This paper treats the problem of learning the interaction structure of a spatiotemporal graphical model for a discrete state and discrete time stochastic process known as the susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR) model. The presence of spatial interactions cause adjacent nodes in the graph to affect each others states over time. Learning the topology of this graph is known as model selection. We cast this graphical model selection problem as a penalized likelihood problem, resulting in a convex program for which convex optimization solvers can be applied. SIR spatiotemporal graphical models are commonly used in modeling the random propagation of information between nodes in large networks in bioinformatics, signal processing, public health, and national security (4; 9; 21). Knowing the network link structure allows accurate prediction of individual node states and can aid the development of control and intervention strategies for such networks. This paper develops a tractable method to estimate the topology of the network for the SIR spatiotemporal graphical model from empirical data. Exact solutions of the graphical model selection problem is NP hard due to the combinatorial nature of enumeration through the discrete space of possible graph topologies.

Terrorism has led to many problems in Thai societies, not only property damage but also civilian casualties. Predicting terrorism activities in advance can help prepare and manage risk from sabotage by these activities. This paper proposes a framework focusing on event classification in terrorism domain using fuzzy inference systems (FISs). Each FIS is a decision-making model combining fuzzy logic and approximate reasoning. It is generated in five main parts: the input interface, the fuzzification interface, knowledge base unit, decision making unit and output defuzzification interface. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a FIS model adapted by combining the fuzzy logic and neural network. The ANFIS utilizes automatic identification of fuzzy logic rules and adjustment of membership function (MF). Moreover, neural network can directly learn from data set to construct fuzzy logic rules and MF implemented in various applications. FIS settings are evaluated based on two comparisons. The first evaluation is the comparison between unstructured and structured events using the same FIS setting. The second comparison is the model settings between FIS and ANFIS for classifying structured events. The data set consists of news articles related to terrorism events in three southern provinces of Thailand. The experimental results show that the classification performance of the FIS resulting from structured events achieves satisfactory accuracy and is better than the unstructured events. In addition, the classification of structured events using ANFIS gives higher performance than the events using only FIS in the prediction of terrorism events.

This paper proposes a method to construct an adaptive agent that is universal with respect to a given class of experts, where each expert is an agent that has been designed specifically for a particular environment. This adaptive control problem is formalized as the problem of minimizing the relative entropy of the adaptive agent from the expert that is most suitable for the unknown environment. If the agent is a passive observer, then the optimal solution is the well-known Bayesian predictor. However, if the agent is active, then its past actions need to be treated as causal interventions on the I/O stream rather than normal probability conditions. Here it is shown that the solution to this new variational problem is given by a stochastic controller called the Bayesian control rule, which implements adaptive behavior as a mixture of experts. Furthermore, it is shown that under mild assumptions, the Bayesian control rule converges to the control law of the most suitable expert.

We present in this paper some examples of how to compute by hand the PCR5 fusion rule for three sources, so the reader will better understand its mechanism. We also take into consideration the importance of sources, which is different from the classical discounting of sources.

The outcome of a functional genomics pipeline is usually a partial list of genomic features, ranked by their relevance in modelling biological phenotype in terms of a classification or regression model. Due to resampling protocols or just within a meta-analysis comparison, instead of one list it is often the case that sets of alternative feature lists (possibly of different lengths) are obtained. Here we introduce a method, based on the algebraic theory of symmetric groups, for studying the variability between lists ("list stability") in the case of lists of unequal length. We provide algorithms evaluating stability for lists embedded in the full feature set or just limited to the features occurring in the partial lists. The method is demonstrated first on synthetic data in a gene filtering task and then for finding gene profiles on a recent prostate cancer dataset.

In density estimation task, maximum entropy model (Maxent) can effectively use reliable prior information via certain constraints, i.e., linear constraints without empirical parameters. However, reliable prior information is often insufficient, and the selection of uncertain constraints becomes necessary but poses considerable implementation complexity. Improper setting of uncertain constraints can result in overfitting or underfitting. To solve this problem, a generalization of Maxent, under Tsallis entropy framework, is proposed. The proposed method introduces a convex quadratic constraint for the correction of (expected) Tsallis entropy bias (TEB). Specifically, we demonstrate that the expected Tsallis entropy of sampling distributions is smaller than the Tsallis entropy of the underlying real distribution. This expected entropy reduction is exactly the (expected) TEB, which can be expressed by a closed-form formula and act as a consistent and unbiased correction. TEB indicates that the entropy of a specific sampling distribution should be increased accordingly. This entails a quantitative re-interpretation of the Maxent principle. By compensating TEB and meanwhile forcing the resulting distribution to be close to the sampling distribution, our generalized TEBC Maxent can be expected to alleviate the overfitting and underfitting. We also present a connection between TEB and Lidstone estimator. As a result, TEB-Lidstone estimator is developed by analytically identifying the rate of probability correction in Lidstone. Extensive empirical evaluation shows promising performance of both TEBC Maxent and TEB-Lidstone in comparison with various state-of-the-art density estimation methods.

Abstract--This paper discusses the knowledge integration of clinical information extracted from distributed medical ontology in order to ameliorate a machine learning-based multi-label coding assignment system. The proposed approach is implemented using a decision tree based cascade hierarchical technique on the university hospital data for patients with Coronary Heart Disease (CHD). The preliminary results obtained show a satisfactory finding. An ontology is a specification of a conceptualization that defines and/or specifies the concepts, relationships, and other distinctions that are relevant for modeling a domain. Such specification takes the form of the definitions of representational vocabulary (classes, relations, and so on), which provide meanings to the vocabulary and formal constraints on its coherent use [3].

Sampling-based motion planners are an effective means for generating collision-free motion paths. However, the quality of these motion paths (with respect to quality measures such as path length, clearance, smoothness or energy) is often notoriously low, especially in high-dimensional configuration spaces. We introduce a simple algorithm for merging an arbitrary number of input motion paths into a hybrid output path of superior quality, for a broad and general formulation of path quality. Our approach is based on the observation that the quality of certain sub-paths within each solution may be higher than the quality of the entire path. A dynamic-programming algorithm, which we recently developed for comparing and clustering multiple motion paths, reduces the running time of the merging algorithm significantly. We tested our algorithm in motion-planning problems with up to 12 degrees of freedom. We show that our algorithm is able to merge a handful of input paths produced by several different motion planners to produce output paths of much higher quality.

We propose in this paper an exploratory analysis algorithm for functional data. The method partitions a set of functions into $K$ clusters and represents each cluster by a simple prototype (e.g., piecewise constant). The total number of segments in the prototypes, $P$, is chosen by the user and optimally distributed among the clusters via two dynamic programming algorithms. The practical relevance of the method is shown on two real world datasets.

We consider the problem of large-scale inference on the row or column variables of data in the form of a matrix. Often this data is transposable, meaning that both the row variables and column variables are of potential interest. An example of this scenario is detecting significant genes in microarrays when the samples or arrays may be dependent due to underlying relationships. We study the effect of both row and column correlations on commonly used test-statistics, null distributions, and multiple testing procedures, by explicitly modeling the covariances with the matrix-variate normal distribution. Using this model, we give both theoretical and simulation results revealing the problems associated with using standard statistical methodology on transposable data. We solve these problems by estimating the row and column covariances simultaneously, with transposable regularized covariance models, and de-correlating or sphering the data as a pre-processing step. Under reasonable assumptions, our method gives test statistics that follow the scaled theoretical null distribution and are approximately independent. Simulations based on various models with structured and observed covariances from real microarray data reveal that our method offers substantial improvements in two areas: 1) increased statistical power and 2) correct estimation of false discovery rates.