, including the number of input/output calls and the in degree/out degree of the social network, reveal statistically significant differences between male and female callers. Finally, we propose a new gender identification algorithm that can achieve classification rates of up to 80% when the percentage of predicted instances is reduced.

There is a wealth of information on the Web about any number of topics. Many communities in developing regions are often interested in information relating to specific topics. For example, health workers are interested in specific medical information regarding epidemic diseases in their region while teachers and students are interested in educational information relating to their curriculum. This paper presents the design of Contextual Information Portals, searchable information portals that contain a vertical slice of the Web about arbitrary topics tailored to a specific context. Contextual portals are particularly useful for communities that lack Internet or Web access or in regions with very poor network connectivity. This paper outlines the design space for constructing contextual information portals and describes the key technical challenges involved. We have implemented a proof-of-concept of our ideas, and performed an initial evaluation on a variety of topics relating to epidemiology, agriculture, and education.

This paper presents an approach for mining agricultural problems that have been accumulated in a textual database over a period of 5 years. The problems, which are accompanied by their solutions, offer a wealth of knowledge that can be used by decision makers, researchers, and farmers alike. However, this wealth of knowledge can not be unlocked without a) representing these problems in a structured format, and b) applying algorithms that can summarize and analyze this information. Towards the achievement of the first goal, a multi-faceted object extraction methodology is presented, and for the achievement of the second, association rules are employed. As a proof of concept, the tool was applied of a set of weed problems. The presented methodology can be modified to work with any help and support textual database where both problems and their solutions are present.

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major public health concern, resulting in an estimated 1.2 million deaths and 50 million injuries worldwide each year. In the developing world, RTAs are among the leading cause of death and injury; Ethiopia in particular experiences the highest rate of such accidents. Thus, methods to reduce accident severity are of great interest to traffic agencies and the public at large. In this work, we applied data mining technologies to link recorded road characteristics to accident severity in Ethiopia, and developed a set of rules that could be used by the Ethiopian Traffic Agency to improve safety.

Human trafficking is a multi-dimensional problem for which we have incomplete data, limited knowledge of the exploiters, and no understanding of the dynamics of the process. It is a problem that requires a larger, more complete database, understanding of key actors and their interactions in a dynamic environment. These methods exist in the areas of Data Mining, Machine Learning, Network Analysis, and Multi-agent systems. Using these methods, it is possible to create a model which is unique to detecting and preventing human trafficking. These methods can give applicable and successful solutions for different components of the problem of human trafficking. The goal is to build an intelligent system to enable collaboration and analysis, to identify and profile victims, traffickers, buyers, and exploiters, to predict human trafficking patterns, and to disrupt and destabilize human trafficking networks. In this paper, I will outline how some of these methods may be able to help analyze and model the dynamic phenomenon of human trafficking. The purpose is to see whether, using intelligent systems and appropriate collaboration and analysis tools, optimized intervention strategies can be created to profile victims and traffickers as well as impact, dissolve, and disrupt the human trafficking network in such a way that the network is unable to recover.

Some manufacturers provide benchmarks for individual sensors but we found no benchmarks that take a holistic view of the overall screening procedures and no benchmarks that take operator variability into account. Just adding up resources and manpower used is not an effective way for assessing systems where human decision-making and operator compliance to rules play a vital role. Our aim is to develop a decision support tool (cargo-screening system simulator) that will map the right technology and manpower to the right commodity-threat combination in order to maximise detection rates. In this paper we present our ideas for developing such a system and highlight the research challenges we have identified. Then we introduce our first case study and report on the progress we have made so far. Keywords: port security, cargo screening, modelling and simulation, decision support, detection rate matrix 1. INTRODUCTION The primary goal of cargo screening at sea ports and air ports is to detect human stowaways, conventional, nuclear, chemical and radiological weapons and other potential threats. This is an extremely difficult task due to the sheer volume of cargo being moved through ports between countries. For example in sea freight, 200 million containers are moved through 220 ports around the globe every year; this is 90% of all non bulk sea cargo (Dorndorf, Herbers, Panascia, and Zimmermann 2007). Little is known about the efficiency of current cargo screening processes as few benchmarks exist against which they could be measured (e.g.

Previous work has shown that robot navigation systems that employ an architecture based upon the idiotypic network theory of the immune system have an advantage over control techniques that rely on reinforcement learning only. This is thought to be a result of intelligent behaviour selection on the part of the idiotypic robot. In this paper an attempt is made to imitate idiotypic dynamics by creating controllers that use reinforcement with a number of different probabilistic schemes to select robot behaviour. The aims are to show that the idiotypic system is not merely performing some kind of periodic random behaviour selection, and to try to gain further insight into the processes that govern the idiotypic mechanism. Trials are carried out using simulated Pioneer robots that undertake navigation exercises. Results show that a scheme that boosts the probability of selecting highly-ranked alternative behaviours to 50% during stall conditions comes closest to achieving the properties of the idiotypic system, but remains unable to match it in terms of all round performance.