We propose a new approach to the theoretical analysis of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP) and the Bethe free energy (BFE) by establishing a formula to connect LBP and BFE with a graph zeta function. The proposed approach is applicable to a wide class of models including multinomial and Gaussian types. The connection derives a number of new theoretical results on LBP and BFE. This paper focuses two of such topics. One is the analysis of the region where the Hessian of the Bethe free energy is positive definite, which derives the non-convexity of BFE for graphs with multiple cycles, and a condition of convexity on a restricted set. This analysis also gives a new condition for the uniqueness of the LBP fixed point. The other result is to clarify the relation between the local stability of a fixed point of LBP and local minima of the BFE, which implies, for example, that a locally stable fixed point of the Gaussian LBP is a local minimum of the Gaussian Bethe free energy.

Deciding how to act in partially observable environments remains an active area of research. Identifying good sequences of decisions is particularly challenging when good control performance requires planning multiple steps into the future in domains with many states. Towards addressing this challenge, we present an online, forward-search algorithm called the Posterior Belief Distribution (PBD). PBD leverages a novel method for calculating the posterior distribution over beliefs that result after a sequence of actions is taken, given the set of observation sequences that could be received during this process. This method allows us to efficiently evaluate the expected reward of a sequence of primitive actions, which we refer to as macro-actions. We present a formal analysis of our approach, and examine its performance on two very large simulation experiments: scientific exploration and a target monitoring domain. We also demonstrate our algorithm being used to control a real robotic helicopter in a target monitoring experiment, which suggests that our approach has practical potential for planning in real-world, large partially observable domains where a multi-step lookahead is required to achieve good performance.

Reinforcement learning has solid foundations, but becomes inefficient in partially observed (non-Markovian) environments. Thus, a learning agent -born with a representation and a policy- might wish to investigate to what extent the Markov property holds. We propose a learning architecture that utilizes combinatorial policy optimization to overcome non-Markovity and to develop efficient behaviors, which are easy to inherit, tests the Markov property of the behavioral states, and corrects against non-Markovity by running a deterministic factored Finite State Model, which can be learned. We illustrate the properties of architecture in the near deterministic Ms. Pac-Man game. We analyze the architecture from the point of view of evolutionary, individual, and social learning.

Rules in logic programming encode information about mutual interdependencies between literals that is not captured by any of the commonly used semantics. This information becomes essential as soon as a program needs to be modified or further manipulated. We argue that, in these cases, a program should not be viewed solely as the set of its models. Instead, it should be viewed and manipulated as the set of sets of models of each rule inside it. With this in mind, we investigate and highlight relations between the SE-model semantics and individual rules. We identify a set of representatives of rule equivalence classes induced by SE-models, and so pinpoint the exact expressivity of this semantics with respect to a single rule. We also characterise the class of sets of SE-interpretations representable by a single rule. Finally, we discuss the introduction of two notions of equivalence, both stronger than strong equivalence [1] and weaker than strong update equivalence [2], which seem more suitable whenever the dependency information found in rules is of interest.

Bankruptcy prediction is very important for all the organization since it affects the economy and rise many social problems with high costs. There are large number of techniques have been developed to predict the bankruptcy, which helps the decision makers such as investors and financial analysts. One of the bankruptcy prediction models is the hybrid model using Fuzzy C-means clustering and MARS, which uses static ratios taken from the bank financial statements for prediction, which has its own theoretical advantages. The performance of existing bankruptcy model can be improved by selecting the best features dynamically depend on the nature of the firm. This dynamic selection can be accomplished by Genetic Algorithm and it improves the performance of prediction model..

Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a new classifier that satisfies simultaneously the two following properties with high probability: (i) its probability of type I error is below a pre-specified level and (ii), it has probability of type II error close to the minimum possible. The proposed classifier is obtained by solving an optimization problem with an empirical objective and an empirical constraint. New techniques to handle such problems are developed and have consequences on chance constrained programming.

The global objective of this work is to provide practical optimization methods to companies involved in inventory routing problems, taking into account this new type of data. Also, companies are sometimes not able to deal with changing plans every period and would like to adopt regular structures for serving customers.

Traditional learning-based coreference resolvers operate by training the mention-pair model for determining whether two mentions are coreferent or not. Though conceptually simple and easy to understand, the mention-pair model is linguistically rather unappealing and lags far behind the heuristic-based coreference models proposed in the pre-statistical NLP era in terms of sophistication. Two independent lines of recent research have attempted to improve the mention-pair model, one by acquiring the mention-ranking model to rank preceding mentions for a given anaphor, and the other by training the entity-mention model to determine whether a preceding cluster is coreferent with a given mention. We propose a cluster-ranking approach to coreference resolution, which combines the strengths of the mention-ranking model and the entity-mention model, and is therefore theoretically more appealing than both of these models. In addition, we seek to improve cluster rankers via two extensions: (1) lexicalization and (2) incorporating knowledge of anaphoricity by jointly modeling anaphoricity determination and coreference resolution. Experimental results on the ACE data sets demonstrate the superior performance of cluster rankers to competing approaches as well as the effectiveness of our two extensions.

We examine the class of languages that can be defined entirely in terms of provability in an extension of the sorted type theory (Ty_n) by embedding the logic of phonologies, without introduction of special types for syntactic entities. This class is proven to precisely coincide with the class of logically closed languages that may be thought of as functions from expressions to sets of logically equivalent Ty_n terms. For a specific sub-class of logically closed languages that are described by finite sets of rules or rule schemata, we find effective procedures for building a compact Ty_n representation, involving a finite number of axioms or axiom schemata. The proposed formalism is characterized by some useful features unavailable in a two-component architecture of a language model. A further specialization and extension of the formalism with a context type enable effective account of intensional and dynamic semantics.

Object detection and image reconstruction for noisy images are two of the cornerstone problems in image analysis. In this paper, we propose a new efficient technique for quick detection of objects in noisy images. Our approach uses mathematical percolation theory. Detection of objects in noisy images is the most basic problem of image analysis. Indeed, when one looks at a noisy image, the first question to ask is whether there is any object at all. This is also a primary question of interest in such diverse fields as, for example, cancer detection (Ricci-Vitiani et al. (2007)), automated urban analysis (Negri et al. (2006)), detection of cracks in buried pipes (Sinha and Fieguth (2006)), and other possible applications in astronomy, electron microscopy and neurology. Moreover, if there is just a random noise in the picture, it doesn't make sense to run computationally intensive procedures for image reconstruction for this particular picture.