We derive generalization error bounds for stationary univariate autoregressive (AR) models. We show that imposing stationarity is enough to control the Gaussian complexity without further regularization. This lets us use structural risk minimization for model selection. We demonstrate our methods by predicting interest rate movements.

This paper addresses the problem of inferring sparse causal networks modeled by multivariate auto-regressive (MAR) processes. Conditions are derived under which the Group Lasso (gLasso) procedure consistently estimates sparse network structure. The key condition involves a "false connection score." In particular, we show that consistent recovery is possible even when the number of observations of the network is far less than the number of parameters describing the network, provided that the false connection score is less than one. The false connection score is also demonstrated to be a useful metric of recovery in non-asymptotic regimes. The conditions suggest a modified gLasso procedure which tends to improve the false connection score and reduce the chances of reversing the direction of causal influence. Computational experiments and a real network based electrocorticogram (ECoG) simulation study demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

In the recent literature of Artificial Intelligence, an intensive research effort has been spent, for various algebras of qualitative relations used in the representation of temporal and spatial knowledge, on the problem of classifying the computational complexity of reasoning problems for subsets of algebras. The main purpose of these researches is to describe a restricted set of maximal tractable subalgebras, ideally in an exhaustive fashion with respect to the hosting algebras. In this paper we introduce a novel algebra for reasoning about Spatial Congruence, show that the satisfiability problem in the spatial algebra MC-4 is NP-complete, and present a complete classification of tractability in the algebra, based on the individuation of three maximal tractable subclasses, one containing the basic relations. The three algebras are formed by 14, 10 and 9 relations out of 16 which form the full algebra.

This paper investigates the problems arising in the construction of a program to play the game of contract bridge. These problems include both the difficulty of solving the game's perfect information variant, and techniques needed to address the fact that bridge is not, in fact, a perfect information game. GIB, the program being described, involves five separate technical advances: partition search, the practical application of Monte Carlo techniques to realistic problems, a focus on achievable sets to solve problems inherent in the Monte Carlo approach, an extension of alpha-beta pruning from total orders to arbitrary distributive lattices, and the use of squeaky wheel optimization to find approximately optimal solutions to cardplay problems. GIB is currently believed to be of approximately expert caliber, and is currently the strongest computer bridge program in the world.

In this paper, we present algorithms that perform gradient ascent of the average reward in a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). These algorithms are based on GPOMDP, an algorithm introduced in a companion paper (Baxter and Bartlett, this volume), which computes biased estimates of the performance gradient in POMDPs. The algorithm's chief advantages are that it uses only one free parameter beta, which has a natural interpretation in terms of bias-variance trade-off, it requires no knowledge of the underlying state, and it can be applied to infinite state, control and observation spaces. We show how the gradient estimates produced by GPOMDP can be used to perform gradient ascent, both with a traditional stochastic-gradient algorithm, and with an algorithm based on conjugate-gradients that utilizes gradient information to bracket maxima in line searches. Experimental results are presented illustrating both the theoretical results of (Baxter and Bartlett, this volume) on a toy problem, and practical aspects of the algorithms on a number of more realistic problems.

Mutation has traditionally been regarded as an important operator in evolutionary algorithms. In particular, there have been many experimental studies which showed the effectiveness of adapting mutation rates for various static optimization problems. Given the perceived effectiveness of adaptive and self-adaptive mutation for static optimization problems, there have been speculations that adaptive and self-adaptive mutation can benefit dynamic optimization problems even more since adaptation and self-adaptation are capable of following a dynamic environment. However, few theoretical results are available in analyzing rigorously evolutionary algorithms for dynamic optimization problems. It is unclear when adaptive and self-adaptive mutation rates are likely to be useful for evolutionary algorithms in solving dynamic optimization problems. This paper provides the first rigorous analysis of adaptive mutation and its impact on the computation times of evolutionary algorithms in solving certain dynamic optimization problems. More specifically, for both individual-based and population-based EAs, we have shown that any time-variable mutation rate scheme will not significantly outperform a fixed mutation rate on some dynamic optimization problem instances. The proofs also offer some insights into conditions under which any time-variable mutation scheme is unlikely to be useful and into the relationships between the problem characteristics and algorithmic features (e.g., different mutation schemes).

We describe and evaluate the algorithmic techniques that are used in the FF planning system. Like the HSP system, FF relies on forward state space search, using a heuristic that estimates goal distances by ignoring delete lists. Unlike HSP's heuristic, our method does not assume facts to be independent. We introduce a novel search strategy that combines hill-climbing with systematic search, and we show how other powerful heuristic information can be extracted and used to prune the search space. FF was the most successful automatic planner at the recent AIPS-2000 planning competition. We review the results of the competition, give data for other benchmark domains, and investigate the reasons for the runtime performance of FF compared to HSP.

Enforcing local consistencies is one of the main features of constraint reasoning. Which level of local consistency should be used when searching for solutions in a constraint network is a basic question. Arc consistency and partial forms of arc consistency have been widely studied, and have been known for sometime through the forward checking or the MAC search algorithms. Until recently, stronger forms of local consistency remained limited to those that change the structure of the constraint graph, and thus, could not be used in practice, especially on large networks. This paper focuses on the local consistencies that are stronger than arc consistency, without changing the structure of the network, i.e., only removing inconsistent values from the domains. In the last five years, several such local consistencies have been proposed by us or by others. We make an overview of all of them, and highlight some relations between them. We compare them both theoretically and experimentally, considering their pruning efficiency and the time required to enforce them.

Designing the dialogue policy of a spoken dialogue system involves many nontrivial choices. This paper presents a reinforcement learning approach for automatically optimizing a dialogue policy, which addresses the technical challenges in applying reinforcement learning to a working dialogue system with human users. We report on the design, construction and empirical evaluation of NJFun, an experimental spoken dialogue system that provides users with access to information about fun things to do in New Jersey. Our results show that by optimizing its performance via reinforcement learning, NJFun measurably improves system performance.

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide useful tools for modeling dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for representing the topology of environments such as road networks and office buildings, which are typical for robot navigation and planning. The work presented here describes a formal framework for incorporating readily available odometric information and geometrical constraints into both the models and the algorithm that learns them. By taking advantage of such information, learning HMMs/POMDPs can be made to generate better solutions and require fewer iterations, while being robust in the face of data reduction. Experimental results, obtained from both simulated and real robot data, demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.